The Seahawks still have big personnel decisions ahead of them. Can they re-sign both Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed? If not, who should they keep?
The Seahawks already made headlines when they gave the biggest contract in league history to Russell Wilson. Waiting in the wings are two more players who could earn record contracts for their position, linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive tackle Jarran Reed. Can the Hawks sign both to new contracts? If not, which player should they keep in the fold?
I believe there are actually two parts to the question of the Seahawks extending both Wagner and Reed. First, let me clarify for those few who may be unsure of their status. Both players are signed through the 2019 season, as was Wilson. Wagner is acting as his own agent and has made it clear that he expects to be the highest-paid linebacker in the league. Considering just how good he is, he should get the best paycheck. Consider that the highest-paid linebacker right now is the Jets C. J. Mosely. If I was Wagner, I’d want to get paid quite a bit more, too.
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There really isn’t any doubt that Wagner deserves the best paycheck of any linebacker. The case for Jarran Reed isn’t quite as strong. Based on last season, Reed was certainly one of the best defensive tackles in the league. 10.5 sacks from the interior are pretty darn good, after all. But was he truly one of the league’s very best tackles?
How Jarran Reed stacks up against other top tackles
Reed added plenty of quarterback hits and hurries to those double-digit tackles. In fact, he was one of only four interior defenders to notch double digits in all three categories. That’s impressive, but the luster dulls a bit when you see that he was far behind the top players at his position. Here are the stats of Reed and the three linemen who finished ahead of him:
Player Team Sacks QB HIts Hurries
Jarran Reed Seahawks 10.5 13 26
Chris Jones Chiefs 16 14 44
Fletcher Cox Eagles 11 24 60
Aaron Donald Rams 21 20 65
That’s 49.5 pressures for Reed, 74 for Jones, 95 for Cox, and 106 for Donald. Reed had an excellent year, but Fletcher Cox and Aaron Donald got to the quarterback twice as often. Let’s not forget that Cox and Donald have been doing this for years. Reed only had 34 total quarterback pressures in 2016 and 2017 combined. Even the great Cortez Kennedy only topped 10 sacks once in his Hall of Fame career, so it isn’t an easy level of performance.
Reed wasn’t the top run-stopper in the league, either. According to playerprofiler.com, Reed was credited with just one stuffed run. That seems rather incredible, but profootballfocus.com also places Reed far down its rankings versus the run; 80th, in fact. Lest you think PFF hates the Seahawks, they ranked Poona Ford as the 10th-best run defender in the league.
Bobby Wagner will turn 29 this summer, while Jarran Reed won’t be 27 until December. Age certainly matters in the NFL. Ask Earl Thomas or Richard Sherman how much the Seahawks trust 30-year-old players. But Reed is just two years younger than Fletcher Cox, and the Eagles star has been destroying opponents for the past five years. Aaron Donald has been dominating the league for those same five years and is just 28 years old.
You can’t say it isn’t fair to compare Reed to the best players at his position when he wants to be paid like them. If he can at least repeat his performance, if not improve on it in 2019, then sure, pay the man. One year doesn’t establish a consistent level of performance. I imagine the Seahawks want to see more than one good year before extending Reed for another four or five.
Finally, Wagner is already making some serious dollars. Counting bonuses, Wagner’s cap hit for 2019 is just over $14 million, according to spotrac.com. Making him the top-paid linebacker in the league would cost Seattle in the range of an additional $5 million per year (Mosley’s contract averages $17 million per year). That’s certainly a figure the Seahawks can handle.
Reed’s contract is a very different story. His cap hit for 2019 is $1.4 million. That’s one-point-four, not fourteen. Getting Reed into the realm of the top five contracts for defensive tackles will take a lot of money. The average cap hit of the top five contracts at his position is $15.6 million. Yes, that would be a $14 million dollar raise. You could expect at least $30 million to be guaranteed, based on deals signed by Kawann Short and Geno Atkins last year. If you were wondering, Aaron Donald got a bit less than $87 million guaranteed.
So who do you want to pay? Based on last year alone, I’m going with Bobby Wagner. He was the best in the league at his position, and the additional hit to the Seahawks finances is affordable. Releasing Barkevious Mingo would pay for it Wagner’s extension. I know it sounds like I hate the guy; I don’t. But I’m pretty sure Seattle can find someone to post 48 tackles and a sack for a lot less than $5 million.
Based on their careers, there’s absolutely no contest between Wagner and Reed. That should be evident to anyone who’s watched the Seahawks for more than one year. Just in case you’re new to the ranks of the 12s, here’s one measure of their value. Wagner has 98 points of approximate value, according to the formula of pro-football-reference.com. Reed has 19 points.
As of now, Seattle has $28 million in cap space for the top 51 roster spots, again according to spotrac.com. Counting all roster spots, the team has a bit over $8 million in cap space. The Hawks can probably afford to extend Reed as well as Wagner. There’s no need to see if Wagner can maintain his level of performance. I have no doubt he was tackling stuffed animals in his crib at six months.
Yes, the NFL pays players based on what they will do, not what they’ve done. Which is why Reed needs to show he can at least maintain last year’s jump, if not take another leap forward. If he gets off to a good start in 2019, sure, pay him. Younger or not, he’s nowhere near the proven talent of Wagner. I pay Bobby Wagner now. He’s given Seattle every reason to believe he’ll be the best in the league for the foreseeable future.