The Seattle Seahawks made several high-risk, high-reward moves this offseason. I mean, I think moving on from your starting QB and two of your top three wide receivers is risky, right? I'd say signing a 33-year-old defensive end coming off a four-game season is risky, too. Or is it?
By Seahawks, I mean general manager John Schneider, of course. We're in our second season of Schneider being in total control of Seattle's roster. The jury is still out on his last two drafts, but there's no doubt that he's pulled off some excellent drafts in the past.
What I'm interested in today is his record with free agents. Yeah, the Seahawks have made some questionable decisions when it comes to free agents. Time for my annual mea culpa: I thought bringing in Eddie Lacy was a good idea. Maybe I was thinking like a restaurateur. Okay, time to talk about another big swing at a free agent this year.
Seahawks take a big swing with edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence
If Seattle had stolen DeMarcus Lawrence from Dallas in 2018 when his rookie contract expired, there would be zero doubt that this was one of John Schneider's best signings ever. The Cowboys' defensive end was coming off a 14.5-sack Pro Bowl season. Not even Jerry Jones is stupid enough to let a player like that go.
After he was franchise-tagged over the next three seasons, Dallas renegotiated with Lawrence. The next window for the Seahawks to swoop in was after the 2021 season. The Boys re-signed him, but there would have been some hesitation to go after him anyway.
Lawrence missed 10 games that year and would be 30 years old in 2022. It's important to note that he did return for the last six games of 2021, so there was little concern about his health going forward.
But Lawrence is coming off another injury-shortened season, this time one that ended his year after just four games. Add that he suffered a Lisfranc injury and is 33 years old, and there's reasonable cause for concern about his health. While it's not common, that type of foot injury can have long-term effects. I'm not a doctor, but the Cleveland Clinic has more than a few on staff, so I trust them.
There is no denying that the Seahawks' new EDGE is an absolute force when he's on the field. He may very well have been on his way to his best season ever last year. Remember, he only played four games. Yet he racked up three sacks, five quarterback hits, and 10 total pressures.
Over a full season, that's 12 sacks, 20 QB hits, and 40 pressures. Those would be career highs in hits and pressures, and third in sacks.
So the only real question is, how likely is it that he'll be able to maintain his performance coming back from the injury? Let's compare Lawrence to two similar players. Well, as similar as you can find. Our two comps are Trey Flowers and Brandon Graham. They're near-perfect matches physically and are close in performance as well. More to the point, they both missed serious time with injuries.
After his rookie season, Flowers appeared in 60 of a possible 64 games. In 2020, he missed nine games with a broken forearm. He also had shoulder injuries, which repeated in 2021, along with knee injuries. He missed 10 games that year. He joined the Dolphins in 2022, but a foot injury put him back on the shelf. He only played four games in Miami before calling it quits in the league.
We get a much happier picture from Brandon Graham. The Eagles' DE missed 13 games in his sophomore season, but only missed one contest over the next nine years. His luck ran out in 2021, as a torn Achilles tendon benched him for the season in Week 2.
Here's the good part. He played in all 17 games in 2022 and 2023. An injured triceps in 2024 caused him to miss six games, but he was able to return for their Super Bowl win.
So, we have one instance of a very bad prognosis - Flowers - and an excellent example with Graham. It's worth noting that Flowers battled several injuries during his career, often at the same time. Lawrence is coming back from one, even though it can be one of the more tricky rehabs.
So, what can we expect from Seattle's splashy free agent signing? As with Cooper Kupp, it would be wise to temper our expectations. At this point, we can't be sure what we'll get from Uchenna Nwosu. But Boye Mafe and Derick Hall are solid players, and they're hardly the only potential competition.
Lawrence will definitely get the start, and deservedly so. If Seattle gets a dozen starts from him with six sacks and 20+ pressures, it's a great signing.
The Seahawks have insured themselves from a long-term commitment, as he can be released after this season with a relatively painless $4.67 million dead cap hit. Much like the deal Seattle inked with Cooper Kupp, the potential reward outweighs the risk for the Seahawks.