Predicting Seahawks stats: Wide receiver DK Metcalf

Now that we have established who Metcalf is, and what his role was on the Seahawks in 2019. Let’s evaluate what his stats could look like in 2020.

The Seahawks have predominately been a run-first team under Pete Carroll. However, this off-season seems to show a slight change in scheme. They released several of their best run-blocking offensive linemen in Fluker and Britt in favor of pass-blocking offensive lineman.

They also decided to pay a little extra to bring Carlos Hyde into the fold, who is actually quite talented as a receiving back. Whether or not, this ends up holding much weight once the season rolls around. It is important to keep in mind as there are some pawns that have been set in motion suggesting a slight philosophy change.

I am not saying Russell Wilson is going to throw the ball an extra 200 times a year. Shoot, I’m not even saying Wilson is going to be the sole focal point on the offense despite the pleas from fans. What I am saying, is I expect Russell to throw more than he has in the last few seasons.

In 2019, Russell Wilson threw the ball 516 times. Metcalf received just under a fifth of the total targets at 100. This trailed only Tyler Lockett with 110 targets. My best guess would be that Russell Wilson will throw just north of his 2016 and 2017 seasons. This would put his total attempts around 575 attempts on the year, or 36 attempts per game.

This doesn’t necessarily spell more targets for Metcalf though. With the small philosophy change, Seattle added some weapons to their offense. Seattle brought in Greg Olsen, Philip Dorsett, Carlos Hyde and Russell Wilson is still hoping Seattle brings in either Josh Gordon or Antonio Brown. There is a lot of talented competition for the ball.

This is where things get tricky, the receiving room is more crowded than ever. This hurts Metcalf’s chance at breaking out in terms of total targets. However, I am a full believer that with one year under his belt and the chemistry that Metcalf and Wilson share, Metcalf will be fed.

Prediction for DK Metcalf’s 2020 season stats:

Receptions: 61

Targets: 91

Catch Rate: 67%

Yards Per Catch: 17.2

Yards: 1,049

TD’s: 11

Drops: 3

While I think Metcalf’s overall target share will decrease just slightly from the extra competition. I think through his work ethic, report with Russell Wilson and god-given gifts he is going to break out.

I expect his yards per catch, catch rate, total touchdown to all increase. Given all the extra work put in on hand strength and his reduced targets, I think his drops will decrease as well. He is spending a good amount of time working out independently with Richard Sherman to help his route running, this should help him create separation again the best of them.

Fantasy football grade: Late round 4 or early round 5.