Seahawks vs. Eagles: A complete Wild Card betting guide
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Seahawks at Eagles Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Eagles -1.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Kickoff: 4:40 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
The Seahawks have received a staggering amount of public support for their NFL Wild Card matchup against the Eagles: Almost 80% of bets and more than 65% of money has come in on Seattle as of Saturday evening.
Do our experts agree, or should you fade the public? They preview Sunday’s game, featuring analysis of the biggest matchups and their picks.
Seahawks-Eagles Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Seahawks
The Seahawks have more players on their injury report, but their injuries aren’t as significant as the Eagles.
Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (core) should be a full go after he was removed from Friday’s injury report. Linebacker Mychal Kendricks (knee) is out with a knee injury, and they could potentially be down two offensive linemen as Duane Brown (knee/biceps) is out and Mike Iupati (neck) is listed as questionable. Pete Carroll said Iupati will be a game-time call.
Meanwhile, the Eagles could welcome back RB Miles Sanders (ankle), who practiced in full on Friday and is ready to go. However, Nelson Agholor (knee) remains out and Zach Ertz (ribs, back) still hasn’t been cleared for contact. There has been some optimism from the Eagles camp that the tight end will play, but we likely won’t know his status until game time. — Justin Bailey
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Eagles PK
- Projected Total: 45
Biggest Mismatch for the Seahawks
Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf vs. Eagles Cornerbacks
Only four teams surrendered more yardage to wide receivers than the Eagles (2,809) this season, and only two allowed more touchdown receptions to the position than they did (21). Not even one of their starting corners managed to crack the top 60 in Pro Football Focus’ grades with Sidney Jones “leading” the way at 64, followed by slot corner Avonte Maddox at 82 and Jalen Mills at 95.
Despite being hampered down the stretch by injury, Lockett’s overall season has been superb: 82 catches, 1,057 yards and and eight touchdowns with a highly-efficient 74.5% catch rate and 9.6 yards per target.
And Metcalf’s Year 1 went about as good as Seattle could have hoped, with 58 catches for 900 yards and seven touchdowns. His 58.0% catch rate shows that targeting him was a more volatile proposition than Lockett, but it was well worth it, as Metcalf averaged 15.5 yards per reception and 9.5 yards per target. — Chris Raybon
Biggest Mismatch for the Eagles
Eagles Defensive Line vs. Seahawks Offensive Line
The Eagles boast two of the best defensive linemen in Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, both of whom should be able to wreak havoc on a Seahawks offensive line missing its starting center (Justin Britt) and left tackle (Brown).
Whether or not Iupati suits up, the Seahawks O-line won’t feature even one player who cracked the top 30 at their position in PFF grades. Their motley crew of offensive linemen will ultimately be no match for an Eagles defensive line that helped the defense to a fourth-place finish in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and a ninth-place finish in pressure rate (24.0%).
Even with Lockett and Metcalf sure to make a few plays downfield, Philly’s edge in the trenches is a good bet to maintain the trend of outdoor unders hitting in the Wild Card Round — especially when you also consider how banged up the Eagles are on offense.
According to our Bet Labs data, the under is 34-13 (72%) in wild-card games played outdoors since 2003. — Raybon
Special Teams Matchup
These special teams units are pretty evenly matched, though you’d have to give the kicking edge to Jake Elliott, who has missed only two extra points and four field goals (84.6%) for the Eagles this season. He’s also 7-for-11 from beyond 40 yards.
Meanwhile, after a Pro Bowl season in 2018 with the Jets, Jason Myers has struggled a bit in Seattle. He’s missed four extra points and five field goals (82.1%), and he’s just 6-of-11 from beyond 40.
Elliott hasn’t only been better this season, his familiarity with a stadium that can be tricky to kick in — especially with a high potential of winds — could make all the difference in what should be a competitive game. — Stuckey
Expert Picks
Raybon: Under 45.5
Both teams are incredibly banged up on offense: The Seahawks are without Brown after already having lost Britt earlier this season. They’ve also lost their top-three running backs in Chris Carson (hip), Rashaad Penny (knee) and C.J. Prosise (arm).
The Eagles don’t have the services of their top three wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (foot), DeSean Jackson (abdominal) and Agholor (knee). On top of that, they just lost guard Brandon Brooks (shoulder), who graded as the No. 1 guard in the NFL by PFF.
And we’re still not done!
Lane Johnson (ankle), the No. 2 overall tackle in PFF’s grades, was ruled out on Saturday morning. Oh, and did I mention Ertz, who leads the team in targets (135), catches (88), yards (916) and touchdowns (6) hadn’t been cleared for contact as of Saturday afternoon? Ertz looks headed for decoy status at best even if he does play through cracked ribs and a lacerated kidney.
History also suggests a low-scoring game — and not just because these teams played to an ugly 17-9 score earlier this season.
According to our Bet Labs data, the under is 34-13 (72%) in wild-card games played outdoors since 2003. The under is also 24-10 (71%) in Eagles’ home games since Doug Pederson took over.
Raybon is 191-150-11 (56%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Collin Wilson: Eagles ML (if the spread reaches +2.5)
Can the Eagles contain Russell Wilson in broken plays?
Seattle is one of the best offenses in the league, ranking fifth per Football Outsiders. The Seahawks have taken on the third-toughest schedule against opposing defenses, giving legitimate credit to the numbers they’ve been able to put on the board. Although they’re sixth in rushing offense, it’s passing downs where Wilson may be limited.
The Seahawks’ offensive line ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate, which could translate to plenty of busted runs by Wilson. The Eagles are sixth in pass rush per PFF, increasing the chance that the Seattle may be on the run in passing attempts.
The biggest advantage for Philadelphia in this situation is a top-five rank in stuffed and second level yards per Football Outsiders. Stuffed percentage measures runs that are tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage, while second level yards looks at runs between five and 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
In both cases, the Eagles have a large advantage in stopping the Seahawks in rush, pass or broken play attempts.
This is the last game of Wild Card Weekend, so an increase in parlay liability is expected on the Seahawks. I’ve used the Eagles in tease situations, crossing the key numbers of 3 and 7. I’ll also be backing the Eagles on the side and the moneyline.
The targeted window for betting on the Eagles should be within an hour of kickoff, when a possible juiced Seahawks -2.5 and moneyline presents the best value on the Eagles .
Wilson is 93-81-6 (53.4%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.