The Seattle Seahawks are 8-8 after an awful and humiliating Week 18 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Seattle could be a week away from making the playoffs or a week away from preparing in full for the coming offseason. At this point, and as bad as Seattle's defense played against the Steelers, we should expect Seattle to miss the postseason this year.
The 2024 Seahawks should look different than in previous years. There could be some coaching changes. The roster should be overhauled a bit.
The following four players might still need to prove their place on the team for next year. Sure, there are a lot of players that Seattle might need to move on. But this isn't a roster breakdown but a list of four players whose future with the team might be iffy.
Seahawks need Quandre Diggs to be special versus the Cardinals
In the last few seasons with Seattle, Quandre Diggs has started a little slowly but then improved as the season went on and was so good by the end of the year that he was honored with a Pro Bowl nod. He had multiple interceptions with Seattle each season from 2019 through 2022 and was a solid tackler as well. But this year, Diggs looks like he has lost a step and after starting slowly he didn't get much better.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Diggs is graded as the 10th-worst safety in the NFL in 2023-24. In fact, he grades even lower than Jamal Adams. Diggs' grade is a career-worst. So is his quarterback rating allowed of 107.0. He has allowed 22 completions on 34 targets for 10.5 yards a target (second-worst in his career). He also has just one interception. Diggs has whiffed on 10.9 percent of his tackle attempts which is his worst mark since he was traded to Seattle in the middle of 2019.
But the biggest issue with Diggs going into 2024 is the size of his contract. His cap hit next year is $21,262,500 and his dead cap is $10,262,500. If the Seahawks were to release Diggs this offseason, they would save $11 million in cap space. Diggs will be 31 years old in 2024 and while that isn't ancient, Seattle likely needs to find a young safety in the NFL draft to replace Diggs. Unless, of course, he somehow comes up with 3 picks in Week 18 and returns two of them for touchdowns.
Seattle needs almost anything from Darrell Taylor
This year was not the one for Darrell Taylor to have his worst year in the NFL. In his two prior seasons (he didn't play in his rookie year because of an injury), Taylor flashed only the ability to chase down quarterbacks. His raw statistics look OK, but when one digs a bit deeper they will see an edge rusher who gets his sacks in bunches but then disappears for many games at a stretch.
Taylor began the year more as a backup as Boye Mafe had overtaken him as the starter opposite Uchenna Nwosu. That plan worked fairly decently until Nwosu got injured in Week 7 and Taylor had to take a lot of Nwosu's reps. One reason, however, that Seattle has been so disastrous against the run in the last 11 games is that Nwosu hasn't been available for 10 of them. Taylor, unfortunately, has been.
Taylor is on pace for career lows in sacks, quarterback hits, quarterback knockdowns, and tackles for loss this year. He will end up with more snaps this season than last and fall just short of his 2021 number. He has never been a good tackler - as an edge rusher who is supposed to help set the edge against the run, he needs to be - but he has missed 17.2 percent of his tackle attempts this year.
Because Taylor missed his rookie year of 2020 with an injury, he is only a restricted free agent this coming offseason. Seattle should put a tender on him so that if he signs elsewhere the Seahawks will pick up a draft pick. But if no team signs him quickly, Taylor should be released before 2024. But then he will probably have 5 sacks in Week 18 and make Seattle think they should keep him for another year.
Seahawks need to make sure Geno Smith is worth his 2024 pay hike
Unlike the previous two players, this won't be about Geno Smith's poor play. Smith hasn't been as good as he was in 2022, but he also hasn't been as terrible as many seem to want to believe. Smith's interception percentage of 1.9 is the same as last year and is a very good number. The quarterbacks who have worse interception percentages this year? The list includes Brock Purdy, Tue Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence.
Smith currently sits 15th in passer rating so barely into the top half of the league but still better than 17 other quarterback situations in the NFL. His overall QBR is 12th, though. Smith is tied for league-lead in game-winning drives with 4. I am not saying Geno Smith is a top-five quarterback or a perfect QB, but the majority of the league has a worse quarterback situation than do the Seahawks.
The question about Smith, though, is about the future. My guess is that Seattle has Smith as QB1 in Week 1 of 2024. The team has a lot of other needs in the 2024 NFL Draft such as defensive line, edge rusher, safety, and linebacker. If anyone points to this year and says, "Geno Smith is the problem and the team will be better in 2024 without him," that person probably just doesn't think Smith can do much right.
But for the future of the team, say five years down the road, should Seattle take a quarterback in the first round in 2024 and move on from Smith? We can assume the defense won't be good again in 2024 unless there are coaching changes so 12s shouldn't expect a Super Bowl run soon. Releasing Smith would save $13.8 million. Still, if Smith has a terrible Week 18, the team might make a change at QB this offseason.
Seattle needs more greatness from Tyler Lockett
This is not a diss of Tyler Lockett. Lockett is one of the most likable players in Seahawks history and he has been a great receiver for many years. My hope is that Lockett can bounce back to pre-2023 levels if he stays on the roster. He along with DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could form a fantastic trio in 2024 after a year of experience for JSN. But the rise of JSN appears to possibly be happening at the same time as the decline of Lockett.
Lockett has 118 targets this year, the second-most of his career. His yards per reception, though, is 107. which is the second-lowest of his career. His catch rate of 65.3 percent is his lowest since 2017. He is on pace for his fewest touchdown catches since that same year. And he will likely end up with his fewest receiving yards since 2017, too. But Lockett wasn't bad in 2017, he simply wasn't as big a part of the passing game as he is now. He only had 71 targets in 2017, for instance.
The real problem with Lockett is how much his cap hit goes up in 2024. His career high in cap hit is this year and is $11,060,000. Next year that jumps to $26,795,000. If Seattle released him they would save a little over $7 million in cap space this coming offseason. I am not saying I want Lockett to no longer be on the team, but extremely difficult financial decisions have to be made in the NFL.
My hope is that Tyler Lockett has an explosive game against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18 and has something like 15 catches for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. I am just not sure he is capable of that. Lockett doesn't have a 100-yard receiving game this year and in his last three games he has caught just 12 of his 25 targets for 112 yards. Plus, he hasn't caught a touchdown pass since Week 10. (And for those who want to blame Geno Smith for Lockett's production, compare that to DK Metcalf who is averaging a career-high 17.0 yards per catch and has the second-most receiving yards of his career this year.)