Sam Howell is a new Seattle Seahawks quarterback, but he's not the quarterback. In a year or two, he absolutely could be. He might take the Rolling Stones hit to heart: "Time is on my side."
The Seahawks may have started the NFL free agent race slowly, but they picked up speed as it continued. Not to say we told you so, but we told you so. Every year, it seems some 12s want a big splash signing. Every year, the Hawks take their time and make solid deals that prove to be much better for the team overall. Let's look at last year. Which was more important, getting Dre'mont Jones for an average of $17 million, or Jarran Reed, Julian Love, and Bobby Wagner for the same amount? I think you know the answer to that.
We expect to see similar results this year. While other teams made more noise on day one, John Schneider swooped in for perhaps the biggest steal of the free-agent period so far by signing linebacker Tyrel Dodson. Signing a backup quarterback isn't exactly as impactful as a starting linebacker, it's true, But bringing Sam Howell to the Seahawks could be just as big in the long term.
The Seattle Seahawks may have the QB of the future. Maybe.
I'll preface my thoughts on Sam Howell with some thoughts from Lee Vowell, our intrepid site expert. As you may have surmised from my opening statements. I don't think John Schneider brought Howell to the Seahawks to compete for the starting job. Apparently, Adam Schefter thinks that's the case, but he's wrong. Sure, he'll compete for the job, the way any player on an NFL roster competes. But when Schneider said, "Geno is the guy, and Sam will be backing him up."
As reported by John Boyle for seahawks.com, Schneider was asked for clarification on his statement about his view of Howell's status. Seems he made it pretty clear already, but okay, sure, ask again. The Hawks GM responded, " Well I'm sure there's competition, but it's not like we're signing him to go and compete with Geno to be the starter. But he's going to be giving it a run, he's a competitive guy." So I think maybe, just maybe, that means Howell was signed to be the backup quarterback. I think I'll email John and ask him since a lot of 12s are convinced Howell has the QB1 job in his pocket.
Sam Howell has to be more than a backup - just not yet
Now just because Pro Football Focus (our subscription required pals) graded Geno Smith 14th and Sam Howell 33rd is no reason to assume Howell isn't better. Smith's passer rating was 92.1, his QBR 59.5. Howell's rating was 78.9, his QBR 42.2. Geno threw 20 TDs and 9 INTs, Howell 21 each.
But you're right, the pride of the Tar Heels was clearly better. Okay, I don't want to bash him too much. I agree to some extent, that many of his issues were due to the system Howell had around him. He clearly isn't ready to take over the number one job, but he could be with a year or two in the Seahawks system.
I also agree with Mr. Vowell when he wrote that the Seahawks gave up too much for a backup quarterback. Howell should be at least as good as Drew Lock, who just signed for $5 million with the Giants. Saving $4 million on a position you hope never plays a meaningful down is a smart move. Where I disagree is in the projection for him. If the Hawks view Howell as strictly a backup, one who possibly has the potential to start in the future, then they gave up too much to get him.
I believe that Schneider thinks he just signed his quarterback for 2026 and forward, though. Ideally beginning in 2025, as Howell will be in the last year of his rookie deal and Smith has no guaranteed money in the final year of his deal (also 2025). Per Over The Cap, Geno has a massive cap hit in 2025 of $38.5 million. If the Hawks release or trade him, they'd shave $25 million off the bottom line. So I'm sure that when Schneider mentioned that Howell was the same age as several of the top QBs in this draft, he was looking at 2025 with dollar signs in his eyes.
Geno Smith shows how Sam Howell can be the guy
Speaking of Geno Smith, he provides some compelling evidence to see Howell as his successor. Like his new understudy, he suffered under a poor system in his first two seasons in the league. Howell made one start as a rookie, so he didn't quite have the baptism by fire that Geno endured in New York. But when you consider that Smith threw 21 picks and just 12 TDs in his first full season as a starter, those similarities start to crop up.
In his second year, Smith cut his interceptions to 13, but still only threw 13 touchdowns. His passer ratings and QBR for those two seasons look much like Howell's from last year: ratings of 66.5 and 77.5, and QBRs of 41.0 and 45.8. At least Sam Howell threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 21 scores. Sure, it's a different game 10 years later, but it's not that different.
Now I'm not suggesting that Smith had a normal career track. His path to the Pro Bowl was far from ordinary. It would be quite an achievement for Howell to match that growth. But he already has one thing in common with Smith: a lousy offensive coordinator. The Jets had Marty Mornhinweg as the OC. He built his reputation by standing around while Steve Young was QB for the Niners, then later watching Andy Reid coach the Eagles. Without them, he was awful.
And who was Howell's OC? The not-so-exceptional Scott Turner, only got the gig because his daddy, Norv Turner, managed to coach in the league for a thousand years. 15 seasons as a head coach, seven winning seasons. That's Norv's record. Scott's high water mark was the 20th-ranked offense. Howell's QB coach in Washington was the immortal quarterback whisperer Ken Zampese. In his 13 seasons as the Bengals QB coach, they cracked the top 10 in offense just five times. So it's not like he's had the best opportunity to learn. And who were his mentors as quarterbacks? Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke. I'm shocked Howell just didn't retire.
So maybe with decent coaching and a mentor who can actually teach him something, Sam Howell can be a success. He might look a bit more like the guy who has the second-highest career passer rating in the ACC. He might be the guy who threw for 3,000 yards and ran for 800 as a junior at North Carolina. The guy who accounted for 111 TDs in his three years in college. That guy, now could be the Hawks quarterback of the future. That's the Sam Howell that John Schneider sees.