The Seahawks would be wise to extend Jadeveon Clowney’s contract into the future. Here’s what that the Hawks could do to lock him up.
Clowney coming out of college was projected to be a once in a lifetime type of player. He is big, fast, explosive and has a very high football IQ. There wasn’t anything he couldn’t do in college. The Texans liked him enough to take him as the 1st overall pick in the 2014 draft. The Seahawks were thrilled to take him off their hands.
His career started off slow between the learning curve of playing in the NFL and battling injuries. However, as the years progressed, so did Clowney. Each year he has been better than the last both statistically and with his understanding of the game overall.
Between 2016 and 2018 he was top 10 in tackles for a loss at 18 per season. He also averaged eight sacks, 53 tackles, 20 QB hits, and one forced fumble. He earned Pro Bowls nods in all three seasons. It’s clear he is just scratching the surface on his potential and what made him so special in college.
Evaluating Clowney’s current Seahawks contract
Let’s compare his numbers against three defensive ends who earned sizeable contracts this past off-season; Demarcus Lawrence, Dee Ford, and Frank Clark.
Average per season between 2016-2018
Clowney Lawrence Ford Clark
TFL 18 11 10 10
Sacks 8 8 8 11
Tkls 53 44 35 40
QB ht 20 18 18 22
FF 1 2 3 2
Seattle Seahawks
What I gather from the numbers above, Clowney is right on par with all these players. If we were to rank out each stat (TFL, Sacks, Tackles, QB hits, Forced Fumbles), Clowney would average out as the second-best player out of the group behind Frank Clark.
What the numbers don’t tell about the group would be that Frank Clark had one of the highest missed tackle percentages of the group last year (21.2% of tackles were missed). He was also very poor against the run. Dee Ford has been very inconsistent in his production and 7 of the 9 total fumbles and over half his QB hits came from one season. Demarcus Lawrence has been known to take plays or even drives off showing an underlying issue of “how bad does he actually want it” and if we give him the contract will he stop producing?
Clowney was the only one of the four names above who did not receive a contract extension last off season.
Player Terms Signing Bonus Guarantee Avg Salary
Clark 5yr, $104 Million $19 Million $62.3 Million $20.8 Million
Ford 5yr, $85.5 Million $8 Million $33.4 Million $17.1 Million
Lawrence 5yr, $105 Million $25 Million $65 Million $21 Million
In 2018 Clowney was the 2nd highest rated edge player in the NFL, per PFF. After having continuous growth year to year why was he traded away? Its likely due to the spike in contractual values for defensive ends. Before Lawrence’s extension in the offseason, Clowney’s market value per Spotrac was $16.6 million a season. After Lawrence’s extension, Clowney’s valuation shot up to $20 million a season. Houston decided they didn’t want to have two of the top 10 highest paid defensive ends between J.J. Watt and Clowney.
Just two weeks before the 2019 season started, Clowney was traded to the Seahawks for a 2020 3rd round pick, Jacob Martin and Barkevious Mingo, ending his promising tenure with the Texans.
Putting Clowney’s production with the Seahawks into context
From a casual fan it would be safe to say that Clowney hasn’t been quite the game changer we had hoped for. So far this year he has 20 tackles, two forced fumbles, one interception, two sacks, five tackles for a loss and seven QB hits. These figures would put him well below his averages. Below is a comparison between his 2016-2018 averages and his projected ending numbers based on his first eight games played (**).
Stat Avg 2016-2018 Full year 2019 projection **
TFL 18 10
Sack 8 4
Tackles 53 40
QB hits 20 14
Forced Fumbles 1 4
Clowney is well south of his averages in every category outside of forced fumbles. To some this is quite concerning. What I see is that he is going through a learning curve, similar to his first couple years in the NFL. Clowney did not participate in any of the off-season activities as he was holding out for a trade or extension from the Texans after being franchise tagged. He also got traded to an entirely different defensive scheme in the 4-3 (Texans play the 3-4 where Clowney was an OLB) with little off-season to make the adjustment. It has been a work in progress this year as Clowney is having to learn the system on the fly.
Fortunately for the Seahawks, Clowney has improved every week. Clowney has the 5th best pass rush win rate in the NFL this season overall at 27%. This is a metric used to show how often the defensive line player can break through the offensive line within 2.5 second or less. Clowneys win rate leads Khalil Mack, Demarcus Lawrence, Calais Campbell, Chris Jones and is tied with Aaron Donald. Pretty good company.
Clowney had his best game in week 8 against the Falcons. He ended the game with an absurd 70% pass rush win rate per Next Gen Stats. This means 7 out of every 10 pass rushes he beat his opposing player in less than 2.5 seconds. In this game he produced 1 sack, and 4 QB hits.
Per PFF, Clowney is also the second highest rated Seahawk on the team trailing only Russell Wilson and the 10th highest rated defensive lineman in the NFL. This is all while learning a new system, without having an offseason to prepare, new teammates, and absolutely zero pressure being generated from other players.
To put into context how big of a deal the lack of pressure is from his teammates: this season Clowney is the most double teamed edge rusher in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. With no other player able to create pressure, offenses are focusing all their resources into shutting him down. Its near impossible for Clowney to make much more of a dent than he has without additional help.
What an extension with the Seahawks may look like
Many would argue that if we were going to pay a defensive lineman big money we should have stuck with Frank Clark. While no one can argue this in terms of pass rush ability, one key stat stands out to me, tackles for a loss. Coach Carroll has emphasized for years that stopping the run is one of the biggest priorities of the defense. Clark excelled rushing the passer but was in the bottom half the league in edge containment. Clowney is a better overall player and athlete, a real jack of all trades and is able to both rush the passer and contain the edge.
As I mentioned previously, Clowneys projection per Spotrac last off season had him making an average of $20 million per year post Lawrence’s deal. His current projected extension half way through the year has him at $20.3 million per year and will likely just continue to increase as the year progresses. While his stats aren’t eye popping this year, if he goes through free agency you can guarantee yourself, he will be offered by more than 1 team a contract well north of that $20.3 million figure.
Clowney will likely be pushing for a contract somewhere around Aaron Donald’s extension of 6-year deal worth $135 million ($22.5 million per year).
Seattle meanwhile is likely looking along the Danielle Hunter, Dee Ford extensions in terms of monetary value and length. This would be closer to a 4-year $72 million deal ($18 million per year).
If a deal is to be done it would likely need to be a compromise between player and team. The Seahawks already have two players who reset the market in Russell Wilson, and Bobby Wagner. We also just let go of a similar caliber player in Frank Clark. Clowney has publicly stated how happy he is in Seattle and how Russell Wilson makes all the difference for the team and locker room chemistry.
The Seahawks will need to acknowledge that in todays NFL, teams are more pass happy than ever. In order to succeed we must generate pressure on the QB. Putting significant money into a player who has gotten better year after year and is just now entering his prime is not money wasted and should prove to be a wise investment as time goes on.
My projected deal for Clowney and the Seahawks
Player Terms Signing Bonus Guarantee Avg Salary
Clowney 5yr, $108 Million $23.5 Million $60 Million $21.6 Million
This is good enough to put him in the top 5 for positional pay and in the top 30 in the NFL but won’t be that record-breaking contract that Clowney was reportedly looking for. Concessions will have to go both ways for a deal to be struck.
I would anticipate there be an out in the contract after two years in case of injuries or lack of production to protect the team in this deal. His cap hit for 2020 would likely end around $14 million leaving $58 million in cap space for other extensions and free agency. More than enough to secure key players and keep our best assets home.