In Week 11, the Seattle Seahawks face a team that has been a thorn in their side for a decade, the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams aren't overly good in 2023, but they always seem good to beat Seattle. Seattle is 6-3 and the Rams are 3-6.
This is almost a must-win for Seattle. After Los Angeles, Seattle will face the San Francisco 49ers twice, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Philadelphia Eagles in a four-game stretch. A win in one of those games would be nice, but if Seattle loses to the Rams the Seahawks could be 6-8 by the time Week 16 comes around.
So what will happen in Week 11? And how will Geno Smith do? Here are three guesses.
Geno Smith has his best day with the Seattle Seahawks ever
I know that many 12s want the Seahawks to move on from Geno Smith but Smith isn't quite done with Seattle just yet. While he had a very good game in Week 10 (though, again, many fans seem to think Smith was not very good somehow), he wasn't very good in several previous weeks before the game against the Washington Commanders. Smith had 8 turnovers in the last four games before having zero turnovers against the Commanders.
Smith can be a bit streaky. In the first half of 2022, he was very good. In the stretch since then, not nearly as good. Maybe Week 10 is the beginning of great things again for Smith. The Rams do have Aaron Donald, possibly the greatest defensive player ever, but overall they aren't great getting after quarterbacks as they are 26th in pressure percentage, 27th in hurry percentage, and 25th in sacks. Smith should have time to throw.
The Rams are also 26th in yards allowed per catch so Smith should be able to pass for a few explosive plays for once. At the end of Week 10 it finally felt like Smith was finding a great connection with DK Metcalf. I think Smith gets almost 400 yards passing and Metcalf gets two touchdowns and 150 yards receiving.
The Rams dominate time of possession
And Seattle is going to need those explosive plays because the Rams are going to eat up a lot of clock against the Seahawks' defense. Seattle allows 45.5 percent of third downs to be converted (31st) and the Rams are 10th in the NFL in converting third downs (42.1). Seattle is also 29th in allowing opponents to keep the ball for an average of 2:57 a drive.
Matthew Stafford is the worst kind of quarterback for Seattle to face as well. He knows his offense extremely well, both potential and limitations, and he has been around the league long enough to know when to not try to do too much. He will use what Seattle's defense gives him and he will be patient and not try to go big all the time.
Plus, his best receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, are both truly possession receivers, able to consistently pick up third downs if a cornerback plays off them enough on third and short. My guess is that Los Angeles will have a lot of these kinds of situations on Sunday and take advantage of most of them.
The hope is that even if the Rams do control the clock and if several of those drives end up with points being scored they are field goals and not touchdowns. The Seahawks red zone offense is going to need to be terrific.
Seattle sneaks past the Rams after building a solid lead
So far I have guessed (most likely incorrectly) that Seattle will have several splashy plays offensively while defensively they allow the Rams to control the clock. So how will Seattle have enough time to score enough points to win the game and move to 7-3? My guess is that the offense gets a little bit of help.
The Los Angeles Rams are not a great coverage team. Los Angeles has allowed 11.2 yards per punt return, 23rd in the NFL, and 30.3 yards per kick return, 28th in the league. Meanwhile, DeeJay Dallas is having a very good year returning punts and kicks for Seattle. He is fifth in the league in punt returns at 11.7 and is averaging 25.7 yards per kick return. This would rank second if Dallas had enough returns to qualify.
Dallas isn't normally overly explosive but more just a solid returner, but he is a running back and does have some speed. I think he breaks off at least one long kick return and scores either a punt or kick return. That will be 6 more points that the Seahawks didn't count on.
My guess is that Seattle will get out to a two-touchdown lead in the third quarter before the Rams start chipping away. Los Angeles will cut the lead to one late in the fourth quarter before a late Jason Myers field goal makes the spread four points. The Seahawks will win 30-26 and move to 7-3 and set up a first-place showdown with the San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving Day.