The Seattle Seahawks have reached a crossroads. Seattle is 3-8 and must think about making some serious changes this offseason. Some of the questions, of course, are which changes to actually make and then once those changes are made, what is the result?
Besides the four questions to follow, I could list several more. Can the Seahawks actually win 2 more games this year because at this point even the outcome of their matchup versus the winless Lions is in doubt? What does Seattle do to fix its running back situation as there is a very real possibility that Chris Carson never returns? Should Seattle ask Bobby Wagner to restructure his deal to help bring in better talent? And the same could be asked of Russell Wilson.
Not since Pete Carroll and John Schneider started running the team has Seattle had such important questions to answer in an upcoming offseason. Yes, Carroll and Schneider made a ton of changes their first couple of years but that was to help make a bad team good. Then the team remained good for the most part until 2021.
The four biggest questions the Seahawks must answer for future success
But Carroll and Schneider haven’t had to answer how to make a team that’s been good for so long that appears to be taking a downward turn better. I’m not sure they do know. And if they don’t then this franchise is going to be bad for a long time.
Of course, some of the questions that need to be answered the rest of this year and into the offseason include Carroll and Schneider and Wilson. What follows may be the four biggest questions for the future success of the Seahawks.
Number four: What do the Seahawks need to do with its 2022 draft?
Seattle currently has six picks in the 2022 NFL draft. They, of course, have no first round selection after trading that to the Jets for Jamal Adams prior to the 2020 season. That trade is going to pay off more for the Jets, it seems, than the Seahawks. While Adams is a good player, he has underperformed this year. Plus, Seattle kind of needs those first round picks back as it appears the team will need to rebuild soon.
Seattle has picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, two in the 4th round and then one in the fifth and one in the seventh. While the pick in the 2nd round would normally be later in the round as Seattle is normally good, by the time of the 2022 draft, Seattle could be choosing closer to the first round.
And Seattle will have a lot of needs and likely not be able to fill those needs with great quality. If I were doing the choosing for Seattle, in the second round I would make it a priority to get the best left tackle or taller cornerback available. Duane Brown is growing old in front of our eyes and needs to be replaced and Seattle doesn’t have anyone on the roster capable of doing that.
Tre Brown might be a good cornerback for a long time in the NFL, but with his knee injury there is no guarantee he is ready to play early in the 2022 season. On the opposite side, D.J. Reed is decent but having Reed and Brown outside at corner means Seattle has two smaller corners in a league that really likes tall receivers.
Seattle also has needs at center, backup quarterback, running back, edge rusher, right tackle and possibly safety if Quandre Diggs doesn’t re-sign. In fact, Seattle has more needs than they do picks.
Assuming John Schneider is still the general manager and Pete Carroll the head coach after the 2021 season ends, the Seahawks need to have their best draft in a decade to help the team get back to being good. Based on recent drafts, I am not sure they are up to the task.
Number three: Should the Seahawks trade Russell Wilson in the offseason?
Last offseason there was tons of speculation that Russell Wilson may want out of playing in Seattle. Since training camp started, though, the team and Wilson have disputed that speculation.
Wilson did say he was frustrated with getting hit too much. And nothing has likely changed that fact in 2021 as Wilson has been sacked 22 more times in eight games (he missed three with a finger injury). He does still hold on to the ball more and seems less capable of creating greatness in a storm of chaos as he did in earlier seasons, but the offensive line should take the brunt of the blame for Wilson being hit as much as he is.
Seattle tried to address the line issues this offseason by trading for guard Gabe Jackson. Jackson has actually been OK. It’s the rest of the line that has been bad. Left tackle Duane Brown is having his worst season since 2009 and has allowed 7 sacks already. Left guard Damien Lewis was made worse by switching him to the left side from the right this year. Center has been a problem no matter who has played the spot. And Brandon Shell is just a serviceable right tackle.
But now that Wilson has been injured and appears to be losing a step, his trade value is going down too. Before, maybe the Seahawks could get two first-round picks-plus for him. Now that seems less likely. Wilson is now 33 years old. That isn’t ancient anymore for a quarterback but it might be worse for a player like Wilson who needs his legs to help him be good and not just his arm, like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady.
Teams might not be as willing to get Wilson and give up a ton in return for him. Trading Wilson would mean a complete rebuild for the Seahawks and Seattle would need to get pieces back to help. I am not sure trading Wilson helps a true rebuild as he likely has less value on the market now.
Number two: What should Seattle do with Shane Waldron and Ken Norton, Jr.?
The Seahawks don’t have a good offense. They also have a bad defense. The question is if they should replace one coordinator or both or none. Norton, Jr. has a longer time of being bad in Seattle than does Waldron but Waldron has somehow managed to take a unit with a bunch of good skill players and make the unit awful. How is this even possible?
The offense is 24th in points-per-game (19.4). Since 1976 when the franchise started, Seattle has ranked 24th or worse in scoring just five times. While the defense is 7th in the NFL in points allowed, they are 31st in yards. Basically, an opposing team eats up so many yards and so much clock against Seattle that the opposing team has fewer drives to score points. Weird but that’s how 2021 is going.
But replacing both coordinators is almost like starting completely over with a lot of new coaches, not just the coordinators because the incoming coordinators will want their own assistants. Pete Carroll is a loyal guy (to a fault with Norton, Jr.) and not one to make changes quickly.
But Norton, Jr. should have never been hired in Seattle as he wasn’t a good DC before with the Raiders and the Waldron hire now just seems like one of the bigger mistakes of Carroll’s tenure. To be honest, if he doesn’t change at least one of the coordinators, Carroll might need to go as well after 2022.
Number one: Does Pete Carroll need to step down as head coach?
Since 2010 when Pete Carroll became the head coach and John Schneider became the general manager, Seattle has had a very unique dynamic leading the team. On most teams, the GM is the coach’s boss. It doesn’t work this way in Seattle because while Carroll is the coach, he is also the Vice President of Football Operations.
Schneider meanwhile is the GM and Executive Vice President of the team. Basically, Schneider cannot fire Carroll and, even if he could, would be very unlikely to do so.
Carroll would have to be forced out by ownership. I have seen on the interwebs people saying something to the belief that if Paul Allen, former owner of the team who passed away in 2018, were still alive he might let Carroll go. I find this difficult to believe for several reasons. But it also sells the current head of the organization, Jody Allen, short. We don’t know what Jody Allen will do and maybe she will intercede in a way Paul Allen did not.
But here is the thing, 12s. Pete Carroll is going to be the head coach in 2022 unless he chooses to leave. Carroll has been far too successful (nine playoff appearances in 12 seasons – assuming Seattle misses the playoffs this season) to be terminated because of one bad year.
Is Carroll getting older? Yes, he will be 71 years old when the 2022 season gets underway. But he is still in better shape than most humans. He is too loyal to his former players-turned-coaches (Norton, Jr.), though, and he may not want to be in charge of a rebuild. And a rebuild is something the Seahawks have to do to some degree after 2021 or they are going to face many years of being a bad team.