Yes, the Seahawks could get Baker Mayfield. With a lot of caveats.

Okay, I’ll bite. The Seahawks could indeed trade for Baker Mayfield, but there are some major complications that would need to be addressed first. You know, little things like salary, compensation, and roster moves.

If the trade of Russell Wilson taught me anything, it’s to never write 137 articles saying the Seahawks will never do [insert your own unthinkable scenario here]. That’s an exaggeration, but not by much. So when the rumor mill started buzzing that our beloved Hawks were interested in current (but not for long, probably) Cleveland Brown quarterback Baker Mayfield, I restrained myself. Fool me once, Pete and John, that’s on you. Fool me 137 times, well… we all see Russ in Denver, right?

So now that I’ve had some time to think about it, it still makes no sense whatsoever for the Seahawks to trade for Baker Mayfield. Yes, I know Mayfield himself mentioned the Hawks. I know there are reports that Seattle has had several backchannel conversations with Cleveland about the former first pick of the 2018 draft.

FanSided’s Matt Lombardo has a great write-up about this, in fact. However, I do have a problem with this scenario. Not with Mr. Lombardo’s work, but with the basis of the story itself.

Seahawks trade for Baker Mayfield would require a lot of finesse

The article quotes an NFL executive who spoke – and I quote – “on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about another team.” You have to assume this executive is with the Browns, right? Otherwise, why would he or she have any knowledge of these communications?

Now surely, no one on the Browns would anonymously spread rumors that there’s a lot of interest in a quarterback that they are desperate to unload, would they? After all, I’m sure they want to keep the inordinately happy Baker Mayfield as an $18.58 million dollar backup, right? Riiiight.

I see that as a major problem with this executive’s story. But let’s assume it’s true, and that Pete and John really do want to add Mayfield. Assume they want to add him, despite the fact that if he performs well, he’d expect a colossal contract extension. A contract that size is exactly why Russell Wilson is now playing in Denver. But let’s forget that for now.

We also have to consider that the Hawks just signed Geno Smith to a decent contract, too. No, it isn’t nearly $18 million, but as Lee Vowell wrote, even the base seems to be a bit too rich. There is no way they gave Smith that money to be penciled in as the backup.

He’ll be expected to compete with Drew Lock for the starting gig, but if the Seahawks sign Baker Mayfield, you know it’s with the expectation that he’d be the starter. So the Smith deal makes even less sense then.

Unless – the Hawks make Smith part of the package for Mayfield. That isn’t very likely, as the Browns already have four QBs on their roster, including Jacoby Brissett and Joshua Dobbs. A swap of Smith and a draft pick for Mayfield and Dobbs seems unlikely, to say the least. But if the Browns are desperate enough – and they should be – it’s possible.

But then we come to the financials. There is no way Seattle will take on all of Mayfield’s salary. Cleveland would have to eat the majority of it to swing the deal or at least half. They currently have $15.6 million in cap space. Assuming Geno Smith’s salary at $3.5, that moves the Seahawks up to $19.1 million in cap space. Adding just half of Mayfield’s salary would still drop the ‘Hawks cap space to a shade over $10 million.

And now we come to the real problem with this proposed deal. Baker Mayfield is in the final year of his contract. One would have to assume that the Hawks would only want him if they think he can succeed, right? So let’s say he returns to form, and posts stats similar to his 2020 season. That would be 3,500 yards, 26 TDs, and 8 INTs.

You know how much that stat line would command in the 2023 market? Derek Carr threw for 4,800 yards, 23 TDs, and 14 INTs and signed a $121 million contract, $62 million guaranteed. Jared Goff – you remember him, right 12s – has a $134 million contract with $57 million guaranteed.

If Baker Mayfield has a good year – and if you don’t think he will, why sign him – the Seahawks will be signing a huge contract in 2023. Then again, I’m the guy who said the Hawks would never trade Wilson.

They could, of course, just let Mayfield walk after 2022. But why on Earth would they do that? Why waste any draft capital at all – even if it’s just a fourth-round pick, as Matt Lombardo suggested – on a rental? Especially as it would only delay any possible development of Drew Lock?

Listen, if Seattle wanted to sign a quarterback to a $300 million contract, they could have just kept Russ. If Mayfield was under contract for another three or four years, that would be one thing. The Seahawks should build a solid team, then bring in decent quarterbacks to complete, and draft for the future. That seemed to work pretty well in 2012, and Baker Mayfield has no part in that. Oh, and if you’re a Niner fan that got lost, a caveat means a warning that certain conditions may apply. You know, like Jimmy Garappolo isn’t worth a tenth of his contract.