Assessing the Seahawks' playoff chances at the bye week

I want to begin today with a disclaimer. I could have taken Probability and Statistics my freshman year in college. I did not. I took Popular Culture in Victorian England instead. Therefore, when I offer my analysis of the likelihood of the Seattle Seahawks making it into the 2024 NFL playoffs, please understand that I am not doing any pattern theory or regression analysis. I’m just looking at where all the teams with a shot at the playoffs stand at the midpoint, and then at the schedules each has. Then, I’ll do some rudimentary analysis. You know, like they used to do in Victorian England.

As they enter their bye week, Seattle stands at 4-5 and in last place in the NFC West. Fortunately, the division is bunched up, so that the Hawks are just one game out of first, and they still have four games left against their division rivals. In other words, they still have a large measure of control over their destiny.

Winning the division is one of the two paths Mike Macdonald’s crew has to the post-season. The other is as a wild card entry. As you probably know, in the NFC, four division winners and three wild cards – the teams with the next three best records in the conference – will advance. As of today, Seattle’s most likely way into meaningful games come January is as a division winner. The wild card path appears to be much more difficult.

What are the chances the Seahawks can still make the playoffs in 2024?

More on that in a moment. First, let’s examine Seattle’s chance to go from worst to first in the NFC West during the second half of the season.

Arizona is the surprise leader in the NFC West at the midpoint of the season. They currently sit at 5-4, with a bye week scheduled for week 11. They are the last team in the West to have a bye, which should be an advantage for Kyler Murray and company.

More importantly, thanks to their last place finish in 2023, they have an absurdly easy schedule in the second half of this season. Out of their eight remaining games, they only play one against a team with a winning record. That comes in Week 13 when they take on the 6-2 Minnesota Vikings.

Otherwise, they have games against struggling teams like the New York Jets, The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers. Their other four games come against the NFC West, including two against the Seahawks.

The Rams and the 49ers are both 4-4, just a half game behind the Cards. Obviously, either could make a move. After a slow start, LA seems to be gaining momentum. And of course, San Fran will be getting Christian McCaffrey back on the field at some point. Like the Cardinals, the Rams should benefit from a fairly easy schedule, with games against Miami, New England, New Orleans, and the Jets (combined record 9-26) still on tap. Even allowing for a much-improved Dolphins team, Sean McVay’s squad should get to at least nine wins, with a good chance of going higher.

San Francisco has a difficult schedule in the second half, with three games against the tough NFC North, along with several others against 2023 playoff teams. We have all seen the 49ers go on big runs in the past, but they have not yet clicked in 2024, so no one should assume they can simply flip a switch with McCaffrey back on the field and start dominating.

Unfortunately, Seattle has the most difficult remaining schedule in the division. Like San Fran, they must face three quality NFC North teams and play their division rivals four more times. Do I need to remind you that the Hawks are currently 0-2 against the division this year? I didn’t think so.

But here’s the silver lining. If Mike Macdonald can use the bye week to right his ship – to figure out how to get improved line play on both lines, and to broker an on-field peace between his star QB and his star WR – Seattle can make its own luck. They are a game behind the Cardinals, but play them twice in the span of three weeks on either side of Thanksgiving. Those games will largely determine whether Seattle has a shot at the division title.

The Seahawks most likely would need to sweep the Cardinals to both build up their own win total and suppress Arizona’s. Then, they would need wins over the Jets, the Bears, and the Rams. That would get them to 9-7. Unless either San Fran or LA goes on a tear, that might be just enough in the very balanced division.

If they fail to win the NFC West, the Hawks have very little chance of making the playoffs. Three other teams – Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Green Bay – are at least two games clear of Seattle right now. Four others – Chicago, Tampa Bay, and the two teams tied for second in the West – are even or slightly ahead.

The team tied with the Seahawks at 4-5, Tampa Bay, has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, with five contests against teams that are currently 2-7. It is almost impossible to imagine anyone in the NFC this year securing a wild card spot with fewer than ten wins.

Of course, Macdonald has to worry about simply getting his men to play quality football before he can start thinking about the playoffs. If he can, all hope is not yet lost. Coming out of the bye, the Seahawks get San Francisco and Arizona. They must win at least one of those games to keep their admittedly slim chances alive. Losing both games almost certainly means they will enter December looking to the 2025 season, and not to the 2024 playoffs. Should that happen, I offer these words of consolation…

“Oh, don’t the days seem lank and long – When all goes right and nothing goes wrong?” (courtesy of W. S. Gilbert, Victorian Era librettist par excellence.)

More Seahawks news and analysis: