It was one of the great stories (yes, a comeback story) in all of football in 2022, the redemption of Geno Smith. From being embarrassed on his draft night, to his fall from grace in New York City, and his decade-long exile within the league, it wasn’t until this season that Geno was given a real chance. With an opportunity that few believed he would seize, Geno Smith played like a top-10 quarterback, leading the Seattle Seahawks to a 9-8 record and a stunning playoff berth.
As his award-winning season came to a close, the biggest question before the offseason could truly kick-off was whether he’d return to Seattle. While talking heads covered every possible scenario they could imagine, it always seemed pretty clear there were two options: Sign a team-friendly deal that also gives Geno some financial security, or go find the best offer out there on the market. With such a special rookie quarterback class, and numerous good to great NFL QBs looking for a job, Geno was always going to have a hard time finding a massive deal that would force John Schneider and Pete Carroll to walk away from.
This high ground the Seahawks had with Geno led to them coming to an agreement on a 3-year $105 million dollar extension. It’s a life-changing deal for Smith, who will receive $26.1 million up front as a signing bonus. It’s a franchise-changing deal for the Seahawks.
A detailed plan on how the Seahawks can have great offseason success in 2023
Within this three-year deal, Seattle has the potential to not only get out of the deal after this season and the next, but they also were able to lower Geno’s cap hit to only $10.1 in 2023. This incredibly team-friendly deal gives the Seahawks a potential top 10 QB whose cap counts for less than 5% of the team’s salary cap in 2023.
Given this exciting news, I decided to play armchair GM and break down how the Seattle Seahawks can put themselves in Super Bowl contention not only this season but going forward.
It’s just Seahawks business
The first order of business is to continue to clear up some cap space while locking up players that I think can help Seattle get back to the Super Bowl in the near future. John and Pete already made a few moves with cuts to guard Gabe Jackson and defensive tackle Shelby Harris. With those moves, the Seahawks are currently projected to have $29.1 million in cap space.
While may seem like a solid amount, between $8-9 million of that will be going to this year’s draft class. Around $20 million is simply not enough for a team that needs a little more than another strong draft to catch up to NFC powers like Philadelphia and San Francisco. We’re going to have to add a few more names to the chopping block.
It’s been clear since the day after Seattle gave up 25 unanswered points to the 49ers in the NFC Wild Card that getting better in the trenches is the key to closing the gap with Seattle’s division rival. We already cut Shelby Harris and we’re going to continue to make cuts on the defensive line, releasing Quentin Jefferson and Bryan Mone. These moves create about $7.2 million in cap space, putting the Seahawks at $36.3 million.
Locking up a defensive anchor
Cutting players is never fun, real, or imaginary. In a much more fun way of creating cap space, we’re going to extend defensive end Uchenna Nwosu. One of the better free agent acquisitions of the Schneider/Carroll era, Nwosu had 42 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Having just recently turned 26, we’re going to lock him up to a three-year extension. It is tough to know exactly how much Seattle can lower their cap through this extension, but with him projected to be a $13 million dollar cap hit, we’re projecting to lower that number to $7.25 million in 2023. This move now frees up the Seahawks with $42 million to work with, a massive difference from before these moves.
Seahawks’ in-house free agents
Before we head to free agency to wine and dine future Seahawks, we are going to decide which pending Seahawks unrestricted and restricted free agents.
Retaining or Re-signing
Ryan Neal (RFA): Seattle keeps him on a 2nd round tender, good for $4.3 million.
Marquise Goodwin (UFA): A surprise stud #3 receiver this season before getting hurt, we’re keeping the Geno/Smith connection alive on a 1-year deal for $2 million.
Rashaad Penny (UFA): The ultimate boom or bust running back, Penny and the Seahawks once again agree to a win-win deal for 1 year and $4 mil. Seattle adds a top 5 running back in the league when healthy with Kenneth Walker, and Penny gets probably one last chance to have a massive season and look for a 2024 payday.
ERFAs retained: Michael Jackson, Isaiah Mack, Myles Adams, Jon Rhattigan, Cody Thompson, and Godwin Igwebuike
Notables Not Returning
Poona Ford: Was a fun player, but not worth the price he was making and his fit is questionable.
Bruce Irvin: A fun player that was somewhat productive in 2022. I expect him to retire unless the Seahawks are faced with multiple injuries along the defensive front.
Drew Lock: We’ll never know how good or bad he would’ve been. He’ll likely sign as a stop-gap QB in Tampa Bay.
LJ Collier and Cody Barton: You’re welcome
After we have made decisions on all of our in-house moves, the Seahawks are looking at $31.58 million in space.
