Could 2021 be the year that Russell Wilson finally receives the overdue recognition he is due, and in doing so win the NFL MVP award for the 2021 season? It is pretty much beyond comprehension that Wilson has never even received one single vote for league MVP in his career to date.
Despite being seen by most as a shoo-in for the hall of fame, this lack of recognition during his career just makes no sense at all.
It seems his consistent superb level of performance over a number of years has counted against him for some reason, whereas others that have had single-season spikes in their performance, such as Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson and even Patrick Mahomes, have been able to win MVP awards.
Russell Wilson will win the NFL MVP this season
I wonder if Russell Wilson is a victim of his own excellence. Do the voters come to place their vote, and be drawn to vote for other candidates as excellence is just expected from Wilson, just as the Seahawks making the playoffs every season is also expected?
Apart from Wilson’s rookie year in 2012, when Adrian Peterson won the MVP award, a QB has won it every year, but never Wilson, not even one measly vote has come his way, despite being rightly recognized as an elite QB throughout that time.
Which begs the question, why?
It is not like he is unpopular or unliked in the game, or has any off-field incidents that have tarnished his reputation. Eight Pro Bowl appearances in a nine-year career to date and last year’s Walter Payton Man of the Year award indicate exactly the opposite. Or has he just been unlucky to find one better than him for the last nine seasons?
Possibly, but I think the higher expectancy level people apply to Wilson than other QBs is a key factor in why he has not secured an MVP award to date.
Russell Wilson early years
Let us take a look at all the QBs that have won an MVP during Russell Wilson’s time in the NFL and analyze what they did that Russell has apparently not done so far.
2013 – Peyton Manning
This was Manning’s fifth and final MVP award of his legendary career. Notably, it came as the QB of the Denver Broncos, and he was in his second season in Denver that year.
He led the Broncos to a 13-3 record and the number one seeding in the AFC playoffs. Statistically, he recorded 450 pass completions for 5,477 passing yards and 55 TDs. In that same season, Wilson led the Seahawks to a 13-3 record and the number 1 seeding in the NFC. Statistically, he had 257 completions for 3,357 yards and 26 TDs.
So whilst the younger Wilson in his second season did add over 500 yards rushing to his stats in 2013, this was a case where he was just outgunned by one of the all-time greats.
Although for a second season QB to achieve what he did should have planted the seed that this guy is really good in the MVP voter’s minds.
2014 – Aaron Rodgers
This was the year Rodgers picked up his second MVP, so what did he do to earn it? The Packers went 12-4 that season winning the NFC North and gaining the number-2 seed in the NFC playoffs, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks to the same record and the number 1 seeding.
Stats-wise, Rodgers had 341 completions for 4,381 yards with 38 TDs and just 5 INTs. Wilson produced 285 completions for 3,475 yards, 20 TDs and 7 INTs.
In both 2013 and 2014, Wilson’s passing numbers were not those of an MVP and he lost out to two of the very best all-time QBs.
Why did the voters choose Newton over Wilson?
First of all, it has to be said two different Newton and Wilson are in character. Newton loves to be seen and heard as the team leader and is very aware of the profile he projects, whereas Wilson is a much more humble character that turns up and does his job and lets others consider how good he is.
So a character like Newton draws attention to himself, which is a useful asset when trying to win votes as long as you play well. This was Newton’s fifth year in the NFL and in Carolina, the previous season they had been a 5-8-1 team and turned that around to a 15-1 record in 2015. Whereas Wilson’s Seahawks went from 12-4 to 10-6 and finished second in the NFC West.
So perception-wise, one team or individual has turned things around, whereas the other has actually declined in terms of wins produced. What did their individual stats say?
Newton 296 completions for 3,837 yards and 35 TDs passing-wise, Wilson made 329 completions for 4,024 yards and 34 TDs. On the ground, Wilson rushed for 508 yards and 4 TDs whereas Newton rushed for 636 yards and 10 TDs.
Total scrimmage yards and TDs wise Wilson had 4,532 yards and 38 TDs against Newton’s 4,473 yards and 45 TDs.
Therefore Newton had the edge stats-wise and particularly in the team record, which added to the fact that Newton had the appearance of turning the Panthers around single-handedly led voters to lean towards him.
So perception was a factor here, but more so that you will not win the MVP unless your team is seen to have improved beyond expectation and must win their division for you to be considered for the MVP award.
Let’s not take it away from Cam Newton, 2015 was a great season for him.
Why did voters choose Matt Ryan over Russell Wilson in 2016?
Ryan led the Falcons to the NFC South title with an 11-5 record, completing 373 passes for 4,944 yards, 38 TDs and just 7 INTs.
Wilson led the Seahawks to another NFC West title, with a 10-5-1 record, completing 353 passes for 4,219 yards, just 21 TDs but 11 INTs.
Statistically, it is clear to see how Wilson lost out to Ryan in the voter’s minds here, add to that the Falcons were an 8-8 team the season before, so again perception wise the Seahawks did what they were expected to, whereas the Falcons raised their level in the voter’s minds.
Realistically if a QB only throws 21 TDs in 16 games, he is not going to win an MVP award, particularly if you throw double-digit interceptions to go with those TDs.
This shows the perils of an annual award, as it will recognize changes in performance-pattern much more than consistent levels of performance.
