The Seattle Seahawks have had the advantage in free agency in one particular aspect: The state of Washington has no income tax. That is likely about to change, and in a very negative way for the team's future. Potentially.
The issue is that the state is on the verge of passing a 9.9 percent tax on incomes of more than $1 million beginning on January 1, 2028. That won't affect most people, of course. It will affect almost all of the players for the Seahawks in two years.
This also isn't about millionaires getting taxed. One can view that however they want, of course. It is a politico-economic situation that we won't dive into here, at least as far as the pros and cons of the morality of it all.
Seattle Seahawks are likely about to lose some of their bargaining power in free agency
That said, general manager John Schneider will no longer be able to sell to free agents the idea of coming to the Pacific Northwest and not having to give a portion of their income to taxes. The Seahawks are one of only eight teams that don't have a home in a state that has its own tax. At least, for now.
Schneider, speaking on Seattle Sports 710 AM, addressed the future issue simply, "There were a bunch of agents texting me the other day like, 'Hey, can't use that anymore, buddy,'...It's always been a huge attraction, especially competing with the California teams. It's been a big deal for us. So, it's going to sting, from a recruiting standpoint and what that looks like. It's going to sting, no question about it."
Before anyone panics, there are several things to consider. One is that three-quarters of the league already have been dealing with a state income tax, and that hasn't really affected their roster. Players want to get paid, and Seattle isn't likely to have to pay most players more to be Seahawks.
Moreover, teams can clearly factor into their negotiation strategies how a player, even if they are paying a state income tax, will be able to make as much as they would anywhere else. 10 percent is a lot, but the Seahawks are also smart when it comes to cap space and will likely have plenty of it.
The main issue might come in terms of outbidding for extremely high-end, and highly-paid, free agents. The positive is that Schneider rarely chases those types of players anywhere. The Seahawks aren't about the pieces, but the whole, and the culture matters. The team should continue to win as long as John Schneider is in charge.
The potential tax, which passed the legislature and Governor Bob Ferguson has said he will sign, would go into effect in 2028, which means the Seahawks might be a little more aggressive in working out extensions with players on their rookie deals to make sure they don't go to a team without a state income tax.
This includes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Ultimately, however, most players have to deal with state income taxes already, and Seattle isn't consistently signing expensive free agents from other teams. The most likely outcome is business as usual for the Seahawks.