I’m going to give you three sets of quarterback stats and I want you to tell me (or tell yourself, I imagine) which you would choose as your signal caller heading into 2025. All are roughly the same age – what we might consider young veterans.
- QB1 completes 60 percent of his passes. He has a touchdown percentage of 3.4 and an interception percentage of 3.1. His passer rating is 79.
- QB2 has a 61 percent completion percentage with a touchdown rate of 4.2 and an interception rate of 3.1, His passer rating is 84.
- QB3 hits on 66 percent of his throws. He has a touchdown rate of 3.4 and an interception rate of 2.8. His passer rating stands at 85.
Which one would Seattle Seahawks fans want? Remember your answer. We’ll be coming back to it shortly.
Four free agent quarterbacks the Seattle Seahawks could sign to replace Geno Smith
Of all the many roster decisions confronting general manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald this offseason, none looms larger than how to address the quarterback situation. Geno Smith turns 35 next season and has one more year remaining on his contract.
He remains a productive QB and does not carry a crippling cap number, but those In power may still decide it is time to change course and search for a younger, cheaper option who might develop into an equally good starter.
Is there such a player available? Let’s look at four quarterbacks scheduled to be free agents this offseason and consider whether any would be a good gamble should Seattle decide to move on from Smith.
Drew Lock – New York Giants
OK, I can hear the groans – or outright laughter – coming from Seahawks fans already. After all, Lock is the quarterback Geno beat out to succeed Russell Wilson back in 2022. And that contest wasn’t especially close. I admit that Lock is on this list because of one game. It happens to be the last one he played, a 45-33 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. Lock was so good in that game that it forces at least a cursory look at the former second-round pick.
Lock has been a spot starter throughout his career. He has never been especially productive. His one season as a full-time starter was mediocre at best. That was in Denver back in 2020, his second year in the league. Since then, he has bounced around as a backup.
He got the chance to start this season when Tommy DeVito flamed out after the Giants parted ways with Daniel Jones. And through three games, Lock basically did what he had always done. Actually, he was somewhat worse, taking more sacks and not producing much of anything downfield. That might be partially attributable to New York’s wretched overall offense.
But then, against the Colts, Lock looked reborn. He completed almost 75 percent of his passes. Four touchdowns in just 23 attempts. More than 300 yards in the air for a yards-per-attempt of a breathtaking 13.4. No sacks. No picks. He even ran for a touchdown.
A fluke? Probably. I am not advocating Seattle bring in Lock as their presumptive starter. But if Macdonald wants to hold open auditions amongst several potential players, maybe Drew Lock gets another shot to make his mark in the northwest.
Mac Jones – Jacksonville Jaguars
I thought Jones’ draft position – he went number 15 in the first round to New England in 2021 was hugely overinflated. He played in a perfect college situation at Alabama surrounded by professional-caliber talent, and he operated the offense very well. But I thought he had the physical tools of a third-round pick. Then, he shocked me by having a very good rookie season with a mediocre Patriot offense.
The honeymoon didn’t last. Jones regressed and was eventually sent packing. This season, he served as Trevor Lawrence’s backup in Jacksonville. When Lawrence went to IR, Jones took over as the starter. His performance has been average. But as with Drew Lock, at least part of that is due to the level of talent around him.
Jones has played as well as – perhaps slightly better than – Lawrence had been playing with this offense. He remains an accurate passer who generally makes good reads and doesn’t take a lot of sacks despite being under pressure often.
Mac Jones will never have the arm or the mobility to remind fans of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but in the right offense, he could be a steadying presence. Jones is essentially in the same position as Drew Lock, only a bit further along. Seattle cannot bring him in and expect him to be a major upgrade. But he could also figure into a QB battle, and could end up surprising people – myself included.
Marcus Mariota – Washington Commanders
At 31, Marcus Mariota is the oldest quarterback on this list. At this point in his career, he is primarily seen as a veteran backup. In fact, Mariota has only started 13 NFL games since 2020 – all for the Atlanta Falcons in 2022. He went 5-8 in those starts. So why would Seattle even consider replacing a more proven veteran like Geno Smith with Mariota?
Because Mariota is in almost the exact same position Geno was in when he took over as starter in 2022. Geno was also viewed as a failed starting prospect, destined to be the veteran backup. Mariota is actually a few years younger and, early in his career, had much better success than Geno experienced in his first several seasons.
When he was pressed into service against Carolina earlier this year, Mariota ran Washington’s offense to perfection. Of course, you could push back by saying that Carolina’s defense isn’t especially good and that the Commanders have been playing much better this season. But isn’t that true of most quarterbacks?
Very few have the ability to elevate mediocre teammates so that they can compete against quality defenses. They need to be in the right situation. At the very least, fans can expect Seattle to have a decent group of receivers next season and a quality running back. They should take steps to improve the offensive line. Mariota’s mobility would be an asset if the line remains a work in progress, much like Geno’s has been this season, and he can run the offense and distribute the ball fairly well.
We have seen this happen to veteran quarterbacks a lot in recent years. Baker Mayfield was washed up in Cleveland. He took Tampa to the playoffs and was a Pro Bowler last year. Geno went from never-was to two-time Pro Bowler as well. Mariota could be primed to be the next quarterback to make that leap.
Justin Fields – Pittsburgh Steelers
OK – remember that little 3-QB exercise from the beginning of this little discussion? Who did you choose? Maybe you liked the accuracy of QB3. Those stats belonged to Mac Jones. Maybe you preferred the better touchdown percentage of QB2. That was the former Bears’ starter Justin Fields.
I did not include rushing stats for the three quarterbacks, but suffice it to say that had I done so, QB2 – Fields – almost certainly would have been your pick. Neither QB1 nor QB3 are good runners. Fields is among the best-running QBs in the league.
So what about QB1 – who had no stats as good as Fields or Jones? That was Sam Darnold prior to the 2024 season. Take a minute to consider that. Because if you are laughing off the prospect of Jones or Fields – or even Drew Lock – please remember that prior to this season Darnold was a flat-out bust. Almost nobody thought Sam Darnold could play at a high level in the NFL.
Now, with experience, quality coaching, and playmaking teammates, Darnold has improved his completion percentage from 60 to almost 70 percent. He has doubled his touchdown percentage while dropping his interception percentage noticeably. He is leading one of the best offenses in football into the playoffs.
Justin Fields struggled with subpar coaching and modest offensive weaponry in Chicago. He still needs a lot of work on his accuracy and needs to develop the ability to throw first and run only when necessary. But he has the tools to be a very good NFL quarterback. If he lands in the right spot, he could be next year’s Sam Darnold.
For the record, I don’t think Drew Lock is really worth the dice roll, even if he is one of several prospects brought to Seattle. And I don’t think Mac Jones is a long-term answer. Odds are he’s not even much of a short-term answer. I think Mariota could be a surprisingly effective patch for several years while a young quarterback is developed, and I think Fields is a potential steal. I realize that all of them are gambles, and the fact is, Geno Smith is not. You know what you will get from him at this point.
So the question you have to ask yourself is, “Do I feel lucky?” No – sorry – that’s a different question. The question here is whether the Seahawks are better off with the known quantity of Geno Smith or taking a chance on someone who might become next year’s Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. Or the 2022 version of Geno Smith. Think back – was his emergence in 2022 more likely than a strong 2025 from either Mariota or Fields?