The Seattle Seahawks will absolutely dominate the New England Patriots in the 60th Super Bowl. For one thing, the Seahawks are just that good. For another, the Patriots, not so much. Okay, let me clarify a few things. I'm not saying New England isn't good; just that they're not on the level of Seattle.
So, let me toss the Pats a few bones. Bad teams don't have 14-3 records, no matter how easy their schedule is. Oh, we'll get to that easy schedule, don't worry. Bad teams don't make it to the Super Bowl, either. Teams that were mediocre and then got hot have managed it, sure.
Both the 2008 Cardinals and the 2011 Giants went 9-7 in the regular season, then got hot in the playoffs. The Giants actually won, beating the...hmmm... it was some overhyped AFC team from the northeast...
The Patriots look good on paper, and the Seattle Seahawks will toss them in the shredder
Among the good news for the Patriots is that quarterback Drake Maye is really, really good. Stefon Diggs and Rhamondre Stevenson are excellent at wide receiver and running back. They have a strong pair of safeties in Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson, and an excellent linebacker in Robert Spillane. All three of their corners are solid as well. Wow, look like the Seahawks are in trouble, right?
Not so fast. The Patriots' defense feasted on awful teams, with seven games won by less than a touchdown. Their three losses were by a total of 18 points. The closest loss was by four points. Of their 14 wins, the Patriots defeated just *one* team with a record above .500.
That win was against the 12-5 Bills in Week 5. The Bills bounced back to split the season series in Week 15. They're the only team the Pats played all year with a winning season. Maybe that's why Marshawn Lynch is all-in on the Seahawks.
Yeah, that was some scary schedule the Pats played. They saw the 3-14 Jets twice, the 7-10 Dolphins twice. They also tangled with the 3-14 Titans, the 3-14 Cardinals, and the 3-14 Raiders. Yeah, and they lost to Vegas. The Patriots also vanquished the 4-13 Giants and the entire NFC South, home of the 8-9 division champion Panthers.
New England's strength of schedule - and I use that term "strength" lightly - was .356, by far the easiest in the league. By the way, their conference title opponent, the Broncos, had the second-easiest in the league at .422.
The Seahawks' opponents' final winning percentage was .498, 15th easiest in the NFL. Now, by the very nature of the concept, a successful team will wind up with an easier strength of schedule, as their wins are obviously losses for their opponents.
Conversely, a bad team sees its losses pile up as wins for the opposition, in part creating that overall strength of schedule rating. But it's still just one game per opponent, two in the case of division contests. So the impact simply isn't that strong.
In the case of the Seahawks, they played two games against the moribund Cardinals, which gave Seattle a slightly weaker schedule, while making Arizona's more difficult. Of course, the Seahawks also faced the Rams and 49ers twice, which made their schedule even more difficult.
Instead of the mediocre AFC North, with just two winning teams, Seattle faced the AFC South, powered by the 13-4 Jaguars and the 12-5 Texans. The Colts were no pushovers at 8-9 (and were 8-5 coming into the game). Sure, Seattle played Tennessee, but New England had that pleasure as well.
The best offense the Patriots have faced was the Bills, ranked fourth in the NFL with 481 points. The next-best offense New England played was Baltimore, which ranked 11th in the league. So the Pats' mighty defense faced a top-ten offense just twice. Buffalo hung 20, then 35 points on New England. So when they actually play a team that can score, the defense is average.
The Seahawks have been far more dominant, as they won only four games by less than a touchdown. Their three losses were by a total of nine points. Seattle did this while facing the league's most prolific offense in the Rams, who scored 518 in the regular season.
The 49ers ranked 10th in points scored, while both the Jaguars and Colts ranked in the top-ten in scoring as well. So Seattle played six games against top-ten offenses, while New England just played two. And the Seahawks still gave up fewer points than any other team in the NFL.
Yes, I know Patriots fans are chomping at the bit with this: what about the Rams? In their first meeting, the defense kept Los Angeles in check, but Sam Darnold played his worst game of the season. That Week 11 loss looked very costly at the time, and criticism of Darnold reached its peak. His teammates had a different opinion, though.
The guys with the curly-horned helmets fared much better in their next two meetings against the Seattle defense. However, Darnold and the offense came to the rescue in both contests. The defense did just enough to keep the Seahawks in the game.
Overall, the Seahawks allowed an average of 26.3 points to the Rams. Hardly great, but still four points under the average of the league's most potent offense. The Pats held the Bills to 27.5 points, just one point less than their average.
So, sure, the Patriots are a good team. The defense was great against the Chargers, I'll give them that. But they beat the no-offense Texans, then barely squeaked by the Broncos, who started a guy who hadn't thrown a pass in two years.
Thanks, I'll take the team that's actually beaten the good teams, the team that's led by Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth Walker III. I'll take the team with defensive monsters like Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, and DeMarcus Lawrence. That would be the next Super Bowl Champions, your Seattle Seahawks.