Geno Smith. Two words and one sentence. He has had an odd year for the Seahawks. He has been very good overall and Seattle would not be where they currently are (7-8 record which would have been worse had it not been for Geno) if not for Smith.
But there has been a difference in Smith between how he played prior to the Seahawks’ Week 10 trip to Germany and since. In fact, the entire team has been different since Week 10. Prior to the loss to the Buccaneers in Munich, Seattle had won four in a row and seemingly had found itself a talented and cohesive group made up of excellent rookies and savvy veterans. But that was a lie.
So, to some degree, was how good Geno Smith was. From weeks 1 through 9, Smith had 15 touchdown passes and just 4 interceptions and he had lost a fumble. Since Week 10, Smith has had 12 touchdown passes but 5 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles. That’s 9 turnovers in six games and Seattle has gone 1-5 in those games.
Seahawks have a decision to make about Geno Smith
Are those losses all Geno’s fault? Of course, not. He has still played better than the team overall. But many of his touchdown passes since Week 10 – 4 to be exact – have come with less than 4 minutes remaining and when the game has basically already been decided. Smith, like the rest of the team, isn’t getting enough done when the game is still somewhat in doubt.
Which leads to the question: Is what is happening to the Seahawks’ offense in the last six games (meaning, not nearly as proficient as in the first nine games of the 2022 season) more an issue of the game planning by offensive coordinator Shane Waldron or the execution of the game plan by Geno Smith? Should Seattle re-sign Geno to a multi-year deal or should they let him walk as a free agent after this year and draft their quarterback of the future? Week 16 might have held the answer.
Geno makes huge mistakes for the Seahawks in Week 16
Geno Smith made two huge mistakes against the Chiefs. Maybe neither would have changed the outcome, but it was a weird game. If you look at the statistics for the game only, you may have thought the game was a close one. But Seattle never came closer than 14 points down after the was 8:56 left in the second quarter. And some of that is Geno’s fault.
The first mistake came on the Seahawks’ opening drive of the first half with Seattle down 17-3. A touchdown on the drive likely changes the narrative of the game. But on a third and six from Seattle’s 29-yard line, Smith tried to force a throw to Marquise Goodwin that fell incomplete. The issue was that Smith had acres of the field ahead of him and could have easily run for the first down to keep the drive alive. Heck, he could have likely run for 20 yards without any issues.
This was not a difficult play for a veteran quarterback to make a read on. The field was so wide-open that Smith should have just run. But that he made an in-between decision on such a clear play means he might not be playing overly intelligently currently. Maybe he is trying to force things to help his team out, but in this case, it was a monumentally poor decision.
The second critical mistake Smith made came early in the fourth quarter with the game still 17-3 but with Seattle starting a drive on the Chiefs’ 45-yard line. Seattle got to KC’s 22-yard line and had a 2nd and 12 play. Smith threw an interception on a pass attempt to Goodwin that was so off track it looked like Goodwin had run the wrong route. Smith later said the throw was his fault.
What do the Seahawks do with Geno?
This leads me to the issue of what to do with Geno Smith after the season. He is a free agent and can go wherever he wants unless the Seahawks put the franchise tag on him and pay him north of $30 million in 2023. Early in the season, this seemed like a no-brainer decision and made sense to try to get Smith to sign an extension for a few years maybe.
But since Smith’s incredibly brilliant start to the year, he has cooled off. From weeks 1 through 13, Smith had a passer rating of 108.7 and a TD-to-interception ratio of 22-6. His average yards per attempt was a stellar 8.08. But in the last three games, Smith’s passer rating is 83.9 (which be 29th in the NFL if stretched over the entire season), his TD-to-interception rate is 5-3 and he is averaging just 5.98 yards per attempt.
Part of the issue might be that Smith has gotten little recent help from the play-calling or the running game (until Week 16). The Seahawks offensive line hasn’t been as good in recent weeks either. But Smith drives the car and isn’t driving it nearly as well as he was.
But is Smith really the quarterback we saw in most of the first half of the season or is he the quarterback of the last few weeks? He hasn’t been awful but he certainly hasn’t played like a quarterback who can lead a team to a deep playoff run. Maybe Seattle should take a quarterback high in the 2023 NFL draft.
The future of Geno Smith
Smith might be playing for his near future in the next two games. We know that Pete Carroll and John Schneider like Smith a lot because they keep bringing him back every year. Smith has been a QB for the Seahawks since 2020 and it would not be surprising if he returned in 2023 and beyond.
Some team, based on Smith’s overall numbers in 2022, is going to pay Smith a lot of money next year. Smith is currently only making $4 million this year and will probably be at $25 million or better next year wherever he winds up. Quarterbacks get paid a lot of money whether they are Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan.
But Smith’s personal stock could go up a bit or go down a lot based on how he does in the final two games of the season. If Seattle somehow makes it into the playoffs, great for 12s, the team and the quarterback. But Seattle has an outside chance currently of getting there. But if Smith plays so well that Seattle puts up points and is in contention to win both games, good for him.
But if Smith continues to make the errors he has in the last few weeks, teams might fall back on the assumption about Smith prior to this year: That he simply has too many turnovers that keep his team from winning games. Carroll and Schneider might also be looking at the long-term for the team and Smith isn’t part of those plans. If he isn’t, Seattle probably won’t be better in 2023 either but possibly by 2024 with the right 2023 QB draftee.