The Seattle Seahawks finished the 2023 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs for the second time in three years. Partly due to that, head coach Pete Carroll was removed from his gig and Seattle is currently looking for his replacement. We know, of course, that Carroll will have zero input in who the Seahawks choose in the 2024 NFL draft so general manager John Schneider will have almost full control over that process for the first time.
This means that Seattle could behave completely differently in this year's draft than in any other. That does not rule out the possibility of Seattle trading back later into the first round to try to pick up a second-round choice. The Seahawks lost their 2024 second-rounder when they traded for defensive lineman Leonard Williams during this season.
In the players that follow, I tried to keep in mind that the Seahawks are currently slated to choose at pick number 16 in 2024. There is no way of knowing, however, which players will rise and fall. The NFL combine will take place from February 29 through March 3 and that will certainly affect how some players are viewed.
Who are the Seahawks top contenders for the team's first selection in the 2024 NFL draft?
Anyone saying, "Oh, that player certainly be around at 16" or "16 is way too high for that player" simply does not know what they speak. Unless the player is Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Marvin Harrison, Jr., any player can go anywhere. But the attempt here was to pick players based on what we currently have.
I also broke down five players by different position groups instead of just five quarterbacks or five defensive linemen. The Seahawks can go so many different ways it seemed better to go by position than player. But here are five players at different positions Seattle might take first if they stick at pick number 16, plus a couple of other options at each spot.
Seahawks first-round pick contender No. 1
Michael Penix, Jr., QB - Washington
I am not sure the Seahawks choose a quarterback in the first round unless they somehow end up with two first-rounders by working a trade or three. Seattle has more pressing needs than quarterback, no matter what some people think of Geno Smith (or Drew Lock). While Seattle choosing a quarterback at some point makes sense as Smith is under contract but Lock is not currently, that could be in the third round or after.
Michael Penix also could go nearly anywhere except in the top two. He has an electric arm with excellent accuracy and he can run around a bit when needed. But as great as he was overall, in his final four games of this season he threw for 6 touchdowns but 4 interceptions and completed. And in his last five games, he completed just 60.3 percent of his passes compared to 65.4 percent for the year overall.
Penix also had a history of injuries at Indiana before he transferred to Washington. At Washington, he rarely got hit as his offensive line was terrific. He won't have equal blocking in the NFL.
Penix's arm talent, however, could move him into the top ten of the draft. Or he could fall into the second round. On ESPN's Mel Kiper's latest quarterback rankings for the 2024 draft, Penix is fourth and Penix is 15th overall.
Other QB options:
- Jayden Daniels, LSU
- J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Seahawks first-round pick contender No. 2
Jared Verse, Edge rusher - Florida State
Because NFL teams love edge rushers, Jared Verse could go higher than 16. But this is not the greatest of edge rush groups this year. Only two edge rushers are ranked above Verse, for instance, on Kiper's big board, but none in the top ten. Verse has all the athleticism to be a high-impact pass rusher but has the strength to help set the edge against the run.
Verse is best in a 4-3. I have read recent comments (and heard on Seattle radio) since Pete Carroll was fired that the Seahawks run a 3-4 and the next head coach or defensive coordinator will need to blah blah blah. With a new coach, everything the Seahawks have done in the past is gone. The new coach might love a 4-3 front and that is what Seattle would run.
Verse, though, was inconsistent in production at Florida State. For instance, he had 9 sacks this past season but 4.5 of those came in two different games. That is the same trend that current Seahawk pass rusher Darrell Taylor has and Taylor should not be playing because he is too inconsistent. Verse might simply be a boom or bust prospect.
Other edge rusher options:
- Bralen Trice, Washington
- Dallas Turner, Alabama
Seahawks first-round pick contender No. 3
Kamren Kinchens, Safety - Miami
Seattle could likely trade down for Kinchens and take him later in the first round or early in the second. He is the best safety coming into the draft, but this isn't exactly a stellar safety class. Kinchens does offer a lot of versatility, though. He is good deep in coverage and can also play the run fairly well. He is a lot like Julian Love.
The real reason the Seahawks might need to take a safety, however, is because, except for Love, they need to revamp the position group. Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are not getting younger and neither had good years in 2023. Both also carry massive cap hits next year. Should the Seahawks release both, the team would save about $17 million in cap room. That doesn't count the extra $9 million Seattle would save by releasing Adams with a post-June 1 designation.
If Seattle does replace Diggs and Adams, they need at least one player to take their spots. Julian Love might fill one role and Kinchens could the other. Love is only 25 years old still so a Love and Kinchens combo could be Seattle's starting safety duo for the next five years.
Other safety options:
- Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
- Calen Bullock, USC
Seahawks first-round pick contender No. 4
Jer'Zhan Newton, Defensive line - Illinois
Let's assume Seattle is going to lose Leonard Williams in free agency. He was terrific after joining the Seahawks after the first third of the season, but he probably wants more in his next contract than the Seahawks are able to pay. Seattle will have Jarran Reed and Dre'Mont Jones back unless Seattle releases Jones. But every good defense needs a rotation of productive defensive linemen and not just one or two decent players.
Newton might need to gain about 10 pounds once in the NFL but he is still 6'2" and 295 pounds. He has excellent athleticism and great strength. He also stays consistent from game to game and does not back down from any opponent. Newton will likely be taken by a team and be near Pro Bowl quality for the next 10 years.
Newton also can play at any spot along the defensive line. For example, he lined up at nose guard in well over 100 snaps. He can play end or tackle. This would allow him to be a three-down player who will provide a good pass rush and be a beast against the run. He might not be Jalen Carter, but he also is not far off.
Other DL options:
- Leonard Taylor III, Miami
Seahawks first-round pick contender No. 5
Taliese Fuaga, Offensive tackle - Oregon State
Two drafts ago, I did not expect the Seattle Seahawks to be in a position to need to take an offensive tackle anytime soon. In the 2022 NFL draft, Seattle chose left tackle Charles Cross in the first round and right tackle Abraham Lucas in the third round. Cross has not made a Pro Bowl yet but he has been pretty good, though slightly inconsistent.
The bigger concern is Lucas. He clearly is struggling with a knee injury that seemingly happened in college and an injury that does not seem to get better long-term with any amount of rest. Not only was he able to play in just six games, he also had to be rotated out many times. Lucas allowed 17 quarterback pressures in 182 pass block snaps. This probably wasn't from lack of ability but lack of fitness. The likely outcome with Lucas is he is never able to stay healthy for long stretches at a time and he needs to be replaced.
If this is so, the Seahawks should look for high-end talent early in the 2024 draft. Fuaga should be available at 16. He is big enough to play right away at 6'6" and 335 pounds and he gave up just one sack in the last two years. But he has the same kind of mentality as Lucas which means Fuaga has a mean-streak and will take personal offense to any defender trying to beat him.