The Seattle Seahawks are entering another offseason that is bound to be filled with mystery, intrigue, and drama.
It has more or less become a staple. Whether that drama stem from holdouts like Bobby Wagner, contract disputes like Russell Wilson, or talking heads pointing out the talent discrepancy leaving in free agency.
This offseason is bound to be filled with much of the same. Both Pete Carroll and John Schneider are returning. The roster is getting older. The Seahawks have had years of poor drafts. Free agency has consistently been underwhelming.
The team has consistently been in on the trades. More recently the trades include Sheldon Richardson, Duane Brown, Quandre Diggs, Frank Clark, and Jamal Adams. However, many of these splash moves were very short-sighted. Often going for the all-in and devouring the team’s draft capital makes it difficult to keep the roster balanced.
If Russell Wilson is traded, who could be the next Seahawks quarterback?
Now looking at the roster, the team looks closer to a rebuild than a true contender. It’s easy to understand why Russell Wilson, whom by what we can tell, is looking elsewhere seeing if the grass is greener.
He likely is looking at his career as half over and his lofty goals not nearly close enough to being accomplished. It is not hard to see Wilson finally saying enough is enough and demanding a trade.
Trying to find another team where he is better equipped to succeed. A team that will give him more say. A team where he has more input into the decision-making. A team where he feels he can win a Super Bowl or more.
So, if Russell Wilson is traded, who will be the Seahawks next QB? The draft looks poor for QBs this year. Free agency doesn’t look promising either. A trade to acquire one will almost assuredly be the next move. Who could the Seahawks trade for?
Quarterback option number 1: Derek Carr
The Seahawks under Pete Carroll need a consistent player. They need a player who doesn’t shy from big moments. Most importantly, he needs a player who can accomplish the game plan.
Russell Wilson is an elite deep-ball threat. He is incredible in the big moments. However, for the Seahawks to be successful, the Seahawks don’t necessarily need all of this.
They need someone who can hit the throws. Hit the fade route, hit the man over the middle, read the field, and dump it off to the RB. Nothing splashy. They need a high-end game manager
Incomes Derek Carr. Think of it like going from an elite quarterback to an elite game manager. He averaged a 68 percent completion rate without many viable wide receivers on the roster. He amassed 4,800 yards this season and a career-high 282 yards per contest.
His on-target rate over the last three seasons averaged 80.76 percent. This is actually higher than Russell Wilson’s (78.9 percent). He can hit the short and intermediate throws with his eyes closed. He can see the game plan through.
However, a big part of the discrepancy in target rate is due to the two players’ very different average depth of the throw. There is nearly a two-yard discrepancy between the players. Russell Wilson is much more aggressive in his throws and really pushes the ball down the field. Carr relies on short to intermediate throws to move the ball.
One other item to consider. Wilson’s next contract will likely be something around the $40-$45 million per year mark. Carr is due for free agency in 2023 and will be considerably less expensive to retain. Something in the ballpark of $32-$34 million per year should be enough to maintain the high-level game manager.
Think of this as gaining $10 million per year to add a high-level offensive line or defensive weapon. It adds money to the cache.
What the trade would cost Seattle: 2022 1st and 2023 3rd round picks.
Acquiring contract: 1 year, $19.8 million.
Quarterback option number 2: Gardner Minshew
Minshew has been a fan favorite of Seahawk fans for a while. He is an easy guy to like. He was a stellar Washington State Cougar. He has a big personality. He is simply a fun-loving guy. An easy person to root for.
However, the appeal goes further than just the player profile. He has averaged a 64% completion rate thus far in his career. He is risk-averse in his approach. His average attempt is just 7 yards downfield.
However, he is deadly accurate in these throws. His average on-target rate is 86%. This is 6% higher than Carr, and 8% higher than Wilson. His interception rate is just 1.4%. This is one of the lowest marks in the league. The number rivals Wilsons.
The biggest difference, however, Wilson takes big shots. He more often than not strikes. Minshew is a great passer for short and intermediate throws. He lacks a lot of the zip required for the deep shots.
Honestly, that is ok. Look at Jimmy Garrapolo. He plays much in the same way. San Francisco’s offense is perfectly suited to what Jimmy G offers. Give him easy throws over the middle and allow his playmakers to make the plays. Gardner Minshew’s game is perfectly suited for this style of play.
Seattle wants to be a run-first team. Wilson’s lack of vision over the middle of the field and the run-first style has always been a weird pairing. They need someone who can simply make the throws needed. Not taking anything from Wilson. His big-play potential is elite. It has always just been an odd pairing.
Gardner Minshew is a very low-cost alternative and gives Seattle a solid, but not spectacular option. There is very little downside to this move. Jimmy G helped get a 49ers team to the Super Bowl. Sometimes, you don’t need an elite QB to reach that mark. This is one of those types of moves.
What the trade would cost: 2022 4th and 5th round picks
Acquiring contract: 1 year, $980k.
Quarterback option number 3: Kirk Cousins
Reportedly, Kirk Cousins was the Seahawk’s second choice if Russell Wilson had been drafted before they picked. They loved his play coming out of college.
Fast forward to this season, Pete Carroll is still applauding what Cousins provides to the Vikings. He is a perfect match for what Carroll wants in his quarterback. He is also very low maintenance.
Cousins has shown he knows how to utilize his weapons. The Vikings offense has been solid over Cousins’ tenure with the team. Seattle could Slide Cousins in without feeling much of a drop in production.
In fact, Cousins is coming off one of his best seasons this far through his career.
- Completion percentage: 66.3%
- Yards: 4221
- Touchdowns: 33
- Interceptions: 7
- Interception rate: 1.2%
- Yards per attempt: 8.1
- QB Rate: 103.1
Even more so, it is plausible that the Vikings who are looking at a new head coach and general manager are actively trying to trade him. Cousins’ contract is currently looking to have a $45 million cap hit. This would be the third-highest in the NFL next year.
The team also looks closer to a rebuild than a contender as it is. With new leadership, it would be easy to see the top brass looking to start over with new assets. After all, the team the previous leadership built (the current roster) got the two fired this off-season.
I don’t believe the Cousins trade will be abhorrently expensive considering the talent acquired. The biggest reason for this is his contract. Any team who trades for cousins is taking on a $35 million cap hit. This destroys his market. There are currently only 7 teams who can fit this contract into their salary cap as things stand today.
Seattle would be wise to extend Cousin upon his acquisition. This should lower his cap hit and give the Seahawks a little more breathing room. Something around $35-$37 million per year is likely his market value.
What the trade would cost: 2022 2nd round pick, conditional 2023 3rd round pick.
Acquiring contract: 1 year, $35 million.