Seahawks should approach free agency differently
While history would hint at Seattle being quiet during free agency, I think there’s definitely a route to being aggressive, thanks to Geno’s cap hit. While some star defensive tackles like Javon Hargrave or Dre’Mont Jones would be great, the Seahawks will likely be outbid for their services, and I think they can get more bang for their buck. Here are the three moves to make when the legal tampering window for free agency opens on Monday morning.
Move 1: Seahawks should sign defensive lineman Zach Allen
If I’m running the free agency decisions, I’m hunting for ascending players, guys that will be good in 2023 but could be great over the length of a contract. Zach Allen fits the profile. The 26-year-old defensive lineman has been a well-kept secret on some bad Arizona teams, and he’s primed for a major breakout heading into free agency. In 13 games last season, Allen produced 5.5 sacks, 47 tackles, and 8 passes deflected.
That passes-deflected statistic ranked in the top five of all defensive tackles and could be extremely valuable for a Seahawks team that may be seeing a lot of Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy over the length of his contract. A versatile defender that can immediately bring a level of talent the interior defensive line hasn’t seen in years, Allen is a must-have to a team that basically just cleared the deck at the defensive tackle position.
Contract: 3 years, $30 million ($10 mil cap hit)
Move 2: Seahawks should sign edge rusher Arden Key
There is one name in this edge rusher class that really has me drooling, and that is Marcus Davenport. Before injuries ruined the 26-year-old’s season, Davenport was a monster in 2021. Injuries have always been a concern for Davenport, but he is the ultimate wildcard in free agency.
I expect him to sign a 1-year deal, trying to rebuild his value, and I would love to comPETE for his services. If the price is under $13 million for 1 year, I’m really interested, but I think he’ll make too much.
Missing out on Davenport could be a blessing in disguise, as we’re going to turn our attention to signing Arden Key. Speaking of looking for ascending players, pairing two versatile defensive line players in Zach Allen and Arden Key could be a massive improvement to this defense. A pass rusher from both the edge and interior, Key, and his 6’5″ and 240-lbs size and speed is exciting for a guy that is above average in the run defense.
In 2021 with Joey Bosa beside him, Key was able to rack up 6.5 sacks and 17 QB Hits. In 2022 with Jacksonville, Key was still able to have a strong season without an all-time level talent next to him, getting 4.5 sacks and 15 QB hits. Key will be 27, and may just be scratching the surface of something special. There are a lot of similarities to Uchenna Nwosu, and his contract should be very similar to what Nwosu signed last season.
Contract: 2 years, $19 million ($9.5 mil cap hit)
Move 3: Seahawks should re-sign Bobby Wagner
After the awkward “mutual parting of ways” with the Rams after signing a massive deal last season, it took about 5 seconds before Seahawk fans began to argue over whether Wagner will or should return to Seattle. While this type of move is very different from the previous ascending player deals, I think there’s an avenue where this could be a good deal for Seattle.
Wagner is a legend, and he put up some monster stats in 2022. The second-team All-Pro played in all 17 games, amassing 140 tackles, 6 sacks, and 2 interceptions. He hit the QB 10 times, which is a really good amount for a middle linebacker. He looked healthy and put up stats, but there’s still some concern with his game.
The Rams sucked, so he wasn’t always put in the spotlight, but this version of Wagner is not the same guy that could shut down the short passing game, or not get cooked in the middle of the field in pass coverage. He was too expensive for his level of production after 2020 and 2021, but at a much lower salary, and in a more specific role, Wagner could be great and exactly what Seattle needs.
It’s pretty clear Wagner is interested in returning, and Wagner could be a perfect early season stop gap to allow Jordyn Brooks time to get ready and not rush back. With Brooks back in the fold, Wagner can still be a pro bowl caliber linebacker in the rush defense, as well as getting after the quarterback. With the addition of Brooks, one or two linebackers drafted to learn from Wagner, and using Wagner in a hybrid role and not as your main linebacker, could be a really fun weapon for DC Clint Hurtt, while also adding major leadership to a Seahawks defense that desperately needs it.
It’ll be a beautiful sight to see him back in a Seahawks jersey, and a proper send-off having Wagner help Seattle take the next step.
Contract: 1 year, $8 million ($5 mil cap hit)
With the additions of Zach Allen, Arden Key, and Bobby Wagner, you can very easily see a defense that went 25th in scoring in 2022, that can reach the middle of the league in scoring defense. From a financial standpoint, the Seahawks are left with around $9.2 million in cap space, which is just enough needed for the draft. I do want to make a note that in this scenario, we still have the ability to restructure two players’ contracts to clear more cap space. Restructuring both safeties in Jamal Adams and Quandre could potentially add around $15 million or so in cap space. This is not really John Schneider’s style, but it is an option if they truly want to go all in in 2023.
