Predicting Seahawks stats: Wide receiver DK Metcalf

Evaluating the Seahawks off-season to help predict what DK Metcalf’s stats will look like in 2020. Will Metcalf enter into stardom or the dreaded sophomore slump?

The Seahawks struck gold when they selected DK Metcalf in the 2018 NFL Draft. During the majority of Metcalf’s collegiate career, he was labeled as a flash in a pan type of player. He was also known to be very one dimensional, especially in his route running tree.

Once the combine came around, he put on quite the show. He ranked in the 99th percentile in his speed, 97th percentile in burst and 91st percentile in catch radius. The main draw was his agility score, which was abysmal. He ranked in the 4th, yes that’s right, the 4th percentile in his agility score.

DK Metcalf, WR                   Percentile

Height: 6’4”                               86%

Weight: 228lbs                         95%

Wingspan: 82 7/8                    97%

40 Yard Dash: 4.33 s               95%

Vertical: 40.5 inches                93%

Broad Jump: 134 inches         97%

3-Cone: 7.38 s                             2%

20-Yard Shuttle:  4.5 s              4%

People were blown away by his sheer size and speed. The media went on a frenzy ranking him as a lock to go in the top 15 picks. However, as weeks went on, and the draft grew near, teams and media began to focus more on his poor agility scores and injury history instead. This was the main culprit for his drop on draft day.

Fortunately, this helped Metcalf fall into the perfect system in Seattle. Pairing Metcalf’s elite speed, size and explosiveness with Russell Wilson’s accuracy and elusiveness is a dream pairing.

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf showed a lot of promise in his rookie campaign, and plenty to work on.

At the beginning of the season, Metcalf definitely matched his pre-draft label of flash in a pan. He would have a big gain, then disappear. An example: In week 1 against the Bengals, he had one catch on two targets. However, that one catch went for 44 yards and a touchdown.

Fortunately, as the season progressed, so did Metcalf. He displayed considerable growth in his route running, footwork, hand strength and ability to wing it when the play broke down. By the end of the season, he had broken multiple records including the most receiving yards ever by a Seahawks rookie in a playoff debut.

2019 Stats for DK Metcalf:

Receptions: 58

Targets: 100

Catch rate: 58%

Yards per catch: 15.5

Yards: 900

TD’s: 7

Drops: 7

His growth did not come without hiccups, however. He faced many challenges during the year, including facing off with Richard Sherman head to head multiple times and failing to create separation. However, the two main issues that Metcalf faced during the season were fumbles and drops.

The fumbles were typically caused by him trying to do too much (video above). Whereas the drops seemed to come in waves. What impressed me the most was not his success, but the work ethic that teammates, coaches and Metcalf himself spoke of. When he had a hiccup, he put hours and hours into work to ensure that he didn’t make the same mistake twice.

There are countless videos of him putting in work well after everyone else left the building. He knows to become great, it’s not easy. It takes hard work, determination and a strong vision of where you want to go. Metcalf is special and it is beyond evident to anyone that is around him.

When you watch his rookie film, he always fights for the extra yardage. His footwork from the start of the year to the end was considerably improved. His drops decreased to being nearly non-existent. His targets increased dramatically. This all spells for a promising year two, right?

Unfortunately, the sophomore slump is very real. The question lies, will Metcalf beat out unforgiving sophomore slump to become a star in the NFL, or will he succumb to it?

Now that we have established who Metcalf is, and what his role was on the Seahawks in 2019. Let’s evaluate what his stats could look like in 2020.

The Seahawks have predominately been a run-first team under Pete Carroll. However, this off-season seems to show a slight change in scheme. They released several of their best run-blocking offensive linemen in Fluker and Britt in favor of pass-blocking offensive lineman.

They also decided to pay a little extra to bring Carlos Hyde into the fold, who is actually quite talented as a receiving back. Whether or not, this ends up holding much weight once the season rolls around. It is important to keep in mind as there are some pawns that have been set in motion suggesting a slight philosophy change.

I am not saying Russell Wilson is going to throw the ball an extra 200 times a year. Shoot, I’m not even saying Wilson is going to be the sole focal point on the offense despite the pleas from fans. What I am saying, is I expect Russell to throw more than he has in the last few seasons.

In 2019, Russell Wilson threw the ball 516 times. Metcalf received just under a fifth of the total targets at 100. This trailed only Tyler Lockett with 110 targets. My best guess would be that Russell Wilson will throw just north of his 2016 and 2017 seasons. This would put his total attempts around 575 attempts on the year, or 36 attempts per game.

This doesn’t necessarily spell more targets for Metcalf though. With the small philosophy change, Seattle added some weapons to their offense. Seattle brought in Greg Olsen, Philip Dorsett, Carlos Hyde and Russell Wilson is still hoping Seattle brings in either Josh Gordon or Antonio Brown. There is a lot of talented competition for the ball.

This is where things get tricky, the receiving room is more crowded than ever. This hurts Metcalf’s chance at breaking out in terms of total targets. However, I am a full believer that with one year under his belt and the chemistry that Metcalf and Wilson share, Metcalf will be fed.

Prediction for DK Metcalf’s 2020 season stats:

Receptions: 61

Targets: 91

Catch Rate: 67%

Yards Per Catch: 17.2

Yards: 1,049

TD’s: 11

Drops: 3

While I think Metcalf’s overall target share will decrease just slightly from the extra competition. I think through his work ethic, report with Russell Wilson and god-given gifts he is going to break out.

I expect his yards per catch, catch rate, total touchdown to all increase. Given all the extra work put in on hand strength and his reduced targets, I think his drops will decrease as well. He is spending a good amount of time working out independently with Richard Sherman to help his route running, this should help him create separation again the best of them.

Fantasy football grade: Late round 4 or early round 5.