With three weeks to go in the regular season, nine NFC teams have a realistic shot to claim one of the seven playoff spots up for grabs. This does not mean all the other teams have been mathematically eliminated. It just means that I wouldn’t invest heavily in their chances. Of the nine, only two have a direct line to the top seed and first-round bye – the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.
This is a very fluid situation, with an awful lot of moving parts. For instance, I am not currently counting the Dallas Cowboys among those nine teams. However, if the Philadelphia Eagles were to lose to the Washington Commanders this weekend and Dallas beats the Chargers, I would add the Cowboys back into the mix. But for now, I’m sticking with the following nine:
Eagles, Bears, Packers, Lions, Buccaneers, Panthers, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers. Let’s take a quick look at each club’s path to a playoff spot, with particular emphasis on what these final three games mean to the Seahawks.
A lot of playoff scenarios could unfold for the Seattle Seahawks over the final three weeks
Let’s do the easiest ones first. The three wild card teams are going to come from the NFC North and the NFC West. It is likely that the West produces two and the North one, though there is a slight chance that could flip.
That means that the two other divisions get just one team into the postseason.
The NFC South will come down to a showdown between Carolina and Tampa Bay. They are currently tied at 7-7, and play each other twice over the final three weeks. If they split those games, then Seattle could figure into this scenario in a major way because, in between its two games against the Bucs, Carolina hosts the Seahawks.
Whoever comes out of the South is likely to be the number 4 seed in the NFC.
The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles will probably be the third seed, though they could sneak up to number two. They just have to win one of their remaining games to knock Dallas out.
After that, it gets fun. Chicago has a half-game lead on Green Bay and a two-game lead on the Lions. They play both in the final weeks, as well as a highly motivated San Francisco team. The Bears’ game against the Packers this weekend should be epic. Should the Bears falter over the next two weeks, then their Week 18 contest with the Lions also becomes, you guessed it … even more epic.
Before watching Micah Parsons tear his ACL last week, I would have made the Packers the favorite to take the North, despite trailing the Bears by a half-game. Now, everything is in turmoil. If Green Bay can get by Chicago this week, they have the underachieving Ravens and Vikings to close out the season.
As of now, I think whoever wins the division – and I would still pick the Packers by a nose – gets the number two seed, while the other falls to six or seven.
Detroit has six losses. They need to win out, and they need some help from other teams. Still, I think both those scenarios could play out, allowing the Lions to sneak into the final seed.
As for the West, part of it is easy. If either the Rams or the Seahawks win out, they claim the division and the number one seed. The Rams have the easiest route. Even if they lose to Seattle, they are likely to finish 13-4. Seattle could beat the Rams on Thursday, but still miss out on the division title if they fall to San Francisco in the final game.
The numbers suggest that Seattle is looking at the number five seed, and possibly even worse if they lose to San Francisco.
As for the 49ers, they probably will need to beat either Chicago or Seattle in the final two weeks to lock up a Wild Card spot. But they still have an outside chance at the division title and an outside chance of missing the playoffs altogether. As of right now, I project them to finish with the number six seed.
For the Seahawks, the task is difficult, but also easy to understand. Win out and get a first-round bye. Lose out and risk missing the playoffs altogether, though even if they were to lose all three of their remaining games, they would still have a pretty good chance of creeping in as the last seed.
Players can’t really look ahead, but fans can. First task, take care of the Rams at home on Thursday and move into first place in the division. Next, guard against a letdown in the ten days before an East Coast trip to battle the suddenly tough Carolina Panthers. Finally, avenge the opening day loss by beating San Fran down in the Bay Area.
It’s a difficult path, but I doubt Mike Macdonald and his men are all that worried. The Hawks are relatively healthy, boast a fantastic defense, and dynamic special teams. If the offense regains its form, Seattle can certainly complete this final three-game gauntlet and go into the playoffs on a high note.
And if they don’t? It barely matters. This team has proven it can win on the road, and once you’re in the postseason, anything can happen.