The Seattle Seahawks are riding momentum into a winnable matchup against the winless New Orleans Saints this week. Most analysts are going to pick Seattle to win this game, as they rightfully should.
Of course, the "any given Sunday" cliche didn’t spring up out of nowhere. The Saints employ 53 professional football players, too, and it may come as a bit of a surprise that New Orleans is playing a bit better than their record would indicate.
One area where New Orleans is nearly on par with Seattle is in preventing explosive plays. The NFL’s lifeblood is explosive plays of 15 or more yards. Point to the team that is creating the most explosive plays while allowing the fewest, and you’ll find a very successful team. But we’re early into the season, so let’s put some context on the numbers ahead of the Week 3 clash this Sunday afternoon.
Why the explosive play battle tilts toward the Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans, defensively, isn’t just on par with Seattle’s defense in preventing explosive plays; they’re nearly on par with Green Bay. According to data shared by ESPN NFL data analyst Sam Hoppen, the Packers have given up the fewest percentage of explosive plays through the first two weeks of the season at 3.7%. The Saints are the next best team at 4.5%, then the Seahawks at 5.9%.
Of course, the Saints and Seahawks defense won’t be on the field against one another, so how do the offenses shake up? Advantage Seattle. The Seahawks have hit an explosive play on 14.7% of their offensive plays, which is also good for third in the NFL. The Saints, however, check in at No. 29 in the NFL with just 5.6% of their offensive plays resulting in explosive yardage.
First of all, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks are one of four teams, which does not include New Orleans, that have yet to allow an explosive run against their defense.
While New Orleans doesn’t have many explosive plays from their offense, those that they do have come through the run game, even at just 1.4%. The passing game is at a better rate, 4.2%, but that ranks 31st in the NFL compared to 24th for the run rate.
Now, let’s also contextualize New Orleans’ opponents. The Saints have faced the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers so far this season. Arizona’s defense ranks sixth in these metrics, while its offense ranks just 25th.
Of course, the 49ers’ offense was without key pieces such as quarterback Brock Purdy in Week 2 against the Saints, but nonetheless, the 49ers rank 29th offensively and 10th defensively.
That’s a lot of numbers, even more numbers than I’m comfortable with. Regardless, however, they point toward New Orleans’ success at preventing explosive plays as being somewhat of a facade, while their offense is properly ranked.
Arizona’s offense isn’t particularly explosive, and San Francisco’s is a false positive because of injuries on the road. The only consistent variable for the Saints is that their offense struggled to produce explosive plays against above-average defenses.
And now they’re going to face one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks have prevented explosive plays against two rather average offenses, yes. But, San Francisco was closer to full health, and Pittsburgh is middle of the road thanks solely to its passing game.
Nonetheless, the Seahawks’ strengths in rushing the passer and creating their own explosive plays point to an extreme advantage that should prove fruitful on the scoreboard this week against the Saints.