For the Seahawks, the preseason games actually do matter
It’s conventional wisdom that preseason won-loss records don’t matter. As in so many things, the Seahawks don’t do things in the conventional manner.
Everyone knows that preseason games are simply glorified scrimmages. Scrimmages you get to pay at least $65 to see, that is. At least when it comes to the Seahawks, there’s more at stake than the usual position battles. Turns out the preseason record does matter, at least in Seattle.
Overall the Seahawks preseason record is worse than their regular season record under Pete Carroll. In the cheap games, Seattle is 20-14, a won/loss percentage of .588. In the games that count, Pete’s squad has gone 89-54-1, a won/loss percentage of .622. In their two losing preseasons, the Hawks went 17-15 in the regular season and lost in the wildcard round both years. In the three years Seattle went 2-2 in the preseason, they wound up 29-19.
The Seahawks have only had one preseason with a 3-1 record. That was the year of the miserable tie, 10-5-1. In their three perfect preseasons, the Hawks went 33-15. Obviously, that’s the best overall record, and it includes the year the Seahawks dominated the Broncos in their Super Bowl win. It also includes only the second time Seattle missed the postseason under Carroll.
To recap, when the Hawks have a losing preseason, their regular season winning percentage is .531. When they come out of the preseason with an even record, their real record jumps to .604. In their sole 3-1 preseason their won-loss percentage jumped again to .656. When they skate through the preseason undefeated, Seattle’s regular season record climbs to .688.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks preseason is a good barometer for the real deal
Clearly, the more often the Hawks win in the preseason, the more often they win the games that count. On the face of it, that makes sense. If you have better personnel running better plays, you’re going to win more often. In the preseason, the personnel is a reflection of your team’s depth. For the most part, Seattle has enjoyed a deep roster. If you disagree, name me another team that could lose three-fourths of a future Hall of Fame secondary and still make the playoffs the next year.
One of the most interesting aspects is the Seahawks performance in game three of the preseason. That game is generally considered the dress rehearsal for the league. The first two games are a free-for-all to see who can really play. The fourth game gives you a chance to rest your starters and finalize the backups. That third game is about setting the tone for the regular season.
Carroll’s Seahawks are 6-3 in those third games, a winning percentage of .667. The overall regular season record of the three teams Seattle lost to would be 22-25-1. Just one of those three teams made the postseason. The six teams Seattle beat had an overall record of 42-53-1. Basically, the Hawks beat a bunch of bad teams. Except the last two wins were over Dallas (2016) and Kansas City (2017), who both made the playoffs and had a combined record of 23-9.
Here are the gory details, season by season:
"Year Pre Reg Game 3 score, opponent, opponent Reg Season record2010 1-3 7-9 L 13-24 Minn (6-10)2011 2-2 7-9 L 20-23 Den (8-8) *won Wild Card game2012 4-0 11-5 W 44-14 KC (2-14)2013 4-0 13-3 W 17-10 GB (8-7-1) *lost Wild Card game2014 2-2 12-4 W 34-6 Chi (5-11)2015 2-2 10-6 W 16-15 SD (4-12)2016 3-1 10-5-1 W 27-17 Dal (13-3) *lost Divisional game2017 4-0 9-7 W 26-13 KC (10-6) *lost Wild Card game2018 0-4 10-6 L 21-20 Min (8-7-1)"
Until the Seahawks turn everything on its head
So up until the last two years, the Seahawks record makes perfect sense. They lost their dress rehearsals the first two seasons and had losing records in the regular season. I’ve heard something about a Beastquake, but they still had a losing record. Seattle won the next five dress rehearsals and made the playoffs every year.
It’s the last two years where things got crazy. As I mentioned earlier, the Hawks have only swept the preseason three times. The last time they did it was 2017 when they missed the playoffs. I’d say that missed opportunity was largely due to a bad offensive line and a lousy running game. The bad rushing attack was largely due to the loss of Chris Carson. In 2018, Seattle lost every preseason game, largely because they had position battles everywhere and new coordinators on offense and defense. Yet all that work in the preseason worked, as the Seahawks made it back to the playoffs.
Next. Keys to victory for the Seahawks in 2019. dark
For 2019, I expect the Hawks to return to form. While Seattle certainly has a lot of position battles, it’s due to an infusion of talent, not a lack of talent due to injuries. The coaching staff is tweaking their systems, not installing new concepts. And the dress rehearsal can be just that, not a last-chance look at a longshot quarterback. I, for one, hope they have a solid preseason.