On March 8th, the Seattle Seahawks made the biggest trade in franchise history. The decision to move on and trade Russell Wilson, a ten year starter with nine Pro Bowls and the franchise’s lone Super Bowl championship, is exciting and terrifying at the same time.
Seattle decided not to be held hostage by a quarterback that used the media to passive-aggressively voice his frustrations and demands. Russ is a Seattle icon that fans will eventually remember far more for the good times and incredible success, rather than the frustrating past two years that eventually led to him in Denver.
I can respect the Seahawks for this gamble, but make no mistake, this is a gamble.
Fans and the front office can argue about whether the team is rebuilding, or reloading. I view the trade as an opportunity. Seattle has an opportunity with this decision to get back to being great again, doing things their way.
Making the case for Geno Smith as the Seahawks starting quarterback in 2022
They’ve already used two of the Broncos picks on players that will help them better control the line of scrimmage. Seattle also has the opportunity to be wrong, and fall into the dark abyss of a team in quarterback purgatory.
The most important decision in the history of the franchise was made on March 8th. The next most important decision will be who the team believes is the next franchise quarterback. If they choose wisely, they’ll be in the championship hunt by 2023. Here’s part one of a multi-part series where we make the case for the Seahawks next franchise quarterback.
Reason 1: Experience
While no one expects Seattle to be a contender in 2022, finding the right quarterback for the future could happen as early as this season if things go right for Geno Smith. A backup to Russell Wilson for the past two seasons, he will now get the first crack at taking the job.
The biggest advantage Smith has over the competition is his experience. Signed for more than what we’d normally expect for a backup quarterback, I believe Seattle is giving Geno more than a fighting chance at the top spot.
After the end of the third round of the NFL draft, the Seahawks didn’t select one of the many QBs that had fallen dramatically. Pete discussed their decision, complimenting each of their QBs on the roster, and acknowledging Geno was in the lead. Caroll told reporters:
"The competition is underway. Geno has come in and is obviously ahead going in because he’s had all the background with us. He’s been with us for a number of years. He leads the charge right now. He’s in command of our system as much as a guy could be."
A starter for two seasons back in 2013 and 2014 for some terrible New York Jets teams, Geno fell out of favor with the franchise, bouncing around as a backup for the past six seasons, with the past two as Russell Wilson’s understudy in Seattle.
The advantage of being in the building with Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron for now two off-seasons and one regular season should give Geno the keys to the car at the start of the pre-season. Make no mistake, that is a huge bonus for Geno in the upcoming quarterback battle.
Reason 2: Moderate success in a difficult situation
When the quarterback you are backing up to hasn’t missed a start in 149 straight games, it’s easy to fall into the trap of believing you’re never going to see the field again. Geno Smith was in this position when Russell Wilson took the field for game 149 at home against the LA Rams.
Halfway through the 3rd quarter, the Seahawks season…and future…changed forever. Russell Wilson severely injured his middle finger on his throwing hand, an injury that would cause him to miss the rest of the game and the ensuing three weeks.
Into the fire was Geno Smith thrown, tasked with trying to lead a comeback against the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams and their vaunted defense. Most starting quarterbacks fold under the pressure of Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, and Jalen Ramsey, let alone a journeyman backup like Smith. Instead of folding, Geno gave Seattle a chance and looked pretty impressive.
While Seattle would lose 26-17, Smith completed 10 of 17 passes for 131 yards with 23 yards rushing, as well as a touchdown and a late interception that should have been called for pass interference when the game was hanging in the balance. Most impressive, Geno led two long scoring drives, including a 99-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
Over the next three games, Smith would have his moments of successes and failures. Facing the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, he would struggle mightily as his offensive line cratered to T.J. Watt and crew as he was sacked five times.
With the game on the line and down three with 90 seconds to go, he marched Seattle 50 yards down the field to nail a game-tying field goal. The celebration didn’t last long, as Smith was sacked and fumbled the ball on their second drive of overtime, leading to a 23-20 defeat.
The following week Seattle faced the New Orleans Saints at home on Monday Night Football. On his first pass of the game, Smith threw a beautiful 25-yard laser to D.K. Metcalf, who would take it the rest of the way for an 84-yard touchdown. The ball was beautifully placed in between the corner and the safety, allowing Metcalf to do his thing.
Unfortunately, due to weather and more poor offensive line play, Geno would struggle mightily as Seattle lost in an absolute must-win game at the time 13-10. This was the night that Pete Carroll told the media he wouldn’t still be in Seattle if it were not for Russell Wilson. Not a great vote of confidence in Geno.
