Seahawks are going to be good at running back and here is why

Having covered the offensive line and the QB departments in previous pieces, this article will be analyzing the Seahawks ground game. I will look at how effective it was in 2020 and what it can achieve and needs to achieve in 2021 in order to progress deep into the playoffs.

To assist with his analysis, I have constructed my own formula for ranking teams rushing games, I will not bore you with the complete mathematical formula, but it is based on the following factors.

• PFF.com Ratings of each teams running backs
• My own ranking of each running back
• Strength of each teams O-line
• Rushing TDs scored
• Red Zone performance of each teams ground game

So I will go through this section by section to evaluate where the Seahawks stand currently, what is the required level to be successful,  and what the Seahawks need to do to reach that level in 2021.

Firstly though, I want to touch on the results my formula indicates from last season.

1. Ten of the fourteen playoff teams from last season ranked 17th our better.
2. Seven of the final eight teams ranked 17th or better.
3. An overall rating of 67 my formula is required of a team in order to be a super bowl contender.
4. The Seahawks ranked 19th overall last season with a rating of 63.2

So to summarise my initial findings, the Seahawks ground game is short of the required standard, but not by much.

Now let’s look at each factor that contributes to this rating and what, if anything, is required to improve that rating.

Seahawks running back depth

Using the ratings from PFF.com for last season, I was able to rank the best two running backs from each team in order to rank them from 1 through 32, I also then factored into my formula how resilient to injury each team is in terms of drop off from RB1 to RB2 and the depth at this position for each team.

I used Chris Carson and DeeJay Dallas as the two running backs from Seattle, Dallas rather than Rashaad Penny due to Penny missing nearly all of last season.

The pairing of Penny and Dallas ranked eleventh overall, the top ten was as follows:

1. New England (Harris & Michel)
2. Minnesota (Cook & Mattison)
3. New Orleans (Kamara & Murray)
4. Cleveland (Chubb & Hunt)
5. Green Bay (Jones & Dillon)
6. Carolina ( McCaffrey & R.Smith)
7. Baltimore (Dobbins & Edwards)
8. Indianapolis (Taylor & Hines)
9. LA Chargers (Ekeler & Jackson)
10. Tennessee (Murray & Evans)

I am sure readers will dispute this top ten and have their own opinions, I just chose to use PFF as a reliable independent arbiter.

The first thing to note is that 6 of these top ten were playoff teams last season, if I went further down the list it would show that eleven of the fourteen playoff teams ranked 17th or better in this section of analysis.

Although neither of the Super Bowl teams from last season made it into those eleven of fourteen, the Chiefs coming in at 21st and the Bucs at 23rd.

What can we conclude from this? My conclusion is that it is important to have a quality running back or running backs, but that it is not a prerequisite for success. And in terms of the Seahawks, they have good enough running backs according to PFF ratings.

Indeed the return of Rashaad Penny and Dallas maturing in his second season could easily move the Seahawks into the top ten in 2021.

Comparing the Seahawks RB group to other teams

A plus in the Seahawks column is the depth they have at RB, they are not many teams where you can make an argument for four or even five running backs being able to be a viable option if and when required.

The five for the Seahawks are Carson, Penny, Dallas, Homer and Collins. If you compare that with three of the top ten teams from the previous section, namely Carolina, Minnesota and Tennessee where losing their primary RB hurts them massively.

Whereas if Carson was injured, the Seahawks still have four other possible options that may not be as good, but would feel more like having a case of turf toe than being hit by a truck.

In terms of their individual rankings I have them as follows;

20. Chris Carson

48. Rashaad Penny

70. DeeJay Dallas

100. Travis Homer

122. Alex Collins

So as a collective group I rank the Seahawks RB quintet 12th overall, those above them are

1. Indianapolis (Taylor, Hines, Mack & Wilkins)
2. Tampa Bay (Jones, Fournette, & Vaughn)
3. Cleveland (Chubb, Hunt & D.Johnson)
4. New England (Harris, Michel, White & Bolden)
5. Detroit (Swift, Williams & K.Johnson)
6. Chicago (Montgomery, Cohen & Damien Williams)
7. Green Bay (Jones & Dillon)
8. LA Chargers (Ekeler, Jackson & Kelley)
9. Houston (David Johnson, Lindsay & Ingram)
10. New Orleans (Kamara, Murray & Montgomery)
11. Buffalo (Singletary, Moss & Breida)

Again, we could argue all day and not agree on what the top dozen is, but let’s just accept is a good indicator rather than a perfect one. What this list does show is that eight of the fourteen playoff teams from last season feature in the top twelve. Indeed ten of the fourteen playoff teams are in the top seventeen.

What this list also demonstrates is the value of depth at this position, where teams reliant on one star RB drop out of this list compared to the previous list, whereas Indianapolis jump six places due to the quality and depth they have at the position. It also shows I think far more of the Tampa Bay RB’s than PFF do!

What does this all indicate for the Seahawks? Well, ranking eleventh in one list and twelfth in another shows they have enough ability at the RB position to be a contender, but a move into the top ten would not go amiss.

This list also once more shows that whilst it is pretty useful to have quality RBs, you can make the playoffs and indeed a Super Bowl in the case of the 22nd ranked by me Kansas City Chiefs without them. But probably more so is that you can get away with weaknesses in the AFC that you cannot in the NFC.

How good is the Seahawks RB and offensive line combination?

