Russell Wilson has had a record-setting first quarter of the season and looks like the 2020 NFL MVP so far.
Russell Wilson has been cookin’ his way to an incredible 1,285 passing yards, a 75.2 completion percentage, 16 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions. Wilson’s 75.2 completion percentage and 16 TDs both lead the league, along with his 9.4 yards per attempt and 136.7 QB rating which also are both the best among all starting QBs in 2020.
Wilson currently stands as the favorite for the NFL MVP award on Fanduel Sportsbook at +200, with Patrick Mahomes right behind him at +350, Aaron Rodgers at +450, and Josh Allen at +1000. Obviously, his stats are the most impressive of all the NFL QB’s this season but when he has gone up against the same opponents that his MVP competition has faced how has he fared?
This is the question that I set out to answer and interestingly enough through just 4 games played by most NFL teams, the three men behind Wilson in the MVP odds have all played a mutual opponent of the Seahawks. Bills quarterback Josh Allen faced the Dolphins, who Russ and the Seahawks just faced in week 1. Chiefs quarterback Mahomes faced the Patriots this past Monday who the Seahawks faced Week 2. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers faced the Seahawks Week 1 opponent, the Falcons, on Monday as well.
So, let’s answer that question: How did Wilson and his MVP competition fare when they faced the same defense?
Russell Wilson Josh Allen
24/34 passing (71%) – 24/35 passing (69%)
360 yards passing – 415 yards passing
2 TD passes – 4 TD passes
1 interception – 0 interceptions
112.4 rating – 146.7 rating
5 rushing yards – 19 rushing yards
Josh Allen clearly won this quarterback battle with the Bills defeating the Dolphins 31-28 Week 2. Russell just faced the Dolphins in Week 4 and was a key part of the Seahawks 31-23 win. Allen and Wilson both saw similar late-game situations as the Seahawks and Bills were in control late with a two-score lead, then both let up a Ryan Fitzpatrick passing touchdown late in the fourth.
Wilson had a decent game and got the job done late. Wilson had two highlights from this game with a great deep pass to David Moore in the second quarter, and a perfect TD pass to Moore in the fourth quarter. He also had his first real interception of the season on a bad throw into the endzone. I say first “real interception” because of his first interception of the season being a tipped pass off of the hands of Greg Olsen.
Allen was dominant against the Dolphins. He avoided turning the ball over which has been a problem for him throughout his short career and he had many highlights. He was responsible for all four of the Bills touchdowns as he threw all four to different receivers. The Seahawks and Bills will meet in Buffalo (hopefully) on November 8th which should be an excellent offensive battle and could end up being the game that decides who wins the MVP award.
Russell Wilson Patrick Mahomes
21/28 passing (75%) – 19/29 passing (66%)
288 yards passing – 236 yards passing
5 TD passes – 2 TD passes
1 interception – 0 interceptions
132.1 rating – 113.6 rating
39 rushing yards – 28 rushing yards
Unlike the previous comparison, Wilson clearly wins this QB battle. Wilson led the Seahawks offense to the most points that the normally dominant Patriots defense has let up all year. Wilson’s big night included his perfect TD pass to David Moore and his unforgettable deep-ball TD to DK Metcalf with 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore in coverage.
As I also mentioned earlier, the interception Wilson threw was not his fault in the slightest as it was tipped off of a wide-open Greg Olsen’s hands.
Patrick Mahomes also had a decent game but the Patriots defense looked quite different in the first half against the Chiefs compared to the Seahawks. The halftime score was just 6-3 but the Chiefs started to turn it on in the second half and a lot of that was due to Mahomes.
Both of Mahomes TD “passes” were shovel passes to his receivers in motion compared to Wilson’s 5 TD passes which, other than a dart to Tyler Lockett from the 4-yard line and a short pass to Freddie Swain, were passes that traveled at least 24 yards downfield in the air.
Russell Wilson Aaron Rodgers
31/35 passing (89%) – 27/33 passing (82%)
322 yards passing – 327 yards passing
4 TD passes – 4 TD passes
0 interception – 0 interceptions
143.1 rating – 147.5 rating
29 rushing yards – 5 rushing yards
While the other two matchups clearly saw someone have a better game, Wilson and Rodgers had nearly identical games against the Falcons. Of course, Rodgers played an 0-4 Falcons team at home in Green Bay while Wilson faced the Falcons in Atlanta Week 1 with no pre-season.
On top of their games being nearly identical, they were also equally impressive. Both had 4 TD passes and no turnovers. The games were also very similar as the Seahawks led the Falcons for the whole second half and only let them get within one score at the end of the fourth quarter.
Similarly, the Packers led the game the whole way while the Falcons brought it to an 11 point game early in the fourth but could not capitalize on getting the ball twice more and failing to convert on two fourth downs.
The Seahawks and Packers will not meet during the regular season, but a Rodgers vs. Wilson NFC Championship game seems to be like the likely scenario after both teams dominant 4-0 starts.