The Seahawks face another of the NFL’s top running backs in Christian McCaffrey. Usually stopping a player like him is key to the win. Maybe not this time.
Before we get to my premise, let’s establish the credentials of Christian McCaffrey for all of you non-believers out there. McCaffrey ranks 10th in rushing with 632 yards. Add his 496 yards receiving and his eight total touchdowns, and it’s clear that McCaffrey is a top running back. So the Seahawks face yet another of the league’s most dangerous offensive players.
Fun aside – or maybe not so fun. Seattle has played seven of the nine running backs with the highest average yards per carry this year. Maybe we’re getting off light; McCaffrey is only 16th on that list. For the record, Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and Todd Gurley (once) all ran for more than their average against Seattle. Aaron Jones, Phillip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson and Todd Gurley (once) ran for less than their average when facing the Hawks.
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I don’t think anyone would argue that Jones and Lindsay are as good as Elliott and Gordon, so maybe the cream does rise to the top. Then again, Gurley wasn’t at his best in his game at Seattle, not when it comes to average yards per carry. The Seahawks lost when Gordon (and to a lesser extent) Ekeler went off for the Chargers. On the flip side, the Hawks did beat Dallas despite Zeke’s big game. A few key drops by Elliott did help Seattle’s cause.
Seahawks have had ups and downs with top backs
The Rams beat Seattle both times, whether Gurley had a good game (113 total yards and three touchdowns on 26 touches) or a huge game (160 total yards and one score on 19 touches). It’s more illustrative to say the Seahawks shut down Johnson and Jones, and subsequently beat both the Lions and Packers. It certainly helps to hold the running game down, but it doesn’t necessarily translate to a win. And a big game by the opposing back doesn’t always mean a loss, either. Elliot’s 127 yards was the most given up by the Hawks this season, but he still wound up with the loss.
Let’s get back to Mr. McCaffrey. He’s had huge games, like 184 yards in a win against the Bengals. He’s had his share of lesser outcomes, like 20 yards in a loss versus the Redskins. He did add 46 receiving yards in that game, but his 66 yards from scrimmage was his second lowest total for the year. He was shut out of the end zone and the Panthers lost 23-17.
Here’s where it gets interesting. I know, finally, right? McCaffrey’s worst overall game of the season was against the Baltimore Ravens. He was held to 45 yards in 14 carries, with just 11 yards on 4 catches. However, he scored twice and the Panthers prevailed 36-21. In Carolina’s six wins, McCaffrey has 445 yards rushing on 93 attempts, a 4.78 average. Throw out the extreme outlier of the Bengals game and he averaged 4.01 yards per carry.
McCaffrey has his ups and downs as well
In their four losses, he had 187 yards on 43 carries, a 4.35 average. Exclude the outlier of the Redskins game, and his average jumps to 4.77 yards. There simply isn’t much of a correlation between McCaffrey’s effort and team success. 14 catches for 102 yards against the Atlanta Falcons resulted in a loss. 138 total yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers resulted in a loss, as the Panthers were blown out. In four of Carolina’s six wins, he’s been held under 100 total yards. As McCaffrey goes, the Panthers go…wherever.
Can the Seahawks contain Christian McCaffrey? Of course they can; they’re the only team to hold Aaron Jones to less than five yards per carry, and it was 3.64 yards at that. Jones did have 63 yards through the air, though. Seattle held Kerryon Johnson to his lowest rushing total by far, just 22 yards. Like Jones, Johnson had his best game as a receiver though with 69 yards. In both cases, the Hawks prevailed.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see McCaffrey have a similar game. That’s sort of his thing, after all. He has four games this year with more yards through the air than on the ground. Melvin Gordon is the only other back in the group that has more than one game with more receiving yards than rushing. I can easily see the Seahawks hold McCaffrey to less than 50 yards rushing, but give up 70 plus through the air. And as they did against Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson, I see Seattle coming out on top.