2017 – Tom Brady
Wilson has been really unlucky to come into the NFL as Peyton Manning was coming to the end of his career, and whilst Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were hitting their prime years.
Brady led the Pats to a 13-3 season in 2017. In doing so he recorded 385 pass completions for 4,577 yards and 32 TDs and secured the divisional title and the number-1 conference seeding.
Wilson’s Seahawks went 9-7, lost out on the divisional title to the Rams and failed to make the playoffs for the only time in his career. So that alone took away any chance of Wilson being considered for the MVP award in 2017.
His stats that year for the record were 339 completions for 3,983 yards and a league-leading 34 TDs.
Those pesky kids!
2018 – Pat Mahomes
In his first season as the Chiefs starting QB, they had a 12-4 record and secured the top seeding for the playoffs, with Mahomes making 383 completions for 5,097 yards and mind-blowing 50 TDs.
Wilson and the Seahawks finished 10-6 and second in their division, once again to the Rams.
So given that a rookie starting QB with the associated lower expectation had come along and blown that perception out of the water and the Seahawks did not win their division it was game over for Wilson in terms of winning the MVP award in 2018.
His stat line read 280 completions for 3448 yards and 35 TDs. Pretty good for most QBs but below expectation/perception levels for Wilson.
2019 – Lamar Jackson
Whilst not the rookie starter that Mahomes was, this was Jackson’s first full season as the Ravens starting QB. In 2018 Jackson took over as the Ravens starting QB with them having a 4-5 record, they ended that season winning the division and a 10-6 record.
So again the perception was preset that he was special.
In 2019 the Ravens record was 14-2, one of the games coming in a game Jackson did not play in. So the perceived momentum triggered by Jackson from 2018 continued into 2019. Stats-wise he had 265 pass completions for 3,127 yards and 36 TDs but added a further 1,206 yards and 7 TDs on the ground.
Again the Seahawks failed to secure the divisional title, the 49ers taking that honor this year with the Seahawks finishing on 11-5. Again these facts alone pretty much ruled out Wilson being considered for the MVP award.
But with Jackson’s incredible performance it certainly did. Statistically, this was one of Wilson’s best years, he had 341 completions for 4,110 yards and 31 touchdowns.
A vintage year from a veteran QB
Having seen all these one-and-done and young QBs come along and thwart his chances of MVP recognition, combined with the Seahawks failing to win divisional titles, Russell Wilson pretty much nails it in 2020.
The Seahawks win their division with a 12-4 record, enter the playoffs as the 3 seed in the NFC and combines that with his best statistical year to date: 384 completions, 4,212 yards and 40 TDs.
The only downside to Wilson’s efforts being that he and the Seahawks had a poor end to the regular season, planting doubts in the voter’s minds. Combine that with Aaron Rodgers taking a relatively unheralded Packers squad to a 13-3 record, securing the 1 seed in the NFC and recorded the following stats line: 372 completions, 4,299 passing yards and 48 TDs.
Whilst there is not a huge difference between Wilson and Rodgers statistically, again I think the pre season perception came into this. The Seahawks did what they were expected to do, the Packers were certainly not seen as potential 13 game winners pre season.
Just what does Russell Wilson need to do?
Looking back over the last eight winners of the NFL MVP award, what common themes can we identify that appeal to the voters?
- They are all quarterbacks.
- All were on division-winning teams.
- All these teams were seeded 1 or 2 in their conference for the playoffs.
- The lowest number of wins by any team providing an MVP was 11.
- Six of these eight winners (Manning, Newton, Ryan, Mahomes, Jackson and Rodgers in 2020) were on teams that performed well above the perceived expectancy for that year.
Russell Wilson has what it takes
Let’s go through the checklist from the previous page. He is most definitely a quarterback, and amongst the best of all time too. The Seahawks can win their division, it will be tough as this is the best division in the NFL, but as I went through in a previous piece regarding the Seahawks schedule, I have them in for 13 wins. This certainly makes them a contender for the NFC West title.
If the Seahawks do rack up 13 wins, they are likely to be in the top 2 seeds in the NFC, even though we have an extra game in this year’s schedule. Again, 13 wins is above the minimum 11 required to be an MVP contending QB.
Finally, and I believe most significantly is that the perceived wisdom regarding the Seahawks prospects this year has the same journalists that will vote for the MVP putting them down as third favorites to win the NFC West.
In some recent articles I have read, they even have the Seahawks finishing last in the division. The consensus seems to be that the Seahawks will finish with somewhere between 9 and 11 wins, finishing third in the division and possibly making the playoffs.
So looking at item 5 on the checklist, if the Seahawks were to win their division with 13 or even 14 wins, rather than admit they got it wrong, the voting journalists will look for a reason to explain this unpredictable outcome. And the first place they will look is at Russell Wilson.
Added to this, the Seahawks have more than half of their scheduled games that are likely to be tightly contested games requiring the QB to make the difference between winning and losing. This is why I believe this is Russell Wilson’s best opportunity to win an MVP award.
If he can lift the Seahawks to win these tight games, bring the divisional title and high seeding to boot in what is the toughest division in the NFL he has to be a leading contender.
Add to that the uncertainty over other leading QBs such as Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson plus the expectancy levels around the likes of Brady and Mahomes being pretty high this could well be Russell Wilson’s year to not only garner his first MVP vote but to win it.