I know what you’re thinking. “Hey, bozo, the Seattle Seahawks are a comfortable 5-seed with a 90% chance of reaching the postseason.” I know.
I believe that the Seahawks have the makings of a Super Bowl contender, and that they’ll make the playoffs without much of a hitch. But from an analysis angle, a lot can happen in six games. And Seahawks fans shouldn’t pretend that they didn’t just watch Seattle play arguably their two least impressive performances of the season.
Luckily, there’s a bit of a buffer between Thanksgiving and the Seahawks’ final three-game stretch that will ultimately determine their playoff standings. Despite the odds in their favor, though, Seahawks fans know the one factor that can hold this team back from reaching its lofty goals, even before the postseason arrives.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is the defining factor in a crowded NFC Wild Card battle
Ultimately, that factor is Sam Darnold. At times, Darnold has looked like an MVP candidate, and at others, it’s clear he’s still trying to break through his own ceiling. Two weeks ago, in the loss to the Los Angeles Rams, he provided the most brutal of examples, throwing four interceptions in a two-point loss.
The volatility of his performances in critical games, such as the Week 1 loss to San Francisco, the unravelling of an otherwise spotless performance with a game-sealing interception against Tampa Bay, and the blunder against the Rams, stand out because those are the top NFC matchups Seattle has faced this season, and none went their way.
Now, San Francisco is in the mix, barreling toward a Wild Card spot. Los Angeles can take the NFC West with a Week 16 win over Seattle and a couple of meetings against Arizona falling in their favor. Then there’s the NFC North race to keep an eye out for.
Last year, Seattle missed the playoffs at 10-7. They won’t fall that far, but they could certainly find themselves missing out once again with a strong record if they stumble down the stretch in their meetings against the Rams and 49ers.
Carolina isn’t exactly the easiest win to come by in the NFC either. In the meantime, Detroit can surge with key wins in the division, while a December 14th meeting with the Rams will carry a highly impactful result for Seattle.
That’s why all the pressure reverts to Darnold, who has been shaky in these critical matchups. That final three-game stretch will carry a mountain of pressure for the Seahawks as the NFC race seems bound to leave at least one deserving team out of the postseason action.
Short of winning the NFC West outright, Seattle is playing with fire hanging around in a highly competitive and bloated race for the three Wild Card spots.
Darnold must flip that script to prove that the Rams aren’t his kryptonite and that he can step up in high-stakes atmospheres. If he can’t, then Seattle will watch on as two NFC North teams and the 49ers take up the Wild Card spots while knowing full well what the difference was.