The massive first-round mistake Seattle Seahawks must avoid in the 2024 NFL draft

The 2024 NFL draft is likely to look different for the Seattle Seahawks than in the previous two years. Unless Seattle trades up in the first round, the team will not have a top-ten choice. Nor does the team have a second-round pick as Seattle traded that selection away for Leonard Williams midway through the 2023 season. That makes Seattle's first-round selection at No. 16 this year even more important.

Seattle cannot afford to miss on the pick. This is especially true as this will be the first year that general manager John Schneider has full roster control with some input from new head coach Mike Macdonald. The team cannot blame Pete Carroll for anything it does moving forward.

In the 2024 draft, Seattle needs help along the interior of the offensive line, the interior of the defensive line, linebacker, tight end, and possibly safety. Another edge rusher would be nice as well. But one spot Seattle doesn't have a dire need currently is quarterback. Geno Smith is still under contract and has been solid the last two years even when the rest of the team has not been.

Seattle Seahawks should not choose quarterback Bo Nix in the first round

The Seahawks still could be tempted to draft a quarterback first thinking about how the future of the team might go. Macdonald was signed to be the coach for six years so he is not going anywhere anytime soon. He might think he has the pieces defensively to build a good defense with players such as Devon Witherspoon and Boye Mafe.

But Seattle should not take quarterback Bo Nix if he is available at pick 16. The biggest reason is he is the least among the top quarterbacks to be able to fit new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's scheme. Grubb will use the players given him, of course, and hopefully put them in the best situations to succeed, but ultimately, Grubb likes to run a bit and throw deep a lot. This was not what Nix did in college.

During the 2023 season, 27 percent of Nix's throws were behind the line of scrimmage and nearly 40 percent were 0-9 yards. He was efficient on deeper throws as Oregon had excellent receivers, but Nix was helped by being in an offense that schematically maximized his ability. Oregon's design would not work in the NFL because the NFL simply has much faster defensive players.

Nix has a good arm. He is not without talent. But if Seattle is going to take a quarterback in the first round then that quarterback needs to play early in his career and be ready to produce. Nix likely has a higher learning curve than say, Michael Penix, Jr. (and no, I am not saying Seattle should choose Penix either), and Seattle would be better off getting a player that fits a position of need in 2024.

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