Seahawks must key on Elliott, not Prescott, to beat the Cowboys

The Seahawks begin their playoff run in Dallas Saturday night. Most people say Zeke Elliott is the key to victory. Surprise! They’re right.

The Seahawks begin what we hope is a long trip through the playoffs with a tough test against the Cowboys. I mean, if it wasn’t a tough test it wouldn’t be the playoffs, now would it? You’ve no doubt seen the vast majority of comments claim that Seattle must stop Ezekiel Elliott to have any chance to win this game. Or if not stop him, at least slow him down.

I was originally going to say they’re all wrong. I was going to show that controlling Elliott isn’t the key to beating Dallas, it’s reigning in Dak Prescott. Happily, I actually did a bit of research before I showed my stupidity again. It’s definitely a case of as Zeke goes, so go the Cowboys. The Seahawks win over Dallas in their first meeting is what threw me off at first.

Seattle Seahawks

In that game, Elliott ran wild. He had 127 yards on just 16 carries for an average just under 8 yards per run. That missed being his highest average by a mere one-hundredth of a yard. Meanwhile, the Seattle defense gave Prescott nightmares. The Hawks sacked him five times, picked him off twice, and held him to his lowest passer rating of the year, 54.5.

You’ll forgive me if I figured it didn’t matter if Elliott got his yards. Control the quarterback and you control the game. That’s what worked for the Seahawks back in week 3, after all. However, as the season played out, in most of the Cowboys losses Elliott was held in check.

The Seahawks have the only win over the Boys this year that saw Zeke get over 100 yards rushing. In their other five losses, Elliott averaged just under 61 yards rushing. In their nine wins with him in the lineup (he sat out the week 17 win over the Giants), Zeke averaged 111 yards per carry. That’s nearly twice the yards he had in their six losses.

Prescott is less of a headache for the Seahawks

As for Prescott, he’s all over the map. Seattle made him look terrible in the win that got the Seahawks on track. In six losses Prescott has an average passer rating of 77.1. In their 10 wins, his passer rating shot up to 108.0. Please note these are estimates, as I didn’t add up all his stats and perform the arcane rituals of the NFL to determine his exact passer ratings. I’d say it’s close enough for government work, but if I was working for the Feds, I’d be furloughed.

Anyway, the averages certainly make it appear that as Dak goes, so go the Cowboys. This is another helpful illustration that stats can say anything you want them to if you don’t look too closely. Mixed into those six losses are two very good games for Prescott. He had passer ratings of 96.5 and 99.3 against Washington and Tennessee in weeks 7 and 9. So why didn’t Dallas win?

Those two games happened to be the two worst of Elliott’s season. He ran for just 33 yards in Washington. He followed that with his second-worst total of 2018, a mere 61 yards in Nashville. Prescott has two good games, Elliott has two lousy games, and the Cowboys get two losses.

What happened when the roles were reversed? Prescott’s worst effort in a win came against the Falcons. He had 208 yards passing, no touchdown passes and a passer rating of 86.5. Not bad enough to lose, really, but hardly a great game, either. The win came from Elliott. He went off for 122 yards on the ground and added another 79 yards receiving.

There are only two games you could really say that Prescott won. The first was the second Eagles game which saw Dak throw for 455 yards and three scores. The second was the last game of the season when Elliott was rested versus the Giants. Prescott had his best game of the year, as he threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns.

Despite his success without Zeke in the lineup in that game, I don’t think Prescott wants to face the Seahawks without Elliott lining up behind him. I don’t think the Seahawks would complain too much if Dallas trotted out Rod Smith for this game, but that’s not happening. All the stats show controlling Elliott is the key. Then again, Seattle went against the grain in week three, and could certainly do it again. As long as it’s a win for the Hawks, I don’t what Zeke does.