When I  combined the PFF Rankings and my own rankings of each team’s running backs, I got the following top fourteen.

1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Cleveland
4. New Orleans
5. Minnesota
6. Green Bay
7. LA Chargers
8. Detroit
9. Tampa Bay
10. Chicago
11. Baltimore
12. Seattle
13. Buffalo
14. LA Rams

Once again ten of these fourteen were playoff teams last season, so it seems a pretty accurate list. But the ground game is not only about the running backs you have, for starters you need an O-line that can create running room for those backs. So what happens when we include the strength of each O-line in the calculations?

The top fifteen incorporating the  O-line is

1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Cleveland
4. New Orleans
5. Tampa Bay
6. Green Bay
7. Minnesota
8. LA Chargers
9. Detroit
10. San Francisco
11. Seattle
12. Baltimore
13. Chicago
14. LA Rams
15. Buffalo

An again ten of the fourteen playoff teams from 2020 fear in this list, which is a good validation of the list. The Seahawks move up one place in this list. The much-maligned Seahawks O-line actually ranks seventh in run blocking according to NFL.com and tenth overall according to PFF.com ratings.

So again whilst there may be a little room for improvement, this should not overly hinder the Seahawks prospect for success in 2021.

Seahawks RBs should help the team score lots of points

Up to this point, the indicators are that the O-line is good enough and the RBs are good enough, but no more than that. But does this actually put points on the scoreboard? How effective are the Seahawks compared to other teams in producing rushing TDs and being able to score rushing TDs in the red zone?

After all we know Russell Wilson can get the job done through the air, but if teams are able to concentrate on defending the pass it makes life much easier for them, particularly in the red zone. It may also partly explain why Wilson threw three of his career-high thirteen INTs in 2020 in the red zone.

Is this just a  wild theory or a stone-cold fact? Well, when I factor in the ability to score rushing touchdowns in general, and particularly in the red zone, the Seahawks fall to be ranked nineteenth overall. They rank joint 25th in rushing touchdowns scored and joint 22nd in rushing touchdowns in the red zone.

Ultimately you can run all day, but if you cannot contribute points via the running game, you put an awful lot of pressure on the passing game and defense to pick up the slack. So this is clearly an issue for the Seahawks to solve in 2021.

Looking at the four teams that score the most rushing TDs in 2020, The Saints topped the charts with Taysom Hill providing eight of their 23 from the QB position, Tennessee came second with Derrick Henry as an elite back delivering the majority of these, then Arizona with Kyle Murray providing 11 TDs from QB and then Cleveland who have two really good RB’s and the best O line in the NFL.

So how can the Seahawks score more rushing TDs in general in 2021?

One potential source is Rashaad Penny. Prior to his ACL injury, Penny had the quickest 40-time of any of the Seahawks RBs at 4.46. As long as the injury has not taken away that speed, he may be the one back in Seattle that can go all the way to the house once he has broken through the first level of defenses.

If plays can be designed to provide Penny with the opportunities to do so, then this would move the Seahawks into the top half of the league rankings in this category. The red zone rushing issues may be a trickier one to solve.

This is ultimately a combination of the average nature of both the O line and the RB’s meaning that most teams, and particularly the better teams are able to defend the run against an average Seahawks ground game.

A younger Russell Wilson may have provided an alternative on the ground, but that no longer appears to be an option. So the Seahawks coaches need to get creative and come up with some other ways of scoring in the red zone, particularly come playoff time.

Gerald Everett could be the answer as an additional red zone passing target for Wilson, as could adding a Percy Harvin type via the draft. But with current personnel, it is difficult to see a significant upgrade to the red zone ground game any time soon.

Where the Seahawks rank

My overall top 20 teams and ratings on the ground with the current rosters are:

1. New Orleans 90.7
2. Cleveland 82.1
3. Tennessee 79.1
4. New England 77.4
5. Indianapolis 74.8
6. Detroit 74.3
7. Minnesota 73.9
8. Arizona 72.8
9. LA Rams 72.3
10. San Francisco 72.24
11. Carolina 72.23
12. Baltimore 72.1
13. Washington 71.8
14. Las Vegas 70.9
15. Tampa Bay 70.8
16. Green Bay 69.5
17. Buffalo 67
18. Dallas 64.9
19. Seattle 63.2
20. Philadelphia 62.4

Whilst the need for a ground game is not as great in the modern pass-happy NFL, you still need to provide some threat on the grained in order to compete at the higher levels. The Seahawks can compete with most teams in the regular season in the ground game, but they have a lot of top 15 rankings without excelling in any particular area.

This lack of top-end ability becomes even more apparent when it comes to putting points on the board without relying on Russell Wilson to keep bailing out the ground game. And is a real show stopper in the red zone.

There are positive signs though.

The addition of Gabe Jackson to the O-line should improve the running game, the speed added by the return of Rashaad Penny, the addition of Gerald Everett provides an alternative scoring source, notably in the red zone and adding a gadget type player via the draft would also present opposing defenses with a more varied offense to have to defend.

With the constraints facing the Seahawks via the salary cap and limited draft picks, this may ultimately be down to Pete Carroll, Andy Dickerson and the other Seahawks coaches to find creative solutions and play calling to help raise the Seahawks from their overall ranking of 19th in the round game.

If they can find small improvements across all aspects of the ground game, the Seahawks should be well placed to make another playoff run in 21.