Please stop saying the Seahawks have a 99% playoff chance
All the Seahawks had to do Sunday was beat the 49ers, and they were in the playoffs. They couldn’t get it done. It only gets harder over the next two weeks.
If the Seahawks had defeated the 49ers (and the officials) Sunday in San Francisco, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Unfortunately we are. As you may have guessed from some earlier pieces, I’m a stat-head through and through. But I’m really tired of seeing all of these articles trumpeting this “99 percent playoff chance” for Seattle. It never was true, and it’s far less true now.
Yes, I get how the percentages are created. The odds of Team A beating Team B are factored in with Team C beating Team D, ad infinitum, practically. The Seahawks were favored to beat the 49ers, absolutely. But regardless of the odds, you still have to win the game on the field. I thought the first Niners game would be a trap. It turns out this one was.
Seattle still nearly pulled off the win, despite being penalized for 3,148 yards. Sorry, I’m off by 3,000, but it might as well have been that high. It’s hard to win when the refs are calling things that aren’t even there. This loss isn’t strictly on the officials, but they certainly affected the outocome.
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On a side note, it truly seems officiating is the worst ever this season. I watched part of the Colts destruction of the Cowboys, and in the span of just nine plays, the refs missed two clear facemask penalties, an intentional grounding call, and one other that I really should have written down. Probably pass interference, because it wasn’t a tick-tacky judgment call. The officials are blowing it.
On the bright side, at least the Seahawks weren’t shut out, like the Cowboys were. But a loss is a loss, and they face the Kansas City Chiefs next. The Seattle pass defense has been burned far too often this season. What do you think Pat 45 touchdowns Mahomes will do? Yes, I’d like to think the Hawks will get pressure on him, stay close, and take advantage of the Chiefs soft defense. But there’s a reason they’ve won 11 games. I think it’s fair to say that Seattle has much less than a 99 percent chance to beat Kansas City.
So then we’re on to face the Cardinals in week 17. As I wrote earlier, the Cardinals are a tough out for the Seahawks. In that same piece, I said that a win over the 49ers would be great, but it wasn’t critical. I’ve changed my mind – the beauty of hindsight. The Hawks can certainly beat the Chiefs, but it isn’t likely. They’ll be favored over Arizona, but that hasn’t stopped the Cardinals from spoiling the Seahawks party in the past.
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No one in their right mind would say Seattle has a 99 percent chance to beat Arizona. So stop with this drivel about the Seahawks being a lock. You can supply your statistical proofs all you want, but in the end, you have to score more than the other team. Seattle needs to play their best game of the year next week against the Chiefs, because you never want to play THE must-win game in week 17. Get a win, and get some rest. Because there’s a 99 percent chance the Seahawks have a lot of players who could use week 17 off.