The Seahawks led the NFL in rushing last season. I expect they’ll be even better in 2019, as Carson, Penny, and friends pile up the yards.
In 2018, the Seahawks ran the kind of offense that Pete Carroll loves – the key word being “ran”. Seattle easily led the league in rushing, jumping all the way up from 23rd in 2017. They improved by a mere 931 yards and 11 touchdowns. They won’t add 900 yards to last years total, but I do see the Hawks picking up even more yards on the ground, and getting into the endzone even more this year. This is how I see the workload panning out this year.
I see Chris Carson as the workhorse again, the same as everyone else on the planet. Having him on the field for 10 more games is one of the biggest reasons for the huge improvement in Seattle’s running game last season. The absence of Eddie Lacy certainly helped, too. I’m happy to note that 12thmanrising was on team Carson early.
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While I’m bragging about our amazing gridiron acumen, let me throw in that I expected a very different running back crew in 2017. I did manage to mention Chris Carson as an afterthought. So cheers to me. I have much more confidence in my prediction for 2019. Happily, it’s based on more than sheer optimism. Optimism goes a long way, but it only goes so far. Pete Carroll is much more than a cheerleader, after all.
Carson is obvious, as I mentioned before. After seeing light duty in the first two games – and that’s all I’ll say about it, for once – he averaged 19.5 carries the rest of the way last year. That sounds about right for 2019 as well, so give him, oh, 260 carries. That would give Carson about 1,200 yards. For the math-compulsives out there, you’re right, that’s about 40 carries short of a full season at last year’s rate. I’m assuming Carson will miss two or three games. With his style, he’s going to get dinged. Just not for half the season.
Seahawks can count on Penny
When Carson is out, the Seahawks won’t miss a beat when they call on Rashaad Penny. That’s because Penny will see a lot of time on the field all season long anyway. His numbers weren’t overwhelming last year, but he did average 4.9 yards per carry on his way to 419 yards and two scores.
I expect Penny will be much better this season and will pick up the lion’s share of carries that went to Mike Davis in 2018. Penny had 85 carries, Davis 112…so let’s give him 160 carries this year. I see no reason for his average to drop; in fact, I think it will improve a bit. Let’s give 800 yards to Penny.
Adding Carson’s 1,200 to Penny’s 800 is 560 yards shy of last season’s output. That would be a problem if the Seahawks didn’t have anyone else to turn to. Happily, they have plenty of candidates to step up. I think rookie Travis Homer will be the third option in Seattle’s backfield. Homer will absorb the rest of the third-down carries that Davis had last year, plus a bit more. Give him 50 carries. I expect he’ll average about 4.5 yards per touch, so give Homer 225 yards.
Don’t forget the Seahawks not-so-secret weapon
We’re up to 470 carries and 2,225 yards. That’s just 23 more carries than last year’s triumvirate, so it seems pretty reasonable. It’s also 141 yards ahead of last year’s pace. So how do the Seahawks get more yards than last year? That’s a rhetorical question for 12s. You know it’s coming from DangeRuss3. Russell Wilson ran the ball 67 times for 376 yards in 2018. Both were the lowest numbers of his career. I think this will be the new normal for Wilson, so I’ll pencil him in for 60 carries and 340 yards. That’s right at his career average of 5.66 yards per carry.
Now we’re at 530 carries for 2,565 yards, which puts Seattle just five yards ahead of last year. But we haven’t accounted for the odds and ends, like Tyler Lockett’s 13 carries last year. Expect to see more of J.D. McKissic, too. In fact, he could split time with Homer as a third-down specialist. I agree with site co-expert Lee Vowell that McKissic will make the squad over the all-too-often injured C.J. Prosise. And don’t forget the running prowess of Michael Dickson.
Note, I haven’t even mentioned what the running backs will contribute to the passing game. That’s another subject for another time. For now, I’ll just say that Carson and Penny combined for 29 catches on 36 targets. That’s more than solid. I’ll add that all of the estimates I’ve made are on the conservative side. As I expect the Hawks to have their best offensive season ever, these numbers could easily be 10 percent higher. Regardless, Carson and Penny will power the league’s best running game again.