So, the Seattle Seahawks have a good offense this year. Who would have guessed?
In particular, no one would have expected that Geno Smith would be playing like one of the better quarterbacks in all of football. But that’s exactly what he’s been to this point, leading the league in completion percentage by a massive margin, with no other qualified QB even within seven percent of him.
Furthermore, Seattle’s offense is flowing better than it has since Marshawn Lynch and Doug Baldwin were terrorizing defenses on all levels of the field. Despite running the fifth-fewest plays on offense in the league, the Seahawks are third in yards per play, meaning that the defense’s inability to get off the field could be hindering the offense from scoring even more.
Should the Seahawks extend quarterback Geno Smith past 2022?
So, how much of this newfound success can be placed on Geno’s shoulders? At first glance, it might seem a bit unfair to heap such praise on Smith, in part because Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas have been such unmitigated revelations for the Seahawks’ offensive line. Another factor might be the addition of Noah Fant as a premier pass-catching option in the middle of the field.
And, of course, there’s a clear argument to be made that the Seahawks’ offense has really only been tested once thus far — the trip to Santa Clara in week 2 that saw the 49ers systematically dismantle Seattle’s offense. All three are valid counterpoints to the stats without context, as gaudy as they may be.
But do they outweigh what the numbers say? Do they match up to the critical eye?
Are the numbers on Geno’s side?
Adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) is a metric created by the fine folks at Pro Football Reference that attempts to measure how valuable a QB has been to his team by taking their passing yards and measuring it against their passing volume, turnover rate, and sack rate (sacks are a QB stat, primarily, but that’s a discussion for another time).
It’s not a perfect metric, but it does serve as a good measure of how efficiently a QB can move the ball without giving it away. Smith currently ranks 7th in the NFL in ANY/A, trailing names like Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert.
Okay, but ANY/A is still pretty rudimentary as far as advanced stats go. How about something a little more comprehensive? Expected points added per play (EPA/play) is one of the more advanced metrics out there, and it is essentially a measure of how a team or player has performed in relation to what an average team would do in the same situation.
The calculations themselves are way too complex to describe in passing, but the idea is essentially that every play affects the likelihood of scoring on that drive, and EPA/play attempts to calculate how much likelier a team is to score based on the results of the play, taking into account down, distance, and yardage gained. Geno currently ranks fifth among QBs in in EPA/play, trailing only Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.
Geno shares one great trait with another Seahawks QB
Now, EPA/play isn’t a complete measure of a QB’s value, either. EPA/play doesn’t account for the game clock as a dynamic factor, nor does it account for any sort of context relating to assignment or teammate error. It devalues the run game as a result because it can’t account for the effect running the clock down has on a game.
Of course, reducing a complex idea like a QB’s relative performance in a football game down to a single number is a fool’s errand — even proprietary measures like ESPN’s Total QBR and Pro Football Focus’s player grading system are often mocked by fans and players alike.
After all, different people see different things when they watch film, and it’s all too easy for people to see the same 7-yard slant as a smorgasbord of different praises and indictments, all lobbed toward different players who may or may not have had anything to do with the play itself.
So, what can we say definitively about Geno Smith from a film perspective? Well, between the stats and the film, I think it’s pretty reasonable to say that he’s an accurate QB with a good sense of tempo. He uses the middle of the field better than any Seahawks QB since Matt Hasselbeck, and he operates well on the move.
All of these things are exactly what you want from a modern QB in a system derived from the Mike Shanahan coaching tree, which the Seahawks’ system is (Waldron → McVay → K. Shanahan → M. Shanahan). They’re not necessarily superstar QB traits, though, and one thing we have yet to see from Geno is a consistent ability to hit the home run ball downfield.
If I had to compare Smith to another QB from years past, the first name that comes to mind is Jeff Garcia; he’s a good field general, plays within his offense as well as anyone in football, and doesn’t make the kinds of mistakes that kill offensive momentum very often.
Geno might bridge the gap in a Seahawks rebuild
Here’s the rub — Geno Smith is playing on a one-year deal, and becomes a free agent after this season. The Seahawks still have a lot to fix on the defensive side of the ball, and if they want to maximize their window for contention, they’ll want to wait on drafting a QB until they have that defense fixed.
But if Geno keeps playing at the level he’s playing, it’s hard to imagine that someone wouldn’t throw him a fat contract this coming offseason if Seattle doesn’t lock him up before then. Currently, the Browns and Dolphins both have quality rosters and self-inflicted questions at QB, the Buccaneers will be waiting to hear from Tom Brady this offseason, the Panthers are still a mess at the position with no end in sight, and the Ravens could still be toying with the question of what to do with Lamar Jackson.
In short, there is no shortage of teams willing to show up at Geno’s house with the keys to a Brinks truck in hand.
Let’s say that Smith goes and makes a Pro Bowl this season. Would it not be fair for him to ask for a Ryan Tannehill-type contract? That would be something in the realm of four years, $120 million. But do the Seahawks really want to commit $30 million a year to Geno Smith, knowing full well how many holes still need to be patched on their roster?
So, what to do? Let’s say Geno continues at a pace that’s not quite so sizzling as what he’s done to this point, but is still solidly average to above average, like a Ryan Tannehill. That’s going to knock the Seahawks out of contention for the top pick, almost certainly, and that could very well mean they would have to trade up for the QB they would want from this draft, leaving the question of what they would do about the defense. Extending Geno after the season would likely raise the exact same question.
What other options are out there? Do you go out and sign a Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones, hoping for a successful reclamation project? It seems to me that Geno Smith has left the Seahawks with an incredulous proposition — they may need to sign him to a significant-but-reasonable extension right now before they’re forced into kneecapping their rebuild or trying to mold Daniel Jones into a viable playoff starter.