This is an off-season unlike any other. The NFL and NFLPA agreed on a $175 million floor for the salary cap in this upcoming season. This number can increase slightly depending on new TV deals and if gambling agreements are put into place (the newest estimate is $180 million, per Adam Schefter). Because of this, the majority of the NFL is going to be struggling to find funds and this includes the Seahawks.
This is the largest drop in cap space since I started tracking the salary cap in the mid-2000s. A drop of over $25 million after it has increased nearly $10 million every year for a decade. This is where the issue lies.
The Seahawks are currently slated to have just $1 million in ’true’ cap space. They are also slated to have the 6th most free agents hit the market. This includes a number of starters. Players like K.J. Wright, Shaquill Griffin, Quinton Dunbar, Chris Carson, David Moore, Mike Iupati, Ethan Pocic, Benson Mayowa, and Pro-Bowl special teams ace Nick Bellore.
The Seahawks have a rough few months ahead of them; Tough Decisions are looming.
Ordinarily, when a team is in a tough spot financially, with a lot of free agents, they look to the draft. The only issue here is that Seattle has only 3 draft picks in this upcoming season. They traded the farm to acquire win-now players thinking this year’s college football season wouldn’t occur. Meaning, the draft would be a complete crap-shoot.
However, low and behold, many college teams performed. Players developed and this draft now looks to be one of the best in recent years. The hardest part about it, the draft is stocked with all the positions where the Seahawks need fresh talent. Positions like the offensive line, wide receiver, and running back. It also has some sneaky talent at cornerback and defensive tackle.
This is where the tough decisions come into place. The Seahawks already drafted Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright’s replacements. They selected Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, and Ben Burr-Kirven with first, third, and fifth-round selections. The team has tried investing heavily in the linebacker group. It hasn’t worked.
Something has to give. In order to get value, the team needs to give something that holds value up. For the Seahawks, there are only 5 players I believe hold enough value in the market to make a trade worthwhile. Wagner is one of them.
This is the third article in the series.
Continue with me on the next slides where I dive into why a trade might occur, what a trade could look like and a mock draft (post-trade).
Explaining why Bobby Wagner could be traded
Teams and players negotiate contracts based on the salary cap climate, as well as positional evaluations. As for Bobby Wagner, he was up for negotiation during the perfect time.
The world had no idea what COVID-19 was. CJ Mosley had just signed the largest linebacker contract by far, at $17 million per year. Wagner is a far superior MLB to Mosley. It only made sense for Wagner’s deal to top that figure.
Seattle didn’t have to think too hard on this one. With the upcoming TV deals and gambling rights agreements, it looked like this contract would be a steal in a year or two. Then COVID hit.
The Seahawks now have a 31-year-old middle linebacker who makes on average $18 million per year. If you remove CJ Mosley and Bobby Wagner’s outlier contracts, the average amount for the next top 5 MIKE linebackers is just $13.5 million. Is Bobby Wagner really worth 33% more than any of the other top paid players?
The correct answer is both yes and no. Is Wagner the best linebacker in the NFL? Wagner is by far the most complete linebacker in the game. He plays the run well. He plays the pass well. He can rush the passer, just doesn’t do it often. He can diagnosis the play on the fly and help others get into position.
Is he worth that much more than his top paid piers? The answer is no. At this point in his career, Seattle is paying Bobby Wagner to be consistent and a leader. He does both of those admirably. The gripe is that his play on the field lacks any of the truly game-changing plays. Seattle pays him like a true game-wrecker when he is more of a very successful game manager.
Bobby Wagner’s cap hits for 2021 and 2022 (the last two years on his contract) are very expensive. 2021 carries a cap hit of $17.15 million. 2022 carries a cap hit of just over $20 million.
With the Seahawks desperate to create cap space and acquire draft capital, they are going to have to give something of value to obtain these. With Bobby Wagner’s consistency and leadership, he will surely be a player with enough value to help remedy both these issues.
The Seahawks need to look to investing in the offense. They have so much money split between the sides that neither has the talent to truly thrive. If by trading Wagner, Seattle was able to acquire a top tier offensive lineman and a high potential player in the draft, wouldn’t you at least consider it?
Seahawks trade Bobby Wagner to the Raiders
Bobby Wagner is the epitome of what a team looks for in a leader. He is vocal and keeps his troops moving in the same direction. He doesn’t shy away from tough love or teaching moments. He also plays lights out on the field. He is Mr. Consistent.
This is something most teams need on their roster. It is something that will make his value on the trade market very high. Arguably the highest evaluation on the roster outside of Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and perhaps Jamal Adams.
Teams will be salivating to get the defensive stalwart and leader on their roster. I would expect the following teams to be interested. The Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Washington Football Team, and Cleveland Browns. I created a trade scenario for each of the above teams. The Raiders made the most sense.
Jon Gruden recently said that he thinks the thing holding his team back is the lack of a true leader on the defense. A person that every other player respects and will follow into battle.
If Seattle made Wagner available, you have to believe that Gruden and the Raiders would jump farther and faster than just about anyone else (outside of perhaps Bill O’Brian if he was still around). They have the assets, financial room, and roster to make this deal work for both sides.
Meanwhile, Seattle would receive a top 20 draft pick and a fifth-round selection. It equates to roughly pick number 14 in terms of value. That is about as much as you can expect for a linebacker over 30 in this financial landscape.
The Seahawks would save roughly $9.6 million with the trade this season. One can assume that Jordyn Brooks would then slide back to the middle linebacker. As for how to build around Brooks, there are options.
They could select a promising young linebacker in the draft. They could target a buy-low candidate in free agency. Shoot, they could just re-sign K.J. Wright. It likely wouldn’t even eat all the savings given the financial landscape. This would keep a leader on the defense, just for half the cost.
