Predicting each Seahawks rookie’s production in 2019

The Seahawks have some very promising rookies this season. But how will each one perform? Here are some wild guesses.

The Seahawks had their rookies report earlier than ever under Pete Carroll. For the first time, Seattle had their new players report before the veterans. This means what 12s all know: A lot of 2019 will be decided by how well the newly drafted players play.

Seattle had certain needs going into this year’s NFL draft. They absolutely needed pass rushing help after trading Frank Clark to the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle also assumed they need a receiver or five as all signs pointed to Doug Baldwin not playing again. In fact, Baldwin was released by Seattle and appears likely to never play again after having multiple offseason surgeries.

Seattle also needed either a starter or two in the secondary or players who would be close to starting. The biggest need was at safety and the Seahawks took a player in the second round. More on him in a minute, of course.

Seattle also selected players, as they always do under general manager John Schneider, that they think fit the team’s ideology and will simply help them win games. Sure, Seattle chooses one of the better players on the board but they also choose the best player that they think will be the right fit for them.

Let me preface my most likely incorrect predictions by saying I do not think a rookie season is indicative of how a player’s career will go, only their rookie production. So how will each rookie do this season? No one knows for sure. But here are my best guesses on which new players will really help Seattle in 2019.

L.J. Collier, defensive end

After trading Frank Clark, the Seahawks needed to find help replacing him. Clark blossomed in 2018 after being in the shadow of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril his first couple of seasons. Last year, Clark had 13 sacks. This was made even more impressive in the fact he didn’t have much help other than Jarran Reed. And Reed played on the interior of the defensive line, not at edge rusher.

Enter L.J. Collier. Collier is a lot more like Bennett than Clark and this is not a bad thing. Seattle had a lot of trouble stopping the run in 2018. Clark did many things extremely well but helping shut down the opposing team’s run game was not one of them. Clark was drafted to get sacks and not tackle running backs.

Collier can do both. The hope is that is two or three seasons Collier gets 10 or sacks a season. But we aren’t there yet, 12s. It is very unlikely that any rookie defensive end gets 10 sacks. Bradley Chubb did get 12 sacks last year, but he was also playing with Von Miller. Teams focused on Miller and not Chubb and rightfully so. Collier does not have a Miller-type player beside him, however.

Prediction for Collier in 2019: 50 tackles, 5 sacks and 8 tackles for loss

Marquise Blair, safety

I think Marquise Blair is going to be a good player for the Seahawks in his career. Blair probably won’t be the next Kam Chancellor because placing expectations on anyone to replace any great player is asking a lot. It would be nice if by the end of Blair’s career in Seattle, though, if people are asking, “Who will replace Blair?”

Even though Blair was a second round pick and Chancellor was a fifth round choice, it is important to remember that in Chancellor’s rookie season he didn’t do much. He had 16 tackles and no starts. Blair could start right away but that would be a lot of pressure in Seattle’s system.

Prediction for Blair in 2019: 8 starts, 30 tackles, two quarterback hits and one interception

D.K. Metcalf, wide receiver

As we all know, D.K. Metcalf has a large amount of physical ability. But Metcalf also has to learn to be an NFL receiver. Even the most highly skilled and polished receivers coming out of college tend to struggle in the first year or so. While I was completely wrong about where Metcalf would go in the draft, there was a reason teams passed on him until the end of the second round. He needs to learn to run routes fluidly.

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Metcalf’s rookie year could either be one where he becomes a monster right away or one where he simply learns his way. Either way is fine because I think Metcalf will be a good player for Seattle in years two and three, but maybe he has too much foisted upon him in 2019.

Prediction for Metcalf in 2019: 38 catches, 527 yards, 4 touchdowns (and people will begin to doubt his capability which will be completely incorrect)

Cody Barton, linebacker

Cody Barton is a nearly perfect Pete Carroll player as far as technique. Carroll loves tacklers and especially those who don’t miss. If someone is coming at you, you take them down and don’t let them get extra yards. Missed tackles cost the Seahawks in 2019 and Carroll will want to fix that.

In OTAs, Barton was a solid performer. It also probably helps that he played with Blair at Utah and the players can feed off each other. Barton is smart and knows his limitations. Carroll also says that Utah’s scheme helps those players prepare for Seattle’s in that the philosophies are so similar.