Seahawks: Winning today and tomorrow at the NFL Draft
With free agency complete, we now turn our attention to the NFL Draft. Thanks to Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are in the most valuable draft position in years and have a chance to go from NFC West threat to Super Bowl contender.
Recently, Rob Staton of Seahawks Draft Blog dropped his post-combine mock draft and discussed how Anthony Richardson, despite the world-class performance he put on at the combine, is most likely to be available to Seattle at pick number 5. Consensus reports state Carolina will likely go with CJ Stroud at number 1. While I wouldn’t take him at number 2, I believe Houston will draft Bryce Young. Staton believes that Arizona and their new defensive-minded head coach will take Will Anderson Jr, the best defensive player in this draft.
If Arizona trades that pick to a QB-hungry team, Anderson Jr could potentially be there at pick 5 for Seattle, but I don’t think they will get that lucky. With Indianapolis GM Chris Ballard in desperate need to win right away due to the erratic Jim Irsay watching over him, Staton believes Indy will be more inclined to draft Levis, who may be the most pro-ready QB prospect of the bunch.
In this scenario, Staton believes the Seahawks will take Richardson, before looking to improve the trenches over the next few picks. I believe Staton is onto something, especially when you look at how easily Seattle could move on from Geno Smith’s contract. The Seahawks are going to take a quarterback, and the opportunity to have an Alex Smith/Pat Mahomes-type transition with Geno and Richardson. Taking his two-round mock, I am going to build on that with my own views and rankings, trying to complete the offseason with another dominant draft.
Seahawks first-round picks
Round 1 pick 5: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
I’ve been extremely high on Anthony Richardson all season. He’s consistently been my number 2 ranked QB in this class and has jumped to my number 4 overall prospect after his incredible combine. Guys his size should be as physically perfect as Richardson is. The fact he was the most impressive QB in the interviews, is just more reason to believe he can be a better version of prime Cam Newton, who happened to become an MVP and lead his team to multiple division titles and a Super Bowl appearance.
TRADE- Seahawks trade picks 20 and 237 to Cincinnati for picks 28 and 60
Round 1 Pick 28: Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
While I agree with Staton’s pick, I do believe pick 20 is a little bit of a no man’s land for the draft, and jumped at an opportunity to trade back, collecting another valuable top-60 pick in the process. Keion White was the lone bright spot for a terrible Georgia Tech football program. White looks the part, standing 6’5″ and 285 lbs with long 34” arms. A former tight end at Old Dominion, White converted to defense, transferred, and turned into a number 1 level pass rusher for GT.
He fits the type of edge rusher the Seahawks like, plays with a violent aggressiveness that this Seahawks defense has lacked, and was a Senior Bowl star, always a hint to potential Seahawks draft picks. A guy like Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah may be available and a better player right now, but over the next half-decade, I believe in White’s ceiling more.
Seahawks second-round picks
Round 2 Pick 37: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
The freakiest of the freaks, Mazi Smith may be the most physically imposing and gifted defensive tackle the Seahawks have had at that position in years. A man that’s 6’3″ and weighs 327 pounds should not move and be as athletic as Smith. Smith is not a sack guy, but he will eat up blocks and double teams in the run game, creating opportunities for the defense to improve their rush defense significantly.
Round 2 Pick 57: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
Seattle finished 9th in scoring in 2022, and with a few offensive draft picks, the Seahawks can push for a top 5 scoring offense, and Luke Musgrave could be a massive weapon for Geno Smith. Musgrave is one of the “core four” tight ends in this draft, a truly special class for the position. The Seahawks, who already have Will Dissly and Noah Fant under contract for 2023, bring in a unique weapon from Oregon State in Musgrave. At 6’6″ and 249 lbs, Musgrave brings massive size and near-wide receiver speed to the tight end position.
The biggest knock on Musgrave is more of a lack of time on the field than anything. Musgrave played in only two games in 2022 before a knee injury ended his season. In those two games, however, Musgrave was a beast with 11 receptions, 169 yards, and a touchdown. When healthy, it is clear to see a tight end that is a good enough blocker, but has Jimmy Graham-type potential as a receiver, but with better speed.
Musgrave has measurables that are eerily similar to Kansas City’s Travis Kelce, and he could be huge for either Geno Smith or helping a young Anthony Richardson as a safety blanket.
Round 2 Pick 60: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
To finish out Day Two of the NFL draft for the Seahawks, we selected Mr. Reliable Jack Campbell to reunite with his Hawkeye brother Van Ness.
While there are other linebackers that may be more flashy or can get a bunch of sacks, it’ll be hard to find a more dependable middle linebacker in this class than Captain Jack. A consensus All-American, Campbell combined for 265 tackles in his final two seasons, while grading out as one of the best pass coverage linebackers in all of college football.