In his final start of the season, Smith and the Seahawks played their best game of the year. Yes, they were playing the worst team in the league in Jacksonville and the worst head coach in NFL history, but there was still a lot of good to take away from the game. Smith would finish 20 for 24 for 195 yards and two passing touchdowns, along with a rushing score.
Seattle had a terrible game on the ground, but with solid protection, Smith was efficient and got the ball to Seattle’s stars in Metcalf and Lockett. Lockett would snag twelve catches for 142 yards and Metcalf would have six catches for only 43 yards, but he was a monster in the red zone, collecting two touchdowns against former Seattle cornerback Shaquill Griffin.
Geno truly looked like a point guard distributing the ball to the open stars, something Pete is looking for in his QB this season.
After the victory, Seattle would go on their bye and Russell Wilson would take the job back from Smith. Wilson was clearly not healthy, and Seattle would pay the price, losing their next three games and essentially ending their season. Even with a non-existent offense, the Seahawks were within one score in the fourth quarter of all three games.
You have to wonder if Seattle would have been able to win a couple of those games if they had stuck with Smith and forced Russ to rest. The season, and the narrative around Geno Smith, could have really changed.
Considering everything that Geno Smith went through in 2021, it’s not hard to imagine him being far more comfortable, consistent, and successful knowing he’s the guy.
Reason 3: Connection with Metcalf & Lockett
One of, if not the most important player on the Seattle Seahawks right now is D.K. Metcalf. Seattle will need him to get back to contender status. The best way to do that is to give him the ball. It was a very small sample size, but the connection from Geno to Metcalf was real and stronger than anything we’d seen from Russ and Metcalf.
During the three-and-a-half game stretch where Smith was the quarterback, he connected with Metcalf on 17 of 21 passes, 251 yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s good for a 156.1 passer rating, which is pretty darn impressive. Most importantly, in three of those scores, Smith trusted Metcalf and his size, by just throwing balls up in the air for him to grab.
That may not seem like a big deal, but it was something Wilson struggled to connect with big targets, such as Jimmy Graham and Metcalf. In an area that was a weakness previously, appears to be a perfect match between Geno and Metcalf.
The connection wasn’t just with D.K. as Tyler Lockett got into the mix as well. As stated earlier, when given time, Smith cooked the Jaguars by feeding Lockett and Metcalf the ball. The combined eighteen catches were a season-high for the two stars. The only week that rivaled the eighteen catches was in an overtime loss in week 2 to the Titans, when they combined for fourteen catches.
With the addition of the talented tight end Noah Fant from Denver, I want to see Seattle feed those three players at least twenty times a game. In the right situation, Geno has shown he can be that man.
Verdict
So we’ve made our case for Geno Smith. With his experience, moderate success, and connection with the star wideouts, there’s reason to think he could be successful and take the reins into 2023. There’s also over half a decade of evidence of NFL teams showing they don’t trust him to lead their franchise. We saw him come up short in three huge prime-time games last season, failing to get the final score when they needed it most.
We also saw Smith be accused of some poor decision-making off the football field recently. Taking this all into consideration, here are the three most likely outcomes I see for Geno Smith becoming the franchise quarterback into the 2023 season.
Best Case Scenario- He’s Ryan Tannehill 2.0. Smith is a solid fit for Shane Waldron’s offense, using a strong running game and scheme to deliver the ball in space to Lockett, Metcalf, and Fant. The Seahawks shock the world in week 1, handily beating the Russell Wilson-led Denver Broncos.
With an improved defense and Geno being a mobile game manager, the Seahawks use their somewhat easy schedule and go 11-6, good enough for the top wildcard spot in the NFC. With a little luck, Seattle wins one, maybe two games in a significantly weakened NFC conference.
There’s hope and optimism that with the extra draft ammunition, Seattle can put the finishing touches on a Super Bowl contender, with Geno Smith guiding the ship.
Worst Case Scenario- Geno is given the job despite showing he is not good enough to take it, due to his experience. He continues to play like a backup, and Seattle falls to 1-6 before finally giving Drew Lock a chance, with the season already in the tank.
Verdict- Geno Smith is Tavaris Jackson 2.0, and Seattle is competitive in a seven-to-nine win season. He isn’t a realistic long-term answer, but he battles to be Seattle’s backup QB in 2023.