The 6-5 Seahawks play the 3-8 Rams in Week 13. Both teams are on losing streaks but Seattle has a better chance of having a successful season. Seattle, in fact, likely faces a must-win game to have any chance of making the postseason.
This is especially true because while the Rams usually give the Seahawks fits, some of the players that are troublesome for Seattle will miss the game for Los Angeles. Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp are all out. Jalen Ramsey is healthy, though, and his matchup versus DK Metcalf will be one of the key matchups to watch.
Donald being out is important because the Rams haven’t had to play without him in years. He hasn’t missed a game since 2017 and that wasn’t due to an injury. But there are trends heading into the game that might already tell us who will win.
Three stats that could predict the outcome of Seahawks vs. Rams Week 13
Stat 1: Seahawks third down defense
Seattle is 29th in third down defense and has allowed opposing teams to covert 45.7 percent of the time. Los Angeles likely wants to hold on to the ball as long as it can and keep the Seahawks offense off the field. If the Rams can sustain drives by running the ball (they have a backup quarterback starting in John Wolford so they probably will not want to be tossing the ball around the field all that much) then they can shorten the game.
One thing that Seattle needs to fix defensively is getting opponents off the field on third down. The last two weeks Seattle has been awful allowing the Raiders and Buccaneers to pick up 18 of a possible 29 third downs. If that happens in Week 13, the Rams will dominate time of possession and force Geno Smith and the offense to try to score each time they have the ball. That’s tough to do against a Rams defense even if they don’t have Donald.
Stat 2: Rams hurry percentage is terrible
By “hurry,” I don’t mean the 2-minute offense for Los Angeles. I am referring to their ability to hurry opposing quarterbacks when they drop back to throw. The Rams usually have one of the better hurry percentages in the NFL but in 2022 it is only 4.2 percent (even worse than Seattle’s 5.7). This is 29th in the league and goes a long way toward telling the story of why the Rams defense is underperforming this year.
Los Angeles is allowing 23 points a game, which is 18th in the league. But this is 5 points worse than just two years ago. Without Stafford and Kupp, the Rams need their defense to be great to win games and they haven’t been. Hopefully, that won’t change in Week 13 against the Seahawks.
Stat 3: Rams scoring percentage is shockingly low for them
In 2021, the Rams scored on 45.9 percent of their drives, third in the NFL. This year they are scoring on 29.1 percent of their drives, 31st in the league. Again, most of this happened while Matthew Stafford was still under center. Seattle, in contrast, is scoring on 43.7 percent of their drives, fifth in the league.
If some how and some way the Seahawks defense can play anywhere near decently, Seattle should be able to limit a struggling Rams offense. Even if Seattle’s offense struggles, they should still be able to score enough to win. And Seattle needs to have this victory in Week 13.