Tight end durability
The top 30 TEs in my ranking ahead of the 2021 season look like this in terms of NFL service.
Year 1- 3%
Year 2 – 7%
Year 3 – 13%
Year 4 – 20%
Year 5 – 27%
Year 6 – 10%
Year 7 – 3%
Year 8 – 3%
Year 9 – 7%
Year 10 onwards – 7%
We can see from this that 76% of the top 30 are between years 3 and 8 of their NFL careers, indicating that keeping them beyond year 8 should only be done if they are exceptional.
Gerald Everett enters his fifth NFL season with the Seahawks on a one-year deal having been allowed to leave at the end of his rookie deal by the Rams. If he justifies his one-year $7 million contract, I would not advise giving him any more than a two or three year deal as a result.
Will Dissly goes into 2021 in the final year of his rookie deal, so essentially is in the same position as Everett in that he needs to show he worth giving a new contract for 2022 and beyond.
Colby Parkinson will be in his second NFL season in 2021 and will continue to serve out his rookie deal with three more seasons to show he merits retaining beyond that.
Essentially, I suspect the Seahawks will choose to keep one of Everett or Dissly at the end of the 2021 season and allow the other to move on. Succession planning wise they may well look to draft a TE in the 2022 draft with one of Everett or Dissly signed up through 2023 allowing them time to find their NFL feet. I fully expect the Seahawks hierarchy to continue to make the pragmatic decisions that will continue to ensure their successful model continues to deliver for years to come.