Explaining why trading Jarran Reed would actually make sense
Seattle broke out the pocketbook when they elected to re-sign Jarran Reed. The contract he was given surprised many coming off a disappointing campaign in 2019. Many, including myself, felt he was not worth the contract he was given.
The contract banks on the idea he can replicate his pass-rushing productivity from 2018 with Frank Clark. This was also a move of continuity. The Seahawks love Reed’s fit in the locker room. He is a leader of men and shows others how to be professionals. It’s just the type of guy you want with a young defensive line.
Where the issue stems from, the numbers on the surface lie. If you look at Jarran Reed’s stats during the 2020 season it looks as if he successfully replicated his 2018 campaign. He came in the top 5 for sacks amongst defensive tackles at 7. He also had a career-low in broken tackle rate of just 5.1%.
However, when you look deeper into the numbers you realize something. He didn’t produce that many sacks based on quality reps, it was based on quantity. Below is a list of all defensive tackles that had at least 5 sacks, their snaps played, pressure rate, and sacks if they played as many reps as Jarran Reed.
Name Snaps Sacks Pressure % Sacks w/ Reeds snap count
A. Donald 523 13.5 12.8% 14
D. Buckner 456 9.5 11.0% 11
C. Jones 388 7.5 13.7% 10
Q. Williams 339 7 10.3% 11
J. Reed 543 7 5.7% 7
D. Onyemata 351 6.5 11.1% 10
F. Cox 391 6.5 9% 9
N. Suh 502 6 8.6% 6
B. Nichols 292 5 9.9% 9
M. Brockers 346 5 5.5% 8
T. Settle 172 5 9.9% 16
What you can take away from the above chart, he played the most snaps out of all 5+ sack defensive tackles. He also had the second-lowest pressure rate. With his current snap rate, there was only one defensive tackle who wouldn’t have outpaced him in sacks. That would be Suh, who is a defensive stalwart.
To put these numbers into context, let’s look at Reeds numbers across the last 4 seasons:
Year Snaps Sacks Pressure rate TFL FF
2016 449 1.5 3.7% 2 0
2017 590 1.5 7.4% 6 1
2018 746 10.5 9.4% 2 0
2019 463 2.0 5.4% 0 1
2020 816 7.0 5.7% 0 1
Reed is solid in pass rush, but not special. He is alright in run protection, but nothing spectacular. He doesn’t possess the ‘IT’ factor to take over on the defense. He needs multiple others around to produce, otherwise, he is an afterthought. This might sound thankless. However, I just don’t believe he is worth what he is being paid.
Reed is going to be paid like a top 10 defensive tackle next season. With Poona Ford stepping up in a big way, Bryan Mone and Cedrick Lattimore both showing massive potential. I would personally rather trade high on Reed’s sack count and bet big on the younger, less expensive tackles to continue to grow.
The next question, what is Jarran Reed worth on the open market?