Geno Smith has a good year in 2022 for the Seahawks. Compared to any other season in his NFL career, Smith was unbelievably good. That’s part of the issue moving forward with Smith. Do teams, including Seattle, believe he can be just as good in future seasons?
There are as always a bunch of teams that need quarterbacks. Several teams might be a decent quarterback away from being a playoff contender. While some of these teams will find their future quarterbacks in the NFL draft, some teams also have the cap room to bring in someone like Smith.
And while Smith mentioned wanting to “repay” Seattle for them taking a chance on him to be a starting quarterback when hardly any other team – maybe zero teams – and stated he wanted to end his career in Seattle, Smith also owes it to himself and his family to see what is available on the free agent market. It would be nice if Smith came back to Seattle without Seattle having to eat up most of its current room by signing Geno, but NFL players participate in the sport to get paid and Smith, like everyone who works, deserves to get paid as much as he can. If a team offers $10 million a year more than the Seahawks, Smith should take it.
4 potential landing spots for Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith this offseason
Seattle would have a few options to replace Smith, but not all of them are good and none of them are sure things. Maybe the best thing to do in the long run would be to draft a quarterback high in the 2023 NFL draft. By the time the draft comes around in late April, we should know if Geno Smith is returning or not. Or heck, we might know that Seattle has signed Derek Carr to be their quarterback. Who knows?
But Geno Smith is an unrestricted free agent and can choose to go where he wants unless the Seahawks franchise-tag him which seems unlikely. For Smith, where to sign, despite his professed allegiance to Seattle, might simply come down to three things. Those three things are: 1) Guaranteed money, 2) how long the deal is, and 3) can the team win? So where might Geno Smith end up in 2023 and beyond?
New York Jets might like a Geno Smith reunion
I know there are probably some bad feelings from Geno Smith toward the team that drafted him, the New York Jets. But an easy way for a team to overcome bad blood is to pay a player a lot of money. And if the 2022 Jets had the 2022 version of Geno Smith playing for them this year, the Jets would not only have likely made the playoffs, they would be a very dangerous team. New York is stacked on defense with some young talent on offense but zero talent at quarterback.
New York is currently tight against the cap for next season but they also have some players they could release or re-work and create extra cap room. If New York releases Carl Lawson, for instance, the Jets could save $15 million. Lawson was good overall but only had 2 sacks combined in the last 7 games and a good quarterback should outweigh the need to pay a decent defensive end when a team has other edge rushers to take up the slack.
Plus, New York has young players as key spots. Breece Hall should return at a running back after being injured after a promising start to his rookie season. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is another good rookie who will be better with a quarterback like Smith.
If Smith were to go to New York and be a Jet again, they would likely be the team expected to finish second behind the Bills in the AFC East. That should be good enough to make the playoffs. And once in the playoffs, the Jets’ defense is good enough to win close games, especially with a quarterback as good as Smith.
The Tennessee Titans could do a quick reload with Geno Smith
The Titans are an interesting team. Their defense is fantastic against the run and bad against the pass. Offensively, Tennessee can run extremely well (because of Derrick Henry, of course) but can’t throw well at all. It also doesn’t help that now-fired general manager Jon Robinson made the bone-headed move of not working out an extension with receiver AJ Brown. I am sure Brown now sends daily texts to Robinson thanking him for trading him to the Eagles where Brown is currently enjoying a ride to the NFC championship game.
One of the easiest ways for Tennessee to get back to its 2021 level is to add a good quarterback which Smith is. I realize that Tennessee drafted Malik Willis in the third round of the 2022 draft, but Willis would greatly benefit from Smith. If Tennessee signed Smith to a two-year deal Willis would have a year left after Smith’s deal ended. Willis always needed a bit of time to learn how to be an NFL quarterback and a little extra time won’t hurt him.
Tennessee currently sits at number 11 overall in the 2023 draft. That’s likely not good enough to grab a high-end and immediately impactful quarterback, but it definitely is in good shape for a good wide receiver. Tennessee needs a tight end and by the time of the draft, they would know if they have a good quarterback for two years.
Smith would put Tennessee back in the playoff hunt because of the division they play in. The Jaguars are getting better too in the AFC South, but with Geno Smith, Tennessee might be better in 2023 and in 2024. The Titans might not be a Super Bowl contender adding Geno Smith, but they’d be a lot closer than they currently are. Tennessee would need to release Ryan Tannehill but doing so could free up $18 million and releasing Robert Woods would save $12 million. Plus, NFL teams can find a way to make room for players they want to sign.
The Atlanta Falcons could build the team around Geno Smith
The Falcons are a bit like the Seahawks. Atlanta might have a young quarterback in Desmond Ridder who could be OK, but he seems more like a backup than a full-time starter. For the Seahawks, if Geno Smith leaves, the only quarterback of any note who possibly could be brought back would be Drew Lock who is more likely a long-term backup. But Atlanta also has good cap space and good draft capital, much like Seattle.
Atlanta also plays in a division where it should be easier to catch up to the division leaders than a team that plays in the NFC West, for instance. No team in the NFC South had a winning record this year. Tom Brady might not return to the Buccaneers and while they won the division with an 8-9 record, they could be markedly worse in 2023. Carolina might be better but they don’t have much cap space and the Saints are stuck in cap hell even more.
The Falcons weren’t an awful team in 2022. They went 7-10 but with a young roster that should get better. With Geno Smith, Atlanta could conceivably be a playoff team in 2023 in the division they are in. Plus, the Falcons have decent draft capital for the next two years.
Smith could be a bridge between now and the Falcons’ future quarterback but Atlanta can afford to pay him well. Plus, Smith is only 32 years old and if he does well enough in the next couple of years, he could be QB1 in Atlanta for the next five seasons. This means Atlanta could build up the roster around the quarterback, just like the Seahawks should want to do.
The Seahawks should welcome Geno Smith back
So what should the Seahawks do at quarterback? They could draft a pretty good one at number 5 overall in the 2023 draft. Would it be a surprise if general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll decided to do that? Not really. Schneider and Carroll have been really good for more than a decade at shocking people with what they do in the draft. But one thing they didn’t do for the most part in the 2022 draft is zig when people thought they should zag.
In 2023, Schneider and Carroll need to do the same thing they did in 2022. That is, draft a potentially very good player at a position of need. Were some people surprised that Seattle chose running back Ken Walker in the second round? Maybe. But most 12s probably weren’t because Seattle’s running back room for the 2022 season was iffy beyond the oft-injured Rashaad Penny.
But Seattle, should it re-sign Geno Smith to something around $25 million or so, needs to build the team around the quarterback. The Seahawks need an interior defensive lineman who can create chaos, like Jalen Carter, or a dynamic playmaker on defense, like Will Anderson. This may all be moot by the time the draft rolls around because if Smith isn’t re-signed, or franchise-tagged and has signed elsewhere, Seattle needs to take a quarterback.
Either way and before the 2023 draft, Smith needs to be re-signed by the Seahawks for two seasons at $27 million a season with a guarantee of $30 million and an option for the 2025 season. The team can afford this and needs to draft other positions of need. Smith wants to stay in Seattle and Seattle should want Geno Smith to stay as QB1.