Campbell reads holes and finishes better than Cody Barton ever could and appears to be better in pass coverage than Brooks showed last year. In 2023, Campbell could develop and learn from one of the greatest to ever do it in Bobby Wagner, while also taking a lot of pressure off of both Wagner and Brooks. With this pick going forward for the next few years, the middle linebacker spot should go to Campbell, with an eventually healthy Brooks sliding over.
TRADE- Seahawks trade picks 83 and 154 to New York Giants for picks 89 and 128
Round 3 Pick 89- Olusegun Oluwatimi, Center, Michigan
Oluwatimi was the best center in the ACC when he was at Virginia and then transferred to Michigan, only to become the best center in college football, winning both the Outland and Rimington awards. In the regular season, where Michigan went 13-0, Oluwatimi allowed 0 sacks on 360 pass attempts. This dude is getting slept on, he’s my #1 center in the draft.
Round 4 Pick 123- Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston
If I told you the Seahawks selected a wide receiver who in the past two seasons had nearly 200 receptions, 2,700 yards, and 29 touchdowns, you’d be stoked with that 1st round pick. In Round 5, the Seahawks drafted such a talent in Nathaniel “Tank” Dell.
Dell has been arguably the best slot receiver and punt/kick returner for the Houston Cougars for the past two seasons. Why is he not drafted higher? Cause he’s only 5’10” and 155 pounds. It’s a risk-taking such a diminutive player, but Dell has the speed and route running to be both a solid 4th wide receiver deep threat, as well as a return star.
Round 4 Pick 128- Mike Morris, DL, Michigan
The Seahawks selected a big defensive end in the first round with Lukas Van Ness, and they nab another to really need up their 3-4 defense with Michigan’s Mike Morris. Morris had a fantastic season for Michigan, recording 7.5 sacks in 12 games for the Wolverines, and is a great DE rotational player for Boye Mafe.
Round 5 Pick 151- Corey Trice, CB, Purdue
It was around this part of the draft last year that the Seahawks selected a physical freak at cornerback, and struck gold in Tariq Woolen. Does lightning strike twice with Seattle drafting the 6-3 206 lbs corner from Purdue? He did not have the greatest combine, but this is the type of player that could potentially be a star under Pete Carroll’s tutelage after a couple of seasons.
Round 6 Pick 198- Deuce Vaughn, Running Back, Kansas State
A small, but mighty running back that helped carry Kansas State to a Big 12 Championship? No, the Seahawks aren’t drafting Darren Sproles, but we are going to draft his clone in KSU’s Deuce Vaughn. The heart of KSU’s program, Vaughn produced nearly 3,800 total yards and 34 total touchdowns over the past two seasons. Yes, he’s 5-6, but I really think he can be an upgrade over Travis Homer in the 3rd down game, as a receiving back, and potentially some special teams return opportunities.
A review of the Seahawks offseason plan
If you’re still with me on this journey, well done! The Geno Smith contract told me two major keys when building this offseason plan. First, the Seahawks want to make a legitimate run in 2023. We’ve seen jumps like this before from worse teams. The extra cap space and extra draft picks allowed me the opportunity to try and go for it, while still keeping an eye on tomorrow.
The second key is that the Seahawks will only roll with Geno Smith for as long as he’s good. The way that whole contract is set up, and the way Pete and John have commented on the gift of the Denver Broncos’ number 5 overall pick. That pick is viewed by them as a luxury, and while many want more defensive help, I think Seattle will take a QB there.
I have my doubts that Anthony Richardson makes it to pick 5, but I can still see this same exact scenario playing out, but with Will Levis as the selection. Schneider will finally get to draft a QB that fits his preferences and will be able to build around him after this Geno and Pete era has run its course.
Offensive additions review
QB- Anthony Richardson
RB- (Resigned) Rashaad Penny, Deuce Vaughn
TE- Luke Musgrave
WR- (Resigned) Marquise Goodwin, Nathaniel Dell
C- Olusegun Oluwatimi
Defensive additions review
D-Line- Zach Allen, Arden Key, Keion White, Mazi Smith, Mike Morris
LB- Bobby Wagner, Jack Campbell
DB- (2nd Round Tender) Ryan Neal, Corey Trice
You may love or hate this offseason plan, but I really believe we have put together a plan that can get Seattle into that NFC championship bubble, while also potentially setting up the Seahawks for another decade of success in the eventual Anthony Richardson era. We improved an offense that was already really good, and we may have created a top 12-15 defense out of a 25th-ranked group in 2022. Whether it is Geno or AR, the future is bright in the Pacific Northwest.