Draft pick gained from the Wagner trade
There are a lot of ways the Seahawks could go with this pick. I am going to go over my favorite players that would make the most sense for the team at this spot.
Draft: pick 17.
Jaycee Horn, CB: The Seahawks have not selected a cornerback before the third round in the Pete Carroll-John Schneider era. What a player to change the standard on. Horn is the perfect fit for the Seahawks. He is a long, lean and athletic corner. He is phenomenal in press coverage. He has fluid hips and great short-area quickness.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB: Arguably the most athletic player in this draft. He is the Jamal Adams of the linebackers in this draft. He can play with his hand in the dirt, as a standup linebacker, or as a safety. He is that physically and cerebrally gifted. Move Jordyn Brooks to the middle linebacker and slot Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah as the weakside linebacker.
Christian Darrisaw, LT: Darrisaw is one of the top tackle prospects in this draft. He has great length, size, and lateral agility. Best of all, his ceiling is limitless. The amount of growth he has shown year after year is truly exciting. His technical refinement is phenomenal. His footwork is precise. Darrisaw has the potential of a franchise left tackle.
Alijah Vera-Tucker, LG: Vera-Tucker is an incredibly athletic prospect. He plays with phenomenal balance and body control. He is a people mover with the versatility to play guard or tackle. He should be a day one starter and is arguably the best guard prospect in the draft. Vera-Tucker won the Morris Trophy for the most outstanding offensive lineman this last season. He also was graded as the best tackle (he played LT last season) in the country, in terms of pass protection.
Terrace Marshall Jr, WR: If the Seahawks are finally, truly building around Russell Wilson, why not give him another elite target. Terrace Marshall Jr was ‘the other guy’ in the historic LSU offense with Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase. Once those guys moved on, Marshall blossomed. He averaged over 100 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game this past season. He has great size at 6’3″, with excellent hands, physicality, and YAC ability. Best of all, he can play from every major alignment for wide receivers. A true weapon for the offense.
Let’s go through a full mock draft after this Bobby Wagner trade. The only way to show you how beneficial this move could be is to walk you through an entire mock draft.
Two more trades plus a mock draft
The most likely scenario and what I am going to project would be for the Seahawks to trade back and accumulate a stash of draft picks. Here is an example trade scenario using the widely accepted Rich Hill trade value chart.
Below is the trade using the value chart:
- Cleveland received pick 17 (950 valuation)
- Seahawks receive pick 26 (700), pick 59 (310), and pick 122 (50). The total valuation of 960.
How this works out, Seattle receives a first, second, and fourth-round draft pick for Bobby Wagner after the trade back. Is that not something that Seattle could use to rebuild the team?
I’m going to plug one more trade into here. Seahawks trade picks 59 and 122 for pick 78, 90, and 178. This leaves Seattle with picks 26, 56, 78, 90, 123, 149, 154, 178, and 186.
This is my mock draft after the trades:
- Pick 26: Alija Vera-Tucker, LG: Take the top interior offensive lineman in the draft. Finally, time to get Russell Wilson the protection he deserves. Plug and play left guard.
- Pick 56: Landon Dickerson, C: A true leader of men. Phenomenal technique, hand usage, footwork, and anchor. Plug and play center.
- Pick 78: Michael Carter, RB: Slightly undersized for a typical Seahawks back. However, the kid is a tank. He plays with phenomenal vision, contact balance, route running, hands, and elusiveness. This could end up being the steal of the draft.
- Pick 90: Osa Odighuzuwa, DT: As I outlined in my draft targets article, Odighuzuwa is the Poona Ford of the 3-tech defensive tackle. Plays with great burst and fully utilizes that God-given leverage.
- Pick: 123: Ambry Thomas, CB: If Thomas hadn’t opted out of the 2020 season he could very well have been a fringe first-round pick. He is incredibly sticky in coverage and very physical. He will drop simply because of the unknowns from his year off.
- Pick 149: Jaelon Darden, WR: An explosive athlete who can create separation with ease. Plug and play as a slot receiver. Set him up with a screen or two and watch him rack up some YAC. Also, he is a big play waiting to happen with punt/kick returns.
- Pick 154: Kenny Yeboah, TE: Let Hollister go. Draft one of the best receiving tight ends in the draft. Surprisingly strong in-line as well. Blocked very well in the Senior Bowl.
- Pick 178: Ta’Quon Graham, DT: His arms go for days. Does well generating leverage into power. Explosive off the line. Needs to work on overall consistency. High upside player.
- Pick 186: Anthony Hines III, LB: A heat-seeking-missile on the field. plays with solid coverage skills and takes good angles when tracking the ball. Fits as a WLB and core special teamer.
Let’s go through how this worked out. Seattle spends their top two draft picks on a couple of the best interior offensive linemen in the draft. Both players are rock solid targets and instant starters. Give Russell Wilson time to make plays.
They then select the best running back on the board. They let Chris Carson walk. A committee of Rashaad Penny, Michael Carter and (Insert free agent signing) is more than enough for what they need.
Draft two crazy high potential guys in Odighizuwa and Ambry. Both in positions of need. The next four picks are my sleepers. The draft hammers the trenches. After all, we just saw the Bucc’s win by dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This is how Seattle can replicate that.
After which, they can use the majority of the money saved from the Wagner trade ($9.6 million) to re-sign KJ Wright to a 2-year, $13 million contract. I don’t think his market is going to be as warm as he expects due to COVID. Mid-market player are going to get hit the hardest.
All in all, by trading Wagner Seattle accumulates a first, two-thirds and a sixth-round pick. They also would be able to re-sign K.J. Wright with money left over. Is this not something at least worth considering?