12th Man Rising
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Why Seahawks are better off not getting Odell Beckham, Jr.

By Todd Vandenberg

Oct 13, 2019; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) runs between Seattle Seahawks outside linebacker K.J. Wright (50) and defensive back Lano Hill (42) at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Seahawks won 32-28. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 13, 2019; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) runs between Seattle Seahawks outside linebacker K.J. Wright (50) and defensive back Lano Hill (42) at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Seahawks won 32-28. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports /
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Seahawks Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf
Nov 1, 2020; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (16) and wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) return to the locker room following a 37-27 victory against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

OBJ is lesser than both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf

Is that a crazy statement? Nope. For one, Mr. Vowell earlier wrote that the Hawks shouldn’t have claimed Beckham. He gave excellent reasons for this and covered both Odell Beckham Jr. himself, and the team needs. But let me expound a bit more on this, 12s. There has been far too much moaning over how badly Seattle missed out here. This is absolutely not the case. And now it’s time to get mathy.

As Lee wrote, OBJ hasn’t topped 55.6 percent catch rate since 2018. But there’s so much more to investigate with the Rams newest wideout. Beckham is now in his eighth season but has only played a full slate of games three times (that includes 2021). In that time his teams have played 118 games; OBJ played just 88 of those with 84 starts. For the math-challenged, that means he’s missed 25 percent of all contests. For reference, Tyler Lockett, who came into the league the year after Beckham, has played in 103 of the Hawks 104 games in his career. 99 percent is better than 75 percent.

Let’s look at OBJ’s performance when he does make it on the field. His catch rate in his spectacular rookie season was 70 percent. His second-best rate is just 62 percent. Again, compare that to Mr. Lockett, who’s lowest catch rate is 62 percent. Lockett’s catch rate this year is 71 percent, and that’s his lowest since 2017. DK Metcalf was rightly criticized for less than stellar hands as a rookie. His catch rate that year was 56 percent. Again, OBJ hasn’t reached that since 2018, and Metcalf’s rate in 2021 is just under 70 percent. tl;dr version: Beckham isn’t a reliable target.

But what does he do when he manages to corral the ball with his hands of stone? The last time OBJ caught as many as six touchdowns was in 2018. He has zero TDs so far this season. All good 12s know that Lockett and Metcalf have seen the end zone a lot more than that. But that’s not really fair for our purposes. Odell Beckham Jr. wouldn’t be replacing either of them, but would take reps from Freddie Swain and D’Wayne Eskridge. So how do they compare?

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