Extending Seahawks Chris Carson: Pros, cons and a potential contract

There are not many running backs in the NFL who are tougher and a better schematic fit than the Seahawks Chris Carson. Let’s examine some pros, cons and how much I think Seattle would be willing to offer in a deal.

The Seahawks are known for extending players in the off-season prior to hitting free agency. They have a few big-name players slated to hit free agency in 2021. To name a few Shaquill Griffin, Quinton Dunbar, KJ Wright, Poona Ford and Chris Carson. Today, I want to focus on the pros, cons and market evaluation for Chris Carson.

The Seahawks drafted Chris Carson out of Oklahoma State in the 7th round in 2017. To many, he was viewed as a special team’s guy, a player who would simply come in to compete. However, in retrospect when you watched his college film closer, you realized he was special. Not only was he a special talent, but he fits the Seahawks MO to a tee.

He is a bruiser through and through. He is one of the hardest running backs to tackle in the league.  His work ethic is phenomenal and has shown to be a high character player. This includes the time he intentionally subbed out of the game after a big gain, so that his teammate, Rashaad Penny, could score.

In Carson’s 3 years playing for the Seahawks, he has broken 1,100 yards in consecutive seasons (2018 and 2019). During that two year stretch, we began to see a more of a complete running back form. We saw his receiving targets double from 2018 (20) to 2019 (47). He is one of three running backs with 100+ forced missed tackles since 2018 (Chubb 110, Carson 107, Henry 103). Last season, he had the 6th most broken tackles at 28, 3rd most yards after contact at 1,008.

He did all this while having the 3rd fewest yards before contact (including only players with the top 10 rushing attempts). Finally, he had the second-most first down runs (75) last year, trailing only Ezekiel Elliot (78). When something is on the line, such as a game-changing first down or touchdown, Carson is a player you want in the game.

The stats show just how talented and hard-working he is. He may not be the fastest, or the most athletic. However, there are very few running backs who will try as hard on every snap as he does and undoubtedly will continue to do. With a revamped offensive line, it’s quite possible he is just now scratching the surface.

There is no doubt that Carson is a talented player. However, there are some very concerning facts that may dissuade the Seahawks from extending Carson.

I’ll start with the most obvious; he has major durability concerns. He has yet to finish a season without succumbing to an injury. In 2017, Carson broke his leg. In 2018 he had finger and knee injuries. In 2019, he had a serious hip injury. Carson has yet to be fully healthy for a playoff game. If you pay a running back big money, you need him there when the money counts the most.

The second reason, he has had some fumbling issues. In 2019, he had the most fumbles in the NFL amongst running backs with 7. Coach Carroll has stuck by his side through thick and thin. However, one has to wonder how much longer breaking the golden rule “take care of the ball” will be tolerated. This is even more true when considering tying big money to a player.

The final troubling fact has less to do with Carson and more to do with second contracts for running backs as a whole. The following are stats from running backs who received a 3-year extension after their rookie deal.

Contract outcome                           Percentage

Played out the deal                           16.7%

Player extended again                       0.0%

Asked to take a pay cut                     8.3%

Player was cut/released                70.8%

Player was traded away                  4.2%

From these numbers, only 16.7% of the contracts were allowed to play through. That means 83.3% of the time, the contract ended poorly. Running backs are beat up more than any other position. This is especially true for run-heavy teams, such as the Seahawks. Last season Chris Carson ran for the 5th most carries in the NFL with 278 attempts. The year prior, the 7th most attempts at 247. Between Carson’s high usage, and smash-mouth style of play, it doesn’t bode well for his longevity in the NFL.

Lets examine the current market, the 2021 free agency class and what I believe the Seahawks would be willing to offer.

The running back position is a difficult market to analyze. First, the lifespan of a starting NFL running back is relatively short. Second, very few players end up being extended by their original team. Third, the market values are all over the board.

Two of the more productive players last year are Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. McCaffrey is just 23 years old and eclipsed 1,300 running yards and 1,000 receiving yards for a grand total of 19 touchdowns. He is the most complete running back in the league, and it’s not really all the close.

Meanwhile, Ekeler is just 24 years old and is coming off a career year with 1,500 total yards, 11 touchdowns, and a crazy drop percentage of only .9% on 92 targets. He accomplished all this while in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon. If you were to ask which player is better, its unquestionable that the answer is McCaffrey. However, is McCaffrey so much better that he should make $10 million more a year?

That is exactly what happened this off-season with McCaffrey signing a 4-year contract worth $16 million per year. Meanwhile, Ekeler signed for a 4-year deal worth just $6 million per year. If you asked which contract teams would rather have for the player, most would say Ekeler. Most teams would rather have a cost-effective, low key star, than pay big for a superstar that may fizzle out halfway through the contract. This is especially true after players like Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley and David Johnson faded after getting superstar money.

This is how I expect the Seahawks to play this: If Carson comes into this expecting to be paid $10+ per year and won’t budge on the asking price, Seattle will likely help him pack. However, if he comes to play ball and wants to be in Seattle for Austin Ekeler ($6 million) to Melvin Gordon money ($8 million per year), a deal could likely be struck.

After all, next year’s 2021 free-agent pool is incredibly talented and Carson has the potential to fly under the radar due to the “injury-prone” tag. A few of the 2021 free agents running backs that will be hitting the market:

• Joe Mixon (25), Bengals
• Marlon Mack (25), Colts
• Leonard Fournette (26), Jaguars
• Davin Cook (26), Vikings
• Alvin Kamara (26), Kamara
• Kareem Hunt (26), Browns
• James Conner (26), Steelers
• Aaron Jones (26), Packers
• Derrick Henry (27), Titans
• Kenyan Drake (27), Cardinals
• Phillip Lindsey (27), Broncos

This star-studded group has the possibility to do one of two things to Carson’s market. Either he will end up with a phenomenal and healthy 2020 season and will become a headliner of the group alongside Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara. Or, he will succumb to another injury and fly under the radar.

The best contract I think the Seahawks would be willing to offer, at this point:

Terms: 3 years, $21 million

Avg Salary: $7 million

Guaranteed: $8 million

Cap hits by season:

• 2021: $5.5 million
• 2022: $7.5 million
• 2023: $8 million

Seattle could front-load his guarantees for 2021 and 2022. This would allow for an out after year 2. In other words, this would make the 2023 season a team option. This contract would give Carson top 10 running back money in today’s market while protecting the Seahawks future cap space. This sum is likely less than Carson will initially ask for. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he commands $10 million per year. I simply think it’s unlikely that Seattle would be the place to pay him if that were to happen.

One final note

Carson is one of my favorite players on the Seahawks roster. I simply love to watch him play. He has that dog in him, he punishes opposing defenses with tenacity, grit and explosiveness. Sure, he has battled injuries. However, each time he has come back a better player: faster, stronger and meaner.

If you asked me, I would pay Carson hands down. I stand on the sideline that running backs matter. This is especially true for the run-heavy Seahawks. Carson simply embodies the smash-mouth style of play that the Seahawks are known for. I am a stats guy, I know the stats on slide 2 are daunting. However, I am more than comfortable rolling the dice on a 2-3 year deal for the human bulldozer that is Chris Carson.