I thought the Seattle Seahawks had a very good chance of defeating the Arizona Cardinals in the first of the two rapid-fire meetings last Sunday. I got the game script dead wrong, but at least I did correctly predict that tight end Trey McBride would cause Seattle’s defense far more headaches than lead running back James Conner. Anyway, a win is a win and I’ll take the McBride thing while flushing the prediction of a high-scoring shootout that failed to materialize.
This week, I feel a lot better about my predictions anyway. The Seahawks are finally playing the style of football that many expected when Mike Macdonald took over as head coach. Personnel and scheme changes on defense have allowed Seattle to control the pace of recent games. The playmakers on offense have taken advantage and produced when needed.
Their opponent this week, the New York Jets, has been a virtual photo negative. Whereas Macdonald used the bye week to steady his team, the Jets have bounced along from distraction to catastrophe and back again. They fired their coach early. They fired their GM late. They also tried to change personnel and scheme, and have been rewarded by losing seven of their last eight games. They are coming off their own bye and in desperate need of a strong performance to avert a complete implosion.
Bold predictions for Week 13 when the Seattle Seahawks play the New York Jets
As with everything the Jets have touched this season, I think they will fail.
The Jets are festering. The locker room is not healthy. The owner is not patient. They still have plenty of talent on both offense and defense, but once a boulder begins rolling downhill, it is hard to slow it down. I do not think the Seahawks will blow out New York on Sunday, but I do think they will win, and it will not exactly be a nail-biter.
More specifically, here are three things that may not be statistically likely, but which I think will happen nonetheless.
A.J. Barner goes off
I predicted this once before and it did not happen. But the dominoes are lined up much better this week. So far in his rookie season, Barner’s biggest reception has gone for 20 yards. In his best game, he accounted for 34 receiving yards. He has scored one touchdown. That has not been a poor performance by any means.
Barner was a fourth-round pick who was more lauded for his strength and blocking than for his dynamic playmaking. He is an evolving pass catcher. I think we will see a nice step in that evolution on Sunday. Barner should go over fifty yards on the day and establish a new long-catch number of 25 yards or more. He may grab his second touchdown, though I think that is a bit iffier.
The Jets have defensive talent, especially on the perimeter. Sauce Garnder appears to be in a funk but along with fellow cornerback D.J. Reed, he should limit DK Metcalf’s downfield plays. Geno Smith is likely to once again target his new favorite, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, all day, but Barner should get extra targets as well. The Jets safeties are in a state of confusion. Tony Adams, their steadiest player in the deep end, was inexplicably benched recently in favor of Jalen Mills.
Neither Mills nor fellow safety Chuck Clark has been especially good in coverage this season, so it should open things up for backs, slot receivers, and tight ends. Of even more concern for the Jets, there are now reports that Adams' benching came at the behest of owner Woody Johnson. Any fan who has lived through meddlesome ownership debacles knows this will come to no good. The Jets defense is already struggling after Johnson chose to fire head coach Robert Saleh after just five games. Now, their safety room is in obvious disarray and AJ Barner should benefit.
The Hawks snare three turnovers and Spoon gets one of them
There was a time when Aaron Rodgers did not throw interceptions. That time is no more. For an eleven-year period, from 2011 to 2021, Rodgers averaged 5.5 interceptions per season. He has already thrown seven this year. He hit double figures in picks in 2022 and figures to do it again this year. His numbers are not bad when compared to the entire league, but they show a significant regression for him. It appears he may have corrected this issue. He has not thrown an interception in four straight games, which is much more reminiscent of the Aaron Rodgers of old.
But I am not convinced. Seattle’s defense is playing so much better since the bye. They are stopping the run. They are limiting big plays. And they are beginning to make big plays themselves. Many observers of Mike Macdonald’s defense in Baltimore thought it might take a while for Seahawk defenders to pick up all the nuances. And that applies to their best defender, Devon Witherspoon, more than to any other player.
Witherspoon is asked to do a lot and it appears he is growing into the role quite nicely. I think Hawks’ pass rushers will harass the immobile Rodgers all day and he will throw a couple of picks – one to Spoon. There will also be at least one Breece Hall fumble. I worry the Hawks may cough up the ball a few times as well, so these turnovers will be vital.
Aaron Rodgers gets benched
It might be explained away as a precaution due to an injury, but I think this will go down as the game in which the Jets formally pulled the plug on the disastrous Aaron Rodgers experiment. If it does come to pass, it will be national news for several days and news in New York for several more weeks. I have often written that Rodgers – along with Sonny Jurgensen and Dan Marino – is one of the three best pure passers I have ever seen in person. But his time is past. He will not finish the game against Seattle.
There was a period early in his career when common wisdom suggested Aaron Rodgers was the victim of personality disputes between various members of his family and various women whom he dated. Many years later, a reassessment is underway which wonders if the only problematic personality was Rodgers himself. Outsiders will never completely understand what goes on inside an NFL locker room, but it is hard to dispute that Rodgers has been a destructive force since he arrived in New York.
He has disparaged teammates and coaches in public. His most talented pass catcher, Garrett Wilson, has largely regressed with Rodgers as his QB. Though it has been denied up and down, it is almost impossible to believe that the QB was not behind the sacking of Saleh, which has sent the franchise into a tailspin. Rodgers skipped the Jets mandatory minicamp this offseason so that he could travel to Egypt. Then, he lambasted his new receiver Mike Williams for not running proper routes in games.
Do you think it ever once entered the QB’s mind that had he postponed Egypt and been at his job, maybe the chemistry with his new receiver would have been better? That is just one example of the way in which Aaron Rodgers has not exactly won the love and admiration of his teammates. I don’t think many will raise an objection if journeyman Tyrod Taylor finishes out this week’s game.
These predictions are predicated on a comfortable win for Seattle. It's not easy, perhaps, but not a game that comes down to the final drive either. I do have a slight concern that the Hawks may be looking past this game to the Cardinals’ rematch the following week, in which case, all bets are off. Though Rodgers and the rest of the Jets may be down, they are not exactly dead in the water. Not yet. But if they play a sound game, the Hawks will help them get there.