The NFL is learning that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a real No. 1 wide receiver. It’s almost hard not to oversell his rise from a miscategorized slot receiver to a bona fide leader in the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year race.
But not only has Smith-Njigba jumped to the top of the race, he may very well be positioned to run away with the award already. He leads the NFL in receiving yards and yards per target. His reception total ranks fourth, and he ranks second in first downs.
But it’s not just his own production that should position him as the clear-cut front-runner to take the award. It’s the state of the competition, too.
As the Seattle Seahawks climb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is gaining ground in the OPOY race
As far as receivers go, Smith-Njigba was effectively playing catch-up to NFC West rival Puka Nacua, whose receptions, targets, and first downs all lead the league. But, he’s going to miss some time with the ankle injury he sustained against the Baltimore Ravens this week.
To be fair, Nacua makes up a massive portion of the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive production. When he comes back, he’ll continue to put up heavy volume numbers. But his missing even just a week or two could open the door for JSN to position himself as the league’s most decorated wideout.
Currently, Smith-Njigba is on a record pace, trending toward 119 receptions, 1,970 yards and eight or nine touchdowns, just based on his production through six weeks. Obviously, there are eleven games to go, and a lot can happen. But such a stat line would be tough to ignore, no matter what anyone else does.
Even if Smith-Njigba doesn’t reach such lofty numbers, so long as he stays healthy himself, he can gain ground on Nacua’s impressive start. If he can keep pace ahead of him, then that’s one less favorite to challenge him for the award.
Still, Smith-Njigba will have another hurdle to clear. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL in every meaningful rushing category, is the betting favorite (+150) to win the award through six weeks, according to FanDuel. Assuming he stays healthy and the Colts keep up their unexpected hot streak, he’s on pace for 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Smith-Njigba is behind him at +470. He can close that ground so long as he keeps pace as the Seahawks' dominant weapon on the outside. After all, even if he falls somewhat short of his projections, he’s still on the doorstep of a critical NFL record that has brought receivers the award before. The same wouldn’t be said for Taylor, even if he exceeds his current pace up to a certain point.
Of course, JSN can’t win the award in six weeks any more than Nacua could in five. But the pieces are falling into place for him to have a stark advantage in the race, and the hype is justifiably building thanks to his volume and production. All it takes now is consistency through the end of the season, and few players will have an argument to challenge him for the award.