Seahawks running backs
Firstly looking at my top 50 rated RBs going into 2021, let’s look at what percentage by year of service is about to enter they are equivalent to:
Year 1 – 10%
Year 2 – 18%
Year 3 – 16%
Year 4 – 12%
Year 5 – 26%
Year 6 – 6%
Year 7 – 10%
Year 8 or beyond – 2%
So 82% of the top 50 RBs will be between their rookie season and their fifth year in the NFL. The three in year 6 are Derrick Henry, Zeke Elliott and Kenyan Drake. Henry and Elliott fall into the exceptional category and for me, Arizona rightly decided to shift Drake on.
What does this mean for the current Seahawks RBs? Chris Carson’s rookie deal finished in 2020 and the Seahawks got outstanding back for their pick from a seventh round draft pick across those four years.
Many franchises may have rewarded Carson with a three, four or five year deal off the back of those performances. The Seahawks have rightly recognized Carson’s contribution with a $10.4 million contract, but only for two years.
This will take Carson to the end of his sixth season. At that point, the Seahawks should allow him to move on via free agency or trade him during his sixth season.
Rashaad Penny enters the final year of his rookie contract and his fourth season in 2021. Again the Seahawks have correctly opted not to pick his fifth-year option up, which essentially puts Penny on a one-year prove-it contract. He has only made 27 appearances across his first three seasons and accumulated fewer than 1,000 scrimmage yards in those three seasons.
If he does produce both numerically and also manages to show durability in 2021, then the Seahawks could offer him a two-year deal similar to Carson’s but for less money, due to he is lower level of production.
If somebody else offers him a better deal then let him leave via free agency. A failure to be more productive than his first three seasons should see him move on via free agency at the end of this season.