People are right to have their doubts. Sam Darnold has had one good season out of seven in his career. He was forced into starting for a bad New York Jets team at the beginning of his career, bounced around a bit until he played well for the 2024 Minnesota Vikings, and he turned that into a big contract with the Seattle Seahawks.
But Darnold is not guaranteed to be good again. Ever.
With Minnesota, the quarterback had the advantage of working with one of the best offensive minds in the NFL in the person of Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, plus throwing to an excellent receiver group that included Justin Jefferson. Seattle has weapons, but not like Minnesota had.
How long with Sam Darnold remain as the Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback?
The same chance exists that Sam Darnold will revert to his pre-2024 form as much as being a high-level success in 2025. One NFL analyst believes the former will happen and the quarterback will lose his job at some point during the season.
Bleacher Report's Alex Kay lists Darnold among five quarterbacks who have a decent chance of going from QB1 in Week 1 to backup by Week 18. Kay's reasoning is simple: Sam Darnold is unlikely to replicate the kind of season he had last season, when he had never come close to doing that kind of thing before.
The fallacy in the argument comes when Kay has Darnold being replaced with Jalen Milroe. The Seahawks defense should be good enough that the unit carries the team through games even when the offense fails. This means Seattle could still be battling for a postseason spot even if Darnold is struggling.
Putting a not-yet-ready Milroe into important action probably would sink the season. Or it could mean that head coach Mike Macdonald already thinks the season is sunk if that happens. The more likely replacement for Darnold would be veteran Drew Lock.
Of course, Seattle has gotten its share of disrespect for the decision to sign Sam Darnold. The truth is that he could turn out to be excellent. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's system should be a great fit for the quarterback, and the Seahawks certainly have a number of very good skill position players.
Unsurprisingly, Alex Kay also lists Russell Wilson as one of the other quarterbacks who could be replaced during the season. The former Seattle Seahawks QB and current New York Giants QB1 is basically set up for failure. The Giants also signed veteran Jameis Winston and took Jaxson Dart in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft.
Former Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith did not make the list. He has shown up in articles with the same theme. But to be fair, who do the Las Vegas Raiders have that would be close to replacing Smith? No one.