The Seattle Seahawks have uncovered some true gems in the draft. While some names are obvious, I found a few surprises scattered among the diamonds and the rhinestones of the last 10 years. There were some lean years, but these players more than made up for it.
My decade begins with 2013, so we'll miss out on some of the Seahawks' best draft gems ever. Sadly, 2013's draft was nearly a complete washout, and 2014 wasn't far behind. I pushed the start back a year because it's simply too soon to rate a player based on their rookie campaign. Even their first two seasons can be misleading. If you're not convinced of that, compare the careers of Freddie Swain and Golden Tate. We've got you covered if you crave a deeper dive into every Seahawks draft,
Now, any dope can make a list of players he likes. I'm walking, talking, and typing proof of that. This time, I decided to take a different tack. I tried to provide consistent reasoning for my nominations for the Hawks' biggest draft gems. Most people would consider a low draft pick who has a successful career in the NFL as a gem. Well, duh. What I tried to do here is quantify the value of the players' draft positions and compare it to their production on the field. Yes, dear 12s, it's gonna get mathy.
Here be dragons (and Seattle Seahawks): the mathy parts
For lack of a better term, let's call this Relative Production. That is the relationship between draft position and performance. The higher the production and the later in the draft, the more value that player produced. The concept of draft value is pretty well-known. The highest draft pick has the most value, with each following pick descending in value. You can see one version of the chart here, courtesy of Over The Cap.
For the other half of the equation, I used Approximate Value, a measure created by pro-football-reference. A quick-and-dirty explanation: it provides one number to compare values across positions. As in, how valuable is that nickel corner compared to the starting tight end, who mainly blocks? For a deeper explanation of the method, click here. So we have our two measures for our comparisons. Let's begin, 12s!
Math and more math - and a comparison of Seahawks to make it easier
Two examples from opposite ends of the spectrum: Malik McDowell's 35th overall selection had a draft value of 1198. He produced 6 points of Approximate Value in his career. 6 divided by 1198 yields a relative production of .50, which is abysmal. Yes, I multiplied the result by 100 for those checking my math, and he still earned less than one point. Let's look at another Seahawks player, one who had a bigger impact than McDowell, but wasn't exactly a star, either. Wide receiver David Moore was a seventh-round pick, number 226 overall. His draft value was 253 points. At 12 points of average value, his relative production is 4.74.
But that only brings us to what these players have produced so far. The next step involves predicting what they'll produce over their entire careers. If I had a real answer for that, I'd be the most successful general manager in the history of the league. So with some seat-of-the-pants linear regression analysis - educated guesswork, basically - I projected career values for each player. It gets markedly harder with players at the start of their careers. CJ. Prosise provides just one cautionary tale.
Okay, back to Moore. Let's assume - a big assumption, true - that he has a bit of a resurgence and gets in a couple more seasons before he retires. I brought his career AV points to 14, which gave him a final relative production of 5.53. With a final adjustment for his position, based on Ethan Young's MAVEM work, I arrived at a final relative value of 4.94. I'd say that most 12s would agree that David Moore was at least ten times more valuable than Malik McDowell. So in a nutshell, that's how the method works. Alright, let's get to those gems! All draft data is from pro-football-reference.com.
As a point of reference, the entire Seahawks draft of 2013 produced just 57 AV points. That's exactly the same production as Frank Clark. The total value of those draft picks was 4,928 points. Seattle got the same total value of all that draft capital as they got from Clark, spread between 11 players. It wouldn't be so bad if that were their production in one season, but that is the total of their career production. The relative production of that entire draft class was 1.16. Woohoo, that's twice as good as Malik McDowell. Hey, at least we got the Captain of Techno Thursday out of it.
The Seahawks semiprecious stones of the past decade's drafts
12. Will Dissly, 4th round, 2018, draft value 574, current AV 12, projected career AV 31, Relative production 5.40
I expect Uncle Will will see a bit more use as a receiver, hence the relatively large bump in his career value.
