The Seahawks have nearly had a decade-long run of relative success. But in 2022, there are several reasons not to trust Seattle will be good.
We all hope, of course, that the Seahawks are going to far exceed expectations this year. There is talent on the team but there are also more questions about the squad entering Week 1 than in more than a decade.
For Seattle to be good this year, a lot of things are going to have to go right. Seattle is going to have to get lucky bounces in games more often than not. And some veteran players are going to have to have career seasons.
But the most likely outcome is that this year’s team isn’t going to be one that wins the majority of its games. Here are three reasons why.
There are several reasons not to trust the 2022 Seahawks to be good
Relying on rookies is a mistake
I realize the Seahawks made a concerted effort to get younger this year. After having just three draft picks in 2021 (none of whom have yet to really successfully pan out), Seattle ended up with 9 in 2022 and the class seems to be a very good one.
In fact, at least three of those picks – left tackle Charles Cross, right tackle Abe Lucas and cornerback Coby Bryant – should start in Weel1 against Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. There is a very real chance that at least five of the rookies are starting by Week 8.
But Seattle seems to be wanting to go from 0-60 in a matter of weeks instead of a rebuild over an entire year or two. If Seattle had decided to sign a veteran or three to help bridge the gap between players like D.J. Reed and Tariq Woolen, the team would be better and the rookies would have had time to learn a bit.
Rookies are going to make mistakes and hopefully learn from them. But they also need time to build confidence and I am not sure that is the case with the 2022 Seahawks. The team might be sunk by Week 5 and the rest of the season just one ugly, mistake-filled mess.
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll trying to re-invent the wheel again
I like Pete Carroll. He is the best coach in Seahawks history and by far the most successful. He knew what he wanted to do when he came to Seattle in 2010 and how he thought the team should be re-made to make it into a championship contender. You may not remember, but he was right then. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl for the 2013 season.
But when Carroll and general manager John Schneider arrived in Seattle, they had an aging quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) who they started for a season and then went into rebuild mode. In 2011, Hasselbeck left and Seattle started Tavaris Jackson at QB.
Jackson was really just a career-long backup who got his chance to start finally and he did just OK. Then in 2012, Seattle chose its quarterback of the future in the draft, Russell Wilson.
Fast-forward to 2022. Geno Smith, likely the most Jackson-type quarterback to ever grace the Seahawks sidelines other than Jackson himself, is going to be the starting quarterback. Smith, like Jackson before him, is not the long-term answer to who Seattle should start at quarterback.
It’s clear Carroll is trying to do the same thing he did in 2011 and get the team in much better position to win in a couple of years. The difference is that the NFC West is a lot better now and into the future than it was in 2011. Seattle has a steeper climb to make in two years and Carroll may no longer be the coach in 2024.
The Seahawks coordinators are still unproven
Here’s what we know. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is entering his second season as an NFL coordinator. For a lot of 2021, the offense didn’t look that great and had issues staying on the field. Then Rashaad Penny got healthy and that in itself made the offense look fantastic for about five games. But did Waldron really do enough to prove he knows what he is doing?
Defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt is in his first year as an NFL coordinator. Hurtt is a coach who players seemingly love to follow. Hurtt will also have a lot of help from associate head coach/defense Sean Desai. But do we even know if Desai is a great coach? No.
While the team itself is young and somewhat inexperienced, so are the coordinators. Basically what the Seahawks front office is asking from the 2022 team is to all learn how to do their jobs together. That is a massive risk to take in the NFL.
This might all work out perfectly. The coaching staff is hungry to prove themselves and so are the players. But everybody is likely going to make a lot of mistakes and if these happen at key times in games, Seattle will lose. And they will lose a lot.