The Seahawks aren’t going to have much cap space in the offseason. Difficult salary cap cuts are likely and important players will need to be let go. This happens with nearly every NFL team, especially ones that are successful season after season. Good teams have good players (obviously) and paying those good players for a long period of time is difficult.
Heading into the 2020 season, Seattle had some decent cap space but then they traded for Jamal Adams (cap figure of $9.8 million) prior to the season and Carlos Dunlap (cap hit of $14.1 million in 2021) in-season. Seattle still owes Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner a combined $49 million next year.
This means that Seattle will have to either be really creative in making some cap space or cut one of two expensive, yet very productive, veterans and then hope that those players who replace them are very good themselves. This is an iffy proposition to count on. Seattle isn’t so good in can afford to have two players not fill the production of excellent but released players.
Seahawks future success
Seattle, in fact, could easily finish last in the NFC West next year with a little digression. The San Francisco 49ers are going to be healthier, and therefore much better, next year and the Los Angeles Rams aren’t going away. The Arizona Cardinals are improving as well.
Who the Seahawks sign as free agents and how good they are in 2021 is clearly going to be a big determinant of whether Seattle is successful or not next season. But maybe a bigger factor in that is who Seattle chooses not to release. And here are four players that would be tough cuts but might need to be for future success.
Bobby Wagner
I hate this one and I didn’t want to write about it and I hope it doesn’t happen. But think of it this way. The Seahawks drafted Jordyn Brooks in 2020 and he got better as the season went on. My assumption is that he would be the player who replaced K.J. Wright. Wright is a free agent this offseason. And this could still be the case. Maybe Seattle doesn’t re-sign Wright and Brooks steps in for Wright.
But what if Seattle chose Brooks to replace Bobby Wagner? Brooks is much more a linebacker like Wagner than he is like Wright, to be honest. Brooks in college, and showed in flashes this year, to be a tackling machine. Just like Wagner. Brooks didn’t look great in coverage and wasn’t really a coverage linebacker in college. Just like Wagner. Brooks is a fast linebacker who covers lots of ground close to the line of scrimmage, just like Wagner.
If Seattle were to cut Wagner, that would save Seattle $10 million in 2021 but would save them $27 million in the next two years and that is a ton of cash. That would also be a lot of money to spend on a good free agent or three over the next season and a few more over the next two years.
Releasing Wagner could mean re-signing Wright and pairing Wright with Brooks. Wagner is a Hall of Famer. Brooks will be a relatively inexperienced second-year pro. This isn’t a great thing but might be best for the long-term success of the team.
Wagner would be great for any other team. Seattle would not be as good defensively without Wagner most likely. But if Seattle could sign a couple of good free agents in other areas of need, it might be for the greater good of the team.
Jarran Reed
I don’t like this one either. (Here is a hint; I won’t like any of these cuts as they all are either productive players or could be good players long into the future.) Jarran Reed was a beast after the Seahawks traded for Carlos Dunlap. Since week 9 and including the postseason, Reed had 7.5 sacks and 15 quarterback hits. That is in 10 games.
Reed also stays healthy, having missed just one game due to injury in four years. But Reed is also really inconsistent and is the kind of player who relies on outside help to be good. In 2019 in 10 games (Reed was suspended for the first 6 games of the year) the defensive tackle had 2 sacks and 8 quarterback hits and zero tackles for loss. This was a season after Frank Clark left and before Carlos Dunlap arrived. Reed simply cannot do enough on his own.
Seattle would save about $8 million in cap space if Reed is released. The question also then becomes whether Reed is signed by another team, or how much another team wants to sign him for, and maybe Seattle brings Reed back at a lesser salary. If the Seahawks could cut $4 million off the cap hit in 2021 for Reed then it worth be worth trying to re-sign him.
Likely Reed stays on the roster simply for his ability to get interior pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But releasing him to sign a player who gets close to the same, and maybe more consistent, production would be worth it.
Rashaad Penny
Releasing Rashaad Penny wouldn’t save the Seahawks a ton of cap space (about $1.4 million) but let me ask you about what might be used with the limited cap space Seattle would save. A lot of Penny’s salary could be spent on signing players to the practice squad. Or possibly paying D.K. Metcalf’s entire salary next year. Will Dissly’s salary would be another.
Penny hasn’t yet proven that he can be good late in the season or even healthy. He has played in one game in the postseason and that was in 2018 when he had 4 carries. 2018 feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, Penny was injured late in 2019 and couldn’t play in the playoffs and even though he came back late in 2020, he wasn’t healthy enough to play in the postseason for Seattle this year.
From what I can tell, Penny is a decent dude with a lot of physical ability. But the NFL is a business and many times the quality of human one is or the possibility of production doesn’t get a player paid season after season. Whether this is right or wrong is a discussion for another day, but the fact is players get paid due to production and Penny hasn’t been healthy enough to be consistently productive.
Seattle does need healthy and good running backs in 2021 and releasing Penny might mean the Seahawks don’t have Penny or free agents Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde to begin next year. But maybe Seattle uses the $1.4 million they would save by releasing Penny as part of the money needed to re-sign Chris Carson.
Carlos Dunlap
I don’t want the Seahawks to release Carlos Dunlap as he made a massive difference after he was acquired midseason. But $14 million is $14 million and that is a chunk of change that could be spent in lots of ways to make the team better by signing multiple players instead of bringing back one player.
Plus, let me point out that Dunlap might have been extra-motivated by being traded (shunned might be a better word for the way he felt) by the Cincinnati Bengals midway through 2020. In the first four games after joining Seattle this year in week 9, Dunlap had 4 sacks and 9 quarterback hits. Once he settled into Seattle’s scheme and maybe lost some of the angst of being traded, Dunlap had 1 sack and 6 quarterback hits in the last five games of 2020, including the playoffs.
Or it could be that Dunlap was simply banged-up as he injured his foot after arriving in Seattle. That said, his age (Dunlap will be 32 years old when the 2021 season begins), his injury in 2020 bundled with his price tag of $14 million might mean that the Seahawks have to move on from Dunlap is search of less expensive (while also possibly less productive) talent.
None of Dunlap’s contract is guaranteed either. He re-worked his contract when he agreed to be traded to Seattle and part of the re-work was that he would get a $3.5 million roster bonus were he still on the Seahawks roster on the fifth day of the NFL’s 2021 business year. That will be in March. The chances are that Dunlap won’t get the roster bonus and will be a free agent.