Barton plays linebacker, though, so he may not see the field a lot in 2019 as Seattle already has Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and Mychal Kendricks. But Barton will be a big help on special teams.

Prediction for Barton in 2019: Plays all 16 games, 8 tackles

Gary Jennings, wide receiver

Gary Jennings could have a better rookie season than Metcalf. The Seahawks need a slot receiver and Jennings could fill that role immediately. It could be that Jennings’ numbers are better than Metcalf’s simply because he ends up with more targets.

But first, Jennings need to get on the field. Metcalf might be given a better chance of making an impact than Jennings at first. Seattle already has Tyler Lockett, of course, and Lockett could be used at the slot more in 2019. Still, I think Jennings finds his way and increasingly impresses as the season wears on.

Prediction for Jennings in 2019: 40 catches, 620 yards, 5 touchdowns

Phil Haynes, guard

Phil Haynes is going to be a starter for the Seahawks for many years. 2019 will not be one of them. Seattle re-signed D.J. Fluker and signed Mike Iupati to be the starting guards this season. There isn’t anything wrong with that. Ideally, offensive guards need a year to physically mature before becoming solid pros.

But Haynes is a big man who can run-block extremely well. He will find a home in Seattle and be a start there for five years. Unless there is an injury in 2019, though, he won’t do a whole lot.

Prediction for Haynes in 2019: Six games, one start

Ugo Amadi, safety

This is a player I think will surprise. Ugo Amadi is a smallish safety who plays safety and can be good on special teams. But I think where he really finds his niche is at slot corner. Amadi is just five-foot-nine-inches and doesn’t weight a ton. But this is nearly a perfect size for slot corner.

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Seattle lost Justin Coleman in free agency this offseason and Coleman was very good over the last two seasons for the Seahawks. Akeem King will probably get the first crack to replace Coleman, but I think as the season grinds on, Amadi gets more and more reps in the slot. By the end of the year, he will be the starter.

Prediction for Amadi in 2019: 14 games, seven starts, one interception, six passes defended

Ben Burr-Kirven, linebacker

Ben Burr-Kirven is definitely not going to see the field much as a linebacker. But that is OK. The Washington product is still going to help the team. Because Burr-Kirven wants to punish you on the football field if you are returning kicks. Or if you are doing anything else for that matter.

Burr-Kirven had 176 tackles his last year in college. Look at that number again. 176. He knows how to tackle. Therefore, Burr-Kirven will be a huge boost on special teams in 2019. And 2020. Also, in 2021. He will also be a fan favorite.

Prediction for Burr-Kirven in 2019: All special teams, all the time and very good at it

Travis Homer, running back

Travis Homer averaged 5.9 yards a carry over his last two seasons at the University of Miami. He isn’t big and weighs just 200 pounds, but he can pass-block well and is a tough inside runner. Homer shouldn’t be expected to be the number one or two back with the Seahawks, but with Mike Davis leaving in free agency, Seattle is looking for a number three back.

Homer could be that guy. And because there isn’t a lot of expectations in his rookie season, if he gets to 200 yards rushing that would be a huge success.

Prediction for Homer in 2019: 26 carries, 101 yards

Demarcus Christmas, defensive tackle

Christmas is a big man at over 300 pounds. The problem with him is he doesn’t get to the opposing quarterback much. He had just 3.5 sacks in his college career. Christmas always seemed to be a bit of an underperformer given his size and quickness.

I don’t think Christmas makes the active roster this year but does get put on the Seattle practice squad. He might be a solid pro one day and help Seattle stop the run, but Christmas needs to get better and maximize his potential.

Prediction for Christmas in 2019: Practice squad

John Ursua, wide receiver

Ursua was the third and final receiver chosen by the Seahawks in this year’s draft. The team must have assumed Doug Baldwin would not be coming back. This is why Ursua was chosen. He has great hands, similar to Baldwin, and can play the slot.

Ursua isn’t big or fast, though, so if he makes the team it will only be to play in the slot. And with Jennings and Lockett, there may not be room for Ursua.

Prediction for Ursua in 2019: 3 games, 1 catch, 12 yards