The Seahawks starter at running back is certainly set, but who will back up Chris Carson? Here’s some early guesswork at the names and their roles.
The Seahawks found their answer to what had become their perennial question: who’s carrying the load at running back? We know Chris Carson is the lead back coming into 2019, and Rashaad Penny will definitely be in the mix as well. But with a lot of questions surrounding free agency, who will round out the Seahawks backfield?
Chris Carson proved he was up to the task of replacing the great Marshawn Lynch. I’m not saying he’s as good as Lynch. It’s a little early to go that far, as we just have one (almost) full season plus a four-game rookie campaign for comparison. But Carson shows every sign of being one of the league’s best running backs for the foreseeable future.
Seattle Seahawks
Carson wrapped up 2018 with three straight hundred-yard games to give him six on the season. He was fourth in the league in yards per game and seventh in yards per carry among backs with at least 200 carries. He found the end zone nine times, an achievement Russell Wilson certainly appreciated. Because Wilson was practically the only guy to run the ball into the end zone in 2017.
Not quite the only guy, but we’ll get to that player later. As for Lynch, in his first full season with Seattle, he had six hundred-yard games and averaged 4.22 yards per carry. That’s far below Carson’s 4.66 average. Lynch went on to greater seasons, but I’m betting Carson will do the same. He certainly shares a love for contact and general mayhem with Beast Mode. With Carson as the likely starter, who backs him up?
Seahawks got good production from Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis
So the starting role is likely settled, or at least in good hands. If someone outplays him in camp or the preseason, so be it. Pete Carroll is all about competition at all times. By far the most likely candidate to supplant Carson, for now, is Rashaad Penny. Penny came to the team as a first-round pick but missed much of the preseason with a broken finger.
Once he got his chance Penny performed pretty well. Of course, “pretty well” is open to interpretation. I’d say a 4.93-yard average and two touchdowns translates to pretty well. However, for a first-round pick that might not be enough. One thing to watch: of his 85 carries, just two were on third or fourth down. That tells me Seattle didn’t exactly have full confidence in him.
Carson wasn’t the third-down specialist either, as 30 of his 247 carries came on third or fourth. More than anyone, the Seahawks depended on Mike Davis to convert on third down. Davis was the true back-up to Carson. He had five games with ten or more carries compared to Penny’s two. He also got the starting nod in the two games Carson missed.
Like Penny, Davis racked up a 100-yard game of his own. He averaged 4.59 yards per carry and was an excellent target out of the backfield. Davis had 34 catches for 214 yards and a score. Added to his four touchdowns on the ground, and Davis was a great counterpart for Carson. He really shone on third down, though. Of his 112 carries, 17 were on third or fourth down. That may not sound like much, but it’s 15 percent of his attempts. That’s more than Carson’s 12 percent, and miles beyond Penny’s two percent.
Add in that 13 of Davis’ 42 catches were on third or fourth, and it’s clear he was often the man Seattle used to pick up the first down. Carson had 20 catches, and only one was on third down, while none of Penny’s nine catches were on third or fourth. Unfortunately, Davis is a free agent, and the early buzz is he’s likely to command a bigger contract than the Seahawks would be willing to pay. When you compare his career earnings with his performance – thanks spotrac.com! – you can see Seattle got great value from Davis. He’s certainly going to make more than $1.3 million.
Seahawks have solid players to step in for Davis
So if Davis leaves, who can the Seahawks use instead? He’s largely been forgotten as he missed the first nine games of the season, but J.D. McKissic is still around. Well, technically he isn’t as he’s a free agent too. But unlike Davis, he’s a restricted free agent. That means that if another team offers McKissic a contract, Seattle can match the offer and keep him on the team. Considering he only touched the ball four times in 2018, he isn’t likely to get any big offers.
So why should the Seahawks consider keeping him at all? Refer to the 2017 season, also known as “The Year Without a Running Back”. The year in which Russell Wilson led the team in carries and rushing yards. McKissic only had 47 carries, but no running back had more than 69 carries that year. McKissic’s true value came on – you guessed it – third down. Only three of his runs came on that down, but 15 of his 46 catches were on third or fourth down. Mike Davis was the only other back who had more than 10 catches. So McKissic could certainly help carry the load in crunch time. Remember, he was the only Seahawk to score a rushing touchdown other than Wilson in 2017.
There’s one more name to throw into the mix. That would be Bo Scarbrough. At this stage of his career, all Bo knows is the practice squad. Remember, Mike Davis spent most of 2017 on the practice squad and likely would never have seen the field if it wasn’t for the train wreck the backfield had become. Scarbrough was signed on December 18th to give the Hawks a little more depth at the position and replaced guard Jordan Simmons on the active roster. He’s signed through 2020.
What does he bring to the Seahawks? At 6’1″ and 235 pounds he’s got about ten pounds on Carson. Of course, he has no stats as a practice squad guy, but he looked pretty good in college. In three seasons at Alabama, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry and scored 20 touchdowns. One more nice thing, he made 17 catches in his final season. For a little more on him, check out the always excellent Bob Condotta’s article from the Seattle Times. Scarbrough is young, as he came out as a junior in the 2018 draft when the Cowboys picked him up in the seventh round. Seems the Hawks have done okay with that draft spot before.
I haven’t forgotten about C. J. Prosise, but I’d be dumbfounded if Seattle doesn’t cut him. He’s a fine player when healthy, but he’s almost never healthy. In three seasons he’s appeared in just 16 games and made only two starts. Yes, he was spectacular in that game against New England, but that was three years ago. Those 153 yards account for 30 percent of his career output. I wish him all the best, but it’s time to let him try to revive his career on another team.
Seattle has Carson under contract through 2021 and Penny until 2023. They’re likely to re-sign McKissic, as he won’t be too expensive. Between him and Scarbrough, I’d say the Seahawks have a nice roster to fill out the backfield behind Carson and Penny. As much as I’d love to see Davis stay, he’s probably going to cash in with a nice payday. He deserves it, too. You can always make improvements, but I think the Hawks already have the backfield they need.