11. Kenneth Walker, 2nd round, 2022, draft value 1118 current AV 16, projected career AV 72, relative production 6.72
Walker is one of those players that's extremely difficult to project. His career stats could be better than LeSean McCoy's, or fall off like C.J. Spiller's. Obviously, his relative production could be much higher or lower. Due to his relatively high draft status, it's never going to be off-the-charts good.
10. Jarran Reed, 2nd round, 2016, draft value 1028, current AV 51 projected career AV 63, relative production 7.59
Reed might be a surprise, but he's been a pretty effective player so far and should have at least a few good years left.
9. Frank Clark, 2nd round, 2015, draft value 900 current AV 57, projected career AV 57, relative production 7.81
If he adds as much as one point of average value, I think we'd all be shocked. Sometimes, players just fall off a cliff. I'd love to see him bounce back, but I wouldn't bet on it.
8. Boye Mafe, 2nd round, 2022, draft value 1131 current AV 8, projected career AV 72, relative production 7.85
Like K9, Mafe's career arc could follow wildly different paths. I tried to aim for the middle and see him with a longer career than Clark.
7. Mark Glowinski, 4th round, 2015, draft value 518, current AV 46, projected career AV 48, relative production 11.48
Now there's a name I know you didn't expect. Glowinski was a solid player for all four of his years with the Colts, and may still have a bit left in the tank after a tough year with the Giants.
6. Quinton Jefferson, 5th round, 2016, draft value 471 points, current AV 31, predicted career AV 46, relative production 12.10
Another surprising player, sort of a mirror universe version of Glowinski. Never spectacular but always productive as a reliable guy in the trenches. Both players have made the most of their opportunity as day three draftees.
The top five Seahawks draft gems: sapphires and diamonds all
5. Michael Dickson, 5th round, 2018, draft value 464 points, current AV 18, predicted career AV 57, relative production 12.33
Yeah, I cheated on this a bit, I'll admit it. Ethan Young - creator of the MAVEM tool among other cool mathy stuff - doesn't believe kickers or punters should be drafted. That's because on average, their approximate value shows they aren't worth a draft pick. That's the thing, though. Michael Dickson is as far from an average punter as you could get. So I adjusted his adjustment a bit. Sue me. Reggie Roby's career AV was 43 and Shane Lechler's was 69. I'm very comfortable slotting Dickson between the two.
4. Riq Woolen, 5th round, 2022, draft value 451, current AV 14, projected career AV 67, relative production 12.64
Like Walker, Woolen's career numbers could take wildly different paths. as with all of the younger players, I did my best to be cautiously optimistic. In Woolen's case, I think he bounces back to a level closer to his rookie season for a few years before he starts that inexorable decline that waits for us all. Dang, that was grim. I need to watch some cat videos.
3. DK Metcalf, 2nd round, 2019, draft value 892 points, current AV 50, projected career AV 108, relative production 13.40
Because you're gonna ask, yes, I put his career AV ahead of Calvin Johnson's career mark of 94 points. Megatron got sick of busting his butt for what was then a crappy organization and hung up his cleats after nine seasons. He retired after his sixth straight Pro Bowl season, after posting 88 catches for 1,214 yards and nine TDs. I'm not saying that DK is better, just that he'll play longer. And of course, he may not.
2. Tyler Lockett, 3rd round, 2015 draft value 854, current AV 78, projected career AV 104, relative production 13.48
Yes, I see Tyler Lockett as sticking around longer than some might think, a lot longer, in fact. Lockett's AV for the past five seasons: 9, 10, 11, 9, 8. Just four more seasons averaging about 700 yards and four TDs a year would get him to that 104 number, and that's certainly doable. Or he may retire after 2025 and expand his burgeoning real estate business, film production company, philanthropic efforts - you know, all the boring stuff he likes.
1. Chris Carson, 7th round, 2017, draft value 204 career AV 31, relative production 15.86
Come on, if you didn't know Chris Carson wasn't going to be the star of this little show, you haven't been paying attention. Carson was pretty easy to calculate, as there are no future stats to project, unfortunately. Even so, the gap between Carson at number one and Lockett at two is the same as the distance between Lockett and Glowinski at number seven. Now that man was an absolute diamond. You may insert the stud joke of your choosing.