The Seattle Seahawks are 4-2 and face the Cleveland Browns in Week 8. The Browns have the same record as Seattle. Cleveland will be missing their starting quarterback, but they have an excellent defense. This could be a very low-scoring game.
One concern in this game could also be the same as a potential positive for Seattle. The Seahawks defense has looked much better in recent games. While Week 8 will mark the third time this year they will have faced a backup quarterback, they also faced the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow and did a good job against him.
Still, is the improvement of Seattle's defense for real? And is their run defense definitely better than it was in 2022? We might find out the answers to those questions against the Browns. Here are some predictions.
Seattle Seahawks pass for fewer than 150 yards
Since the beginning of the 2022 when Geno Smith became QB1 for the Seahawks, Seattle has thrown for fewer than 150 yards twice. One of those times, however, Seattle won. Sometimes teams simply don't need to throw that much simply because the team has scored in different ways, but that's not the case with Seattle.
In 2022, Seattle defeated the New York Jets 23-6 yet Smith passed for 148 yards because Smith was sacked 4 times for almost 40 yards. Seattle did run well against New York, though, as Kenneth Walker had 133 yards. Seattle scored twice through the air, though, even though they didn't collect a ton of passing yards.
In Week 1 of 2023, Seattle did extremely on offense overall. Geno Smith passed for 112 yards before taking into account he was sacked twice for 18 yards. Seattle also gained just 85 yards rushing.
My point in saying all that is that even if Seattle passes for 150 yards in Week 8 against the Cleveland Browns, things might be OK. Cleveland has a well-rounded defense, but they are best against the pass where they've allowed a quarterback rating of just 79.1, sixth in the league, and 6.6 yards per attempt, which ranks ninth. Seattle's offensive line hasn't been great at blocking for Smith the last few weeks so I wouldn't think he would have lots of time against Cleveland to throw for many yards either.
Browns have more yards rushing than passing
Cleveland won't have quarterback Deshaun Watson in Week 8 as he is dealing with a rotator cuff injury. That might actually be a good thing for Cleveland. Watson hasn't been good since he was traded to Cleveland before the 2022 season. He played only six games last year after serving a suspension for most of the first past of the year. In 10 total games with the Browns, Watson's quarterback rating is just 79.8.
P.J. Walker is not any better than Watson has been. He has four years experience in the NFL and has played in 17 games, starting eight of those. He has thrown for 5 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. His career quarterback rating is an awful 60.3. Still, he has been credited with two fourth quarter comebacks in 2023 and that is tied for the league lead.
But Walker's normally poor performance (though if I don't say it here it might happen: Watch Walker complete 70 percent of his passes for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Seahawks) isn't the reason that Cleveland will outrush their passing offense against Seattle. The fact is that Cleveland is a good running team and they should always put up nearly as many rushing yards as passing yards.
Cleveland is seventh in the NFL in yards per rush (4.5) and they are also seventh in total rushing yards (885). Every other team in the top 15 on that last list has played one more game than the Browns have. Cleveland will use several backs, such as Pierre Strong and Kareem Hunt, and each is capable of running for 75 yards against Seattle. This will be Seattle's biggest challenge facing the run so far in 2023 even though Cleveland won't have Jerome Ford (ankle) in Week 8.
Frank Clark gets Seattle's only sack of the game
Cleveland does allow sacks. They are currently 24th in the number of sacks given up in 2023 at 20 and almost every team in the bottom half of the league with sacks allowed has played one more game than Cleveland. This means on a per-game average, the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL at protecting their quarterbacks. (By the way, Seattle quarterbacks have been sacked 13 times which is seventh-best in the league.)
So why will Seattle only get one sack against the Browns even though Seattle is fifth in the league in sacks with 23 (11 of those came in one game against the Giants, though)? Because I think Seattle blitzes a bit less in Week 8, especially blitzes from the secondary with guys like Devon Witherspoon. The smarter move is that Seattle plays more straight-up to try to slow the Browns' run game.
Plus, the Seahawks' secondary should be better than the Browns' passing game. Allowing Riq Woolen and Tre Brown, specifically, to cover their guys one-on-one keeps more defenders available to stop Pierre Strong, Kareem Hunt, and friends. This also could be a great game for Jamal Adams as his aggressiveness can help crunch the line.
Still, I think Cleveland keeps with the run throughout the game because it eats clock and keeps the ball out of P.J. Walker's hands. Walker is also capable of running decently well, too, and that shouldn't be overlooked. But he will drop back some and I think Frank Clark on one of his limited snaps gets home for a sack and this will set off a frenzy of happiness for 12s.
Seahawks win a low-scoring game that only defensive coaches can love
I think this will be an ugly game for most NFL fans to watch and that's perfectly fine. 12s have gotten used to Pete Carroll teams winning close games that the team seems like it should lose but the wins come in weird ways. The point in the NFL, of course, is to just get a victory no matter how a team needs to get it. A 3-2 final is as good as an 83-0 win.
I also realize that the Browns beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 39-38. But look at the box score. Many of the ways Cleveland won and scored are not necessarily replicable. Not every week is a team going to recover a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown, for instance. And not every week is a team going to score 39 points when their quarterbacks combined to go 16 of 37 for just 183 yards, zero touchdowns, but 2 interceptions.
Still, Cleveland's defense is good enough to limit a Seahawks offense struggling mightily in the red zone. Seattle has scored touchdowns on 12 of their 25 red zone trips, 21st in the league. The Browns have scored TDs on nine of 14 red zone trips, though 14 is the third-fewest red zone trips in the league.
This game will come down to how well Jason Myers kicks the football on field goal attempts. Seattle needs to go for points every chance it has, even if that means a few 45-yard-plus field goal tries. Seattle's defense will win this game overall, though, and the final